It would take a pretty penny to extend the Tigers’ superstar outfielder now.
The hopes and dreams for the future of the Detroit Tigers are built around a core group of young players who have worked their way up through the ranks and have landed, or will soon land in Detroit. At the center of that core group are two players who stand out more than any others; Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, and slugging outfielder Riley Greene. The duo represented Detroit at the All Star game in 2024, and led the team on their journey into October.
Skubal has gotten nationwide recognition, winning the “triple crown of pitching” after leading the league in wins, strikeouts, and ERA, making the Cy Young award a foregone conclusion. Any talk about the club giving him a contract extension to keep him in a Tiger uniform, quickly evaporated when they saw the potential price tag. Agent Scott Boras is taking his player to market after the 2026 season, and barring an injury, he’s going to make a lorry load of money, perhaps too rich for the Tigers. Certainly too rich right now, with the player at peak value.
While Skubal received a nice raise, over $10 million for his second season eligible for arbitration, Riley Greene, the club’s other All-Star, will earn close to the minimum major league salary of $760,000 this year. In 2024, he received a salary that was $20,000 above the minimum and also a pre-arbitration bonus which brought his pay up to over $1.2 million. Such is the salary structure in major league baseball. It’s all about service time, arbitration and then free agency after a player reaches six years of service time.
Greene has accrued two years and 110 days of major league service time. That is written “2.110” on the salary charts. That makes him ineligible for arbitration this winter, as he is just shy of the “super two” cutoff of two years and 132 days (2.132) of time in the major leagues. If you’re keeping score at home, that will keep Riley in a Tiger uniform through the 2028 season. He will be eligible for arbitration each of the next three seasons after this year, unless he is signed to a multi-year contract.
There are a couple of reasons why a club would sign a player to a multi-year contract prior to them being eligible for free agency. One is cost certainty. As players reach levels of stardom in the major leagues, their salary continues to climb, up toward $20 million a year or more, even as they remain under “club control”. Clubs can spread out that money a bit more evenly and not have to be concerned about the very highest salaried seasons. And, since they are giving the player guaranteed money- the total amount will be less than what it would cost if they went year to year and the player remained healthy until their free agency.
For the player, signing a multi year contract means they will be set for life, even if a catastrophic injury or a rapid decline in their early 30’s prematurely brings an end to their stardom. They also won’t have to worry about contract negotiations for a long time to come.
The Tigers signed Colt Keith to a six year contract worth a total of $28,642,500. That’s an average annual value (AAV) of almost $4.774 million per season. He will get $2.833 million for 2024, $3.833M for 2025, and upward from there. The contract buys out his six years of team control, and gives the team three more expensive club options to exercise or not for what would have been Keith’s first three years of free agency. To make a deal like that, the club must be pretty confident that they’ve got a player who is going to be a major contributor for the next several years.
Keith had no major league service time when he signed his extension. However, he was all but guaranteed the starting job at second base for the ‘24 season. The deal could rightly be considered a win-win for both the player and the club. It’s also quite a rarity for the Detroit Tigers, but possibly an indication that there could be more of these deals in the future as the Scott Harris era unfolds.
Riley Greene’s position is much different to that of Colt Keith, as Riley has two plus seasons and an All-Star appearance under his belt, just four years remaining in the major leagues before he hits free agency, and his name can be seen on any list of rising stars that you can find.
When trying to guesstimate the value of a contract in major league baseball, the first number to look at is service time. Not home runs or batting average, nor even WAR or some of the advanced metrics. First classify the player by service time, which will inform you of their status within the salary structure. Here are some examples right on the Tigers’ own roster.
In 2025, Matt Vierling will earn just over $3 million in his first season of arbitration eligibility, with 3.026 years of service time. Jake Rogers is a year ahead, but in his second season of arbitration will have a salary of $2.6 million. Jake missed significant time due to injury along the way. Casey Mize is also a year ahead and missed a full season. Despite being the first overall draft pick in his class, his second year arbitration salary is just 2.34M. There was a mutual option for $3M for the 2025 season that the club declined after Mize missed significant time again, depressing his value in arbitration.
After service time, the number of games played, or innings pitched in the case of a pitcher, are taken as an indication of a player’s value to their team by arbitrators. Any special awards, such as a Rookie of the Year or an All-Star selection also give an indication of where a player might stand among their service class.
The Tigers don’t really have any other comps for players who were extended either into their arbitration years or beyond their eligibility for free agency. The last was Spencer Turnbull, who signed a two year contract for a total of $3.65 M for the 2022- 23 seasons, his first two seasons of arbitration eligibility. Tigers and extensions just don’t go together very often. At least not since Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander got their megadeals.
So, for comparable extensions, we will look elsewhere around the majors. Note how many of these were signed in the spring time.
Ronald Acuña Jr. – Atlanta Braves
- Extension Signed: April 2019
- Years in MLB: 1 season
- Contract: 8 years, $100 million (with two team options) 12.5M AAV
- Details: Acuña signed his extension after winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2018, securing a long-term deal just before his second full season in the majors.
Ozzie Albies – Atlanta Braves
- Extension Signed: April 2019
- Years in MLB: 2 seasons
- Contract: 7 years, $35 million (with two team options) $5M AAV
- Details: Albies signed his extension just a few days after Acuña, sigining with the Braves on a team-friendly deal.
José Altuve – Houston Astros
- Extension Signed: July 2013 (initial 4-year deal, extended in 2018)
- Years in MLB: 2 ½ seasons
- Contract: 4 years, $12.5 million (followed by a 5-year, $151 million extension in 2018)
- Details: Altuve’s first contract extension came as he entered his arbitration years. Later, he signed a larger extension.
The list of multi year contracts for players not eligible for free agency is not particularly long, but the names are impressive. They are players that teams want to build around. Players like Riley Greene.
When contract extensions go into players’ free agency periods, the money and number of years are even higher because they have to be compensated for the money they could potentially earn on the open market.
Julio Rodríguez – Seattle Mariners
- Extension Signed: August 2022
- Years in MLB: 1 season
- Contract: 12 years, up to $470 million- $39.1M AAV(with incentives and options)
- Details: After a phenomenal rookie season, Rodríguez signed an extension, locking him in with Seattle for over a decade. That’s five seasons of arby years and seven years into free agency.
Fernando Tatís Jr. – San Diego Padres
- Extension Signed: February 2021
- Years in MLB: 2 seasons
- Contract: 14 years, $340 million; 24.28M AAV
- Details: Tatís signed this massive extension after just two seasons, marking one of the largest contracts ever at the time for such an early career stage.
- Freddie Freeman – Atlanta Braves
- Extension Signed: February 2014
- Years in MLB: 2 ½ seasons
- Contract: 8 years, $135 million (includes 4 years of free agency) $16.8M AAV
- Details: Freeman, having established himself as one of the top young first basemen, signed this long-term deal, which carried him through his prime years with the Braves.
Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels
- Extension Signed: March 2014
- Years in MLB: 2 ½ seasons
- Contract: 6 years, $144.5 million- $24.0M AAV
- Details: Trout was already an MVP by his third season. He signed this extension before the 2014 season. This deal provided him security and established him as one of the game’s highest-paid players at the time.
Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox
- Extension Signed: February 2020 (with the Los Angeles Dodgers )
- Years in MLB: 2 ½ seasons (prior to Red Sox arbitration years)
- Contract: 12 years, $365 million (signed with the Dodgers)
- Details: Betts established himself as an elite player by his third season in the majors with the Red Sox. Though his contract extension came later with the Dodgers, Boston considered long-term deals with Betts after his breakout 2½ seasons.
Christian Yelich – Milwaukee Brewers
- Extension Signed: March 2020
- Years in MLB: 2 ½ seasons (with the Brewers)
- Contract: 7 years, $188.5 million (3 years of free agency)
- Details: Yelich’s performance as an MVP in 2018 and runner-up in 2019 prompted the Brewers to sign him to a long-term deal after just over two full seasons with the team.
Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants
- Extension Signed: March 2013
- Years in MLB: 2 ½ seasons
- Contract: 8 years, $159 million (4 years of free agency)
- Details: After winning Rookie of the Year, a World Series , and an MVP by his third season, Posey secured this major extension with the Giants, ensuring his long-term presence with the team.
Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox
- Extension Signed: April 2019
- Years in MLB: 2 ½ seasons
- Contract: 6 years, $120 million (includes 2 years of free agency)
- Details: After his breakout years with the Red Sox, Bogaerts signed this extension, ensuring he would remain a key part of the Red Sox team’s core. After three seasons at $20M per year in Boston, he signed another megadeal with the San Diego Padres for 11 years, $280M.
Perhaps the latter few players here are the type of contract extensions that Tigers’ fans might want to see for Riley Greene. We just want the best players to remain Tigers for a longer period into their free agency seasons, without their contracts becoming an albatross weighing down the payroll. Something in the $170-190 million range, say over eight or nine years, might be doable.
From Greene’s perspective, an extension might be a viable option because he fell short of Super Two status for this year. Essentially he still has four years of team control ahead of him before he can cash in. He’ll still only be 28 years old then, and no doubt believes in his abilities, but four years is a long time, particularly with another year ahead of him before he starts to get paid more in his arbitration years. He may only make a combined $30 million over the next four years, where the Tigers could offer him $80 million over that span in exchange for signing up for an extra four years at a similar rate.
As with Skubal, it’s possible that the Tigers have already waited too long. Typically players are more amenable to an extension before their big breakout year. Possibly Skubal would never have been interested. Perhaps the same is true for Greene. However, with four years still ahead of him until free agency, the Tigers certainly should be making an effort to lock up their best hitter beyond his current team control.