The veteran utility player isn’t going to stay this hot, but time and experience may have helped him reach a new level as a hitter.
Maybe the hardest part of becoming a crafty veteran utilityman is simply getting the opportunity. The role that the soon-to-be 30-year-old Zach McKinstry plays for A.J. Hinch and the Detroit Tigers is one that is more often the province of former starting players who have lost a step, or solid but not standout young prospects that a team is just breaking into the league and trying to develop.
The list of guys who manage to effectively play a bench role for a half decade or more without at least one breakout campaign that keeps teams hoping for more upside isn’t that long. McKinstry is well on his way in his fifth major league season and at least early on, he’s the one who looks to breaking out.
Entering the season, the Tigers were riding high off their surprising playoff run in 2024, but there was trepidation about injuries to the starting lineup. Now off to a strong 15-10 start, the presence of Spencer Torkelson in beast mode has carried them offensively. And as expected, an excellent rotation and good bullpen work have been crucial. Still, the key answer to a lot of Hinch’s roster problems this spring has once again been Zach McKinstry, and he’s having the best stretch of offensive production in his career at just the right time.
McKinstry got his first cup of coffee in 2020 with the Dodgers , the team that drafted him out of Central Michigan back in 2016. However, he only appeared in four games, so really he’s been a major league regular since 2021 when he appeared in 60 games. For those first four seasons, McKinstry has consistently been good for an 80 wRC+ mark with good baserunning and roughly average infield defense all around the diamond. The lack of power or at least strong on-base ability has always kept him to a part-time role.
This season, and of course we’re only talking about 86 plate appearances, McKinstry is playing better than ever defensively, and he’s currently rocking a 157 wRC+. That’s 57 percent better than league average offensive production. Who is this man?
When the Tigers optioned Jace Jung to Toledo at the end of camp, the third base situation seemed pretty sketchy as the Tigers moved on to their third string plan this offseason. That plan has largely turned out to be McKinstry at third base against right-handed pitching, with appearances at second base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions already. He’s also their third catcher on the depth chart.
McKinstry has been a useful player and obviously one that Hinch values for both his two seasons with the club. So far this season, he’s been absolutely instrumental in helping them out to a fast start despite some injuries and slow starts to the Tigers’ lineup. The Tigers just called up Jace Jung to play some third base, but whether he gives way and plays more outfield or not, they can’t take McKinstry out of the lineup.
Now, here comes the part where I harsh the vibes a bit.
McKinstry is currently rocking a .400 batting average on balls in play. As you’d expect, much of his hot start is the result of a lot of routine balls getting through the infield or dropping in, and that doesn’t last. A career. 226 hitter with a career OBP of .294, McKinstry is hitting .311 with a .416 on-base percentage so far this year.
It’s no great insight to recognize that there’s little foundation for a major, sustainable breakout here. The spirit of Tony Gwynn didn’t appear to him in a dream and impart his hitting wisdom. He didn’t muscle up in the offseason and start hitting the ball significantly harder more often. He’s still playing his game of walking a decent amount, hitting a good amount of line drives, and putting his above average speed to work on the bases. He’s absolutely going to cool off. And that’s okay.
Even if he goes right back to being career Zach McKinstry, he’s done everything you could ask for a role player and more to contribute to a winning season, particularly by getting red hot when a lot of the team’s better bats are struggling or rehabbing from injuries. Assuming Riley Greene hits like Riley Greene, and Matt Vierling and eventually Parker Meadows return from injury and to form, the Tigers don’t need McKinstry to be so much more than he actually is to contend.
However, there are some reasons to think that McKinstry has taken some kind of a step up in fundamental hitting skill. His 24.6 percent chase rate (O-swing %) is a 4.3 percent improvement over his career average. Always a fairly selective hitter, he’s been even better in that regard to start the year. He’s walking much more, and he’s picking better pitches to swing at. If he can sustain some of that improvement in swing decisions, then some of the improved production is sustainable as well.
Another area that offers a bit of support to the idea that McKinstry has actually improved is the fact that he holds a 30.4 percent line drive rate this season. His career average line drive rate is 23.3 percent. To improve production, a hitter’s best path is to walk more and/or to hit for more power. Driving the ball to the wall and over it takes opposing fielding out of the equation. McKinstry is walking more, but hitting a lot of line drives is another good way to hit for higher average and sustain a higher batting average on balls in play.
If we drill down a little further, a big anomaly so far is the fact that McKinstry holds a 233 wRC+ in 23 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He’s always had very balanced splits in his career, but to destroy lefties over right-handers as a left-handed hitter is quite unlikely to hold up over the course of the season. Still, while southpaw pitchers account for roughly a quarter of his plate appearances this season, and McKinstry’s numbers against those lefties are wildly overinflated compared to what we should expect the rest of the year, it also doesn’t factor that much into expectations going forward.
When the team is healthier, and if McKinstry cools off, McKinstry is probably going to see an even smaller percentage of plate appearances against left-handers. Either way it’s such a small total amount of plate appearances so far this year that it’s impossible to say if anything in McKinstry’s underlying performance has improved against left-handed pitching or not. So we’ll assume the answer is not, until a lot more evidence comes in to confirm.
Still, even against right-handers in the role he’s mostly likely to fill the rest of the year, McKinstry holds a 130 wRC+, which is 45 points higher than his career average. He’s excelling across the board so far this season. And it’s against right-handers where McKinstry’s swing decision gains are showing up most. His walk rate against southpaws is basically right at his career averages. His walk rate against right-handers is at 17.9 percent, over twice his career average of 8.2 percent.
So, is anything conclusive going on to say McKinstry has sustainably leveled up as a player? Not really, but that’s just how it is early in the season. Anomalies abound, and by year’s end most will be erased as players regress or recover toward their career averages. However, this isn’t just “luck” either. Yes his batting average on balls in play is going to come way down. There will be points where nothing is dropping for him and the fanbase gets frustrated.
However, McKinstry has been much more selective in his swing decisions in the early going, and that’s a good sign. His numbers against breaking stuff and offspeed haven’t improved at all, but his numbers against fastballs are through the roof, and he’s doing a lot better job so far in laying off everything else and getting himself fastballs to drive. Then, when he gets a fastball, he’s hitting them for the highest percentage of line drives in his career. If he keeps that up, his numbers will regress but he’ll still probably perform as a league average hitter, well above his career marks.
So far, McKinstry has seen the highest percentage of first pitch strikes of his career. The Tigers approach first pitch has been more aggressive this season, and so everything has lined up pretty well for him to get more fastballs to hit. That will change if McKinstry’s success continues, but so far he’s doing everything right and taking advantage of teams’ approach against him. The real test will come when they start to pitch him a little more carefully. Then we’ll see if he can still get a lot of fastballs to drive, or if pitchers can start to mix a lot of breaking and offspeed stuff in early in counts and get ahead of him, or get more weak contact as he hunts fastballs aggressively.
While we should certainly expect him to cool off a lot, it is notable that his swing decisions and his improved line drive contact provide some basis to hope he can continue to be an improved hitter overall. It’s possible that as he’s built reps against major league pitching, McKinstry has improved his approach to a sustainable degree even at the ripe old age of 29. We just have to be reasonable about this. Pitchers will make adjustments, he’s going to cool way off at some point, and I think a reasonable hope is that he’s roughly a league average hitter the rest of the season. Combined with his hot start, that would make for much improved full season numbers. Anything more would be a most savory gravy on top of the meal he’s serving right now.
Zach McKinstry has been a lifesaver in the early going, and a big reason why the Tigers are riding high on a strong start to the season. We can hope for more of this, but until we see it hold up for months at a time, it’s best to just appreciate the timing of this hot streak. Much proof is still required before we can reasonably start to expect better performance from him over the long haul.