We don’t like the Padres system but they are interested in Flaherty, so let’s see what they have to offer.
The San Diego Padres have ‘spoken with the Detroit Tigers ’ about trading for starter Jack Flaherty, according to a report by Dennis Lin and Chad Jennings of the Athletic. The market for the Tigers’ chief trade chip appears to be heating up a bit, as this report comes on the heels of a rumor that the Astros are also kicking the tires on a trade for Flaherty. Reportedly the right-handed has been scratched from his scheduled Monday night start against Cleveland.
From the outside looking in, the Padres have had a somewhat confusing calendar year. Their decision to shop Juan Soto and eventually trade him to the Yankees seemed to signal an organizational change of direction, but they pushed their chips back in with an early-season trade for Luis Arraez and are now positioning themselves as buyers at the trade deadline.
As of Monday, the Friars are six and a half games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and seem unlikely to catch up unless disaster strikes their rival superteam. Instead, they’re in a good position to fight for a wild card spot with a 57-51 record. They’ve already struck a deal with the Rays for reliever Jason Adam, and are rumored to be looking for at least one more starter before trading is shut down for the year.
It’s tough to suss out what the return for Flaherty may look like if he winds up in San Diego. The Padres have two international superstars in the farm system, but there’s no chance they part with Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries may be tough to pry away as well after they handed him a huge bonus. After that, many of their top prospects are starting pitchers, which would make little sense to send out in exchange for a buttress to their rotation.
Nevertheless, here’s a look at some prospects Scott Harris may target in a trade with San Diego.
Graham Pauley makes a living with a compact swing that can pack a punch at times. He has played several positions in his career and is a primary third baseman, where he’s a very good defender. He makes good swing decisions, but profiles more as a utility man unless he can tap into more raw power. Pauley was horrific in his MLB debut and has struggled in Triple-A after being demoted, but he has a track record of excellent performance.
Isaiah Lowe has an explosive fastball that has delightful riding action at mid-to-high 90s velocity. He backs it up with a slider that flashes above average and a changeup that shows enough promise to project him as a back-end starter. He’s already physically maxed, and Pipeline praises the deception in his pitching motion. Shoulder issues have stalled his growth in pro ball and he’s already too old for his Single-A competition.
Kannon Kemp is cut from the same cloth as the flock of young, developmental arms the Tigers have been investing in for the last two years. He’s inexperienced on the mound and saw his velocity jump pre-draft last year, and again into the mid-90s in the Padres’ instructional league. It has rising action and works as a weapon high and on the hands. He also shows promising command and has surprisingly good control of his large, 6-foot-6-inch body. He is eons from the majors but has a great foundation to work from.
Marcos Castañon has been unspectacular at the plate in Double-A this year, but he feels like the kind of player the Tigers would ask for as a throw-in to complete a deal. He’s greater than the sum of his parts, hitting lefties well and timing up pitchers well despite a dramatic swing. There’s not a ton of feel for defense here, nor is he very athletic, but the Tigers like to gamble on guys like Castañon who control the strike zone and can play all over the infield.
Victor Lizarraga has not exactly lived up to expectations for the progression of his pitching talent since signing out of Mexico for $1 million in 2022. He’s a low-effort righty with a fastball that lives in the low 90s and has roughly average stuff across the board. His upper-70s curveball is his best pitch, and he also has a straight change that plays well enough to keep him in the rotation. He may pop in the Tigers’ organization — the Padres aren’t the best at developing pitchers and Lizarraga reportedly has a reputation as an intelligent pitcher with a feel for the game.
In all, there’s not a ton here to get enthusiastic about. The farm system over in San Diego has gotten substantially thinner in the last few years and it’s difficult to imagine how they can assemble a package of prospects that will feel like a fair deal for both sides. With Flaherty scratched from his start Monday night, it’s likely that a trade is imminent, though Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic is reporting a deal is not in place yet. If the Tigers wind up striking a deal with the Padres, our expectations won’t be high.