The Tigers opponent remains up in the air between Houston and Baltimore entering the last day of the regular season.
On Friday night, the Detroit Tigers defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-1, clinching a playoff berth for the first time since 2014. In the process, they handed the south siders their record setting 121st loss of the season. Despite a strong month of August, it took a 17-6 run in September, with two games remaining, to overtake the Minnesota Twins . The speed with which this came together, and the absolutely relentless team effort required to make it happen, has no doubt taken many fans breath away.
We weren’t expecting this, and so your first questions, assuming you weren’t looking ahead, may be who are the Tigers going to play, and what does the postseason schedule look like for them now?
Both the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals lost on Saturday, which is traditional after a postseason clinching party the night before. As a result, the Tigers will enter Sunday’s game 162 against the Chicago White Sox with a chance to decide their destiny in the Wild Card Series.
Right now, the Tigers are game ahead of the Royals and hold the fifth seed in the American League. The fifth seed will play the Baltimore Orioles in Baltimore, while the sixth seed currently held by the Royals is slated to head to Houston. So, the Tigers opponent is in their hands. If they win on Sunday, they play the Orioles for three days straight in Baltimore. If they lose and the Royals beat the Braves, the Tigers and Royals will tie for the regular season record, but with the Royals holding the tiebreaker, they’ll become the fifth seed and the Tigers will head back to A.J. Hinch’s old stomping grounds to play the Astros.
The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians have already locked up the top two spots, earning a bye into the divisional series which will start next weekend. The Tigers currently hold a one game lead over the Kansas City Royals with two games left, so things could change, but right now, here’s how things look.
The Houston Astros , as the third best division winner, are the number 3 seed. The Baltimore Orioles have the best record among wild card teams, and can’t be overtaken at this point, so they will be the 4th seed. Currently, the Tigers are the 5th seed, and the Royals in the 6th spot.
The 3 and 6 seeds will face off in the Wild Card Series, as will the 4 and 5 seeds. So right now, the Tigers are slated to take on the Baltimore Orioles. In the Wild Card Series, the team with the best record hosts all three games. This is to ensure a quick conclusion to the series so that the top two seeds aren’t waiting for a week to play again. It also gives a strong edge to the team with the better record. If the Royals manage to overtake the Tigers, after they also clinched a spot on Friday night, then the Tigers will take on the Houston Astros.
In either scenario, both the Orioles and the Astros will host the AL Wild Card Series. It’s just a matter of the Tigers and Royals positioning.
Tuesday, October 1
DET/KC @ BAL/HOU on ABC/ESPN
Wednesday, October 2
DET/KC @ BAL/HOU on ABC/ESPN
Thursday, October 3
DET/KC @ BAL/HOU on ABC/ESPN
However the matchups shake out, it’s going to be an intense three game road series with everything on the line for all four teams. The American League Division Series will offer them one off day on Friday, beginning those best-of-five matchups on Saturday, October 5 on TBS. The American League Championship series is tentatively set to begin that best-of-seven matchups on Sunday, October 13, with the World Series beginning on October 25 unless both league championship series end early.
Pick your poison
Between the Orioles and the Astros, the Tigers will face some different challenges, but the two teams have been pretty comparable this season.
While the Orioles will finish with the better regular season record over the Astros, the difference will be one to three regular season victories depending on how Sunday’s regular season finales shake out. Both teams are strong at home, with a 45-35 record for Houston and a 44-37 home record for Baltimore. Against .500 or better teams, Houston holds a 37-41 record, while Baltimore holds a 38-39 record against those teams. The Tigers have a similar winning percentage against .500 or better clubs, but they’ve also played a tougher schedule by that metric, holding a 43-47 record on the year.
Of the two, the Orioles got out to a scorching hot 58-38 start this year and have struggled to the finish line in the second half going 32-34. The Astros had the opposite sort of season with a 50-46 start, and going 38-28 in the second half.
The Astros are obviously the much more experienced group, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker leading the way. That veteran experience is contrasted by the young Orioles club led by Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, though they do have more experienced players in Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins as well.
Both clubs will feature good starting pitchers while the Tigers will likely continue to improvise beyond Tarik Skubal in Game 1. For the Tigers, the matchup with Houston is probably tougher as they can roll out two good left-handed starters in Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi, with Hunter Brown as their best right-hander and second best starter in the second half. The Orioles don’t have those left-handed starters to match up against the Tigers. Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin are likely to start Game 1 and 2 for the Orioles, with Albert Suarez presumably pitching Game 3 if needed.
Overall the starting matchups are better for the young, heavily left-handed Tigers against the Orioles. They do have a deep pen of tough lefties compared to the Astros. The Astros can run Josh Hader out there late in games as a pretty bad matchup for the Tigers, but he’s having a pretty pedestrian year by his standards.
Astros’ slugger Yordan Alvarez suffered a minor knee injury last week, but reports indicate that the swelling has gone down and while he may not quite be at 100 percent, the fearsome left-handed hitter will presumably be ready to DH for Houston. The Orioles have gotten a little healthier in the past week with Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias just recently returned, but RHP Grayson Rodriguez doesn’t look like he’ll be available.
Overall, the momentum is on the Tigers side against either club, but particularly the Orioles. The Tigers took 2 of 3 from the Orioles at home in September, then went into Baltimore and took 2 of 3 there. While there’s some familiarity with the Tigers bullpen heavy approach on the Orioles side, they couldn’t handle it well in those two series.
I think I prefer the Tigers to beat the White Sox on Sunday, take the fifth seed in the American League, and go into Baltimore looking for revenge for the 2014 club. The Tigers won’t likely have the home field advantage in any series, but considering they’ll play all three games of the Wild Card Series on the road, their recent familiarity with Baltimore seems like the best fit, as does their confidence level having taken it to them in those two series.
The way the Tigers have been playing, it may not matter, so bring them on either way. But who do you prefer?