Options to improve the offense and rotation are running slim. Pivoting to the bullpen would help.
The Detroit Tigers haven’t done a whole to improve the team this offseason. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about and waiting on an Alex Bregman signing announcement with one of his suitors. Maybe they’ll surprise us, but in the meantime, other opportunities to improve could slip away if they aren’t careful.
Staring us in the face now is the possibility that the pitching staff might be the only area where they’re really comfortable offering a contract that can realistically land a player. They managed to pitch their way to the postseason last year, and at least they have enough young hitters to hope someone new breaks through in 2025. If they pivot to addressing the pitching staff instead, the question is whether they should sign a starting pitcher or move on to addressing the bullpen instead.
Right now, the rotation is Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, Alex Cobb, and Jackson Jobe. That certainly has potential if Cobb can miraculously stay healthy enough to give them 100+ innings. Jobe would probably have to pitch his way out of a job this spring, but it’s fair to suggest that he’s not carved in stone to start the season in the starting rotation.
For the fifth and final spot, and in support of any injuries, they have Casey Mize, who is perfectly capable of giving backend starter performance. Keider Montero and Brant Hurter were the best among their rookie starters in 2024, and Montero in particular is young and talented enough to continue improving. Beyond that we have Ty Madden, and whatever the Tigers intend to do with Matt Manning. Finally Kenta Maeda might be able to at least give them bulk innings if injuries require more pitching chaos to get through a rough stretch. Finally, they have a fairly good starting prospect in right-hander Troy Melton reaching Triple-A, while Sawyer Gipson-Long’s anticipated return in June or July might also provide some support once he has time to get back into a groove again.
Obviously the whole thing runs through the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. The pitching staff is largely going to go as Skubal goes, and there really isn’t much remedy should he suffer an injury along the way. Jobe is likely going to be very good eventually, but the Tigers can’t expect him to carry the rotation just yet. Olson has the potential to pitch like a quality second starter to Skubal, but there are some concerns after a shoulder injury and diminished effectiveness when he returned late in the season. It’s easy to have faith in A.J. Hinch and Chris Fetter, and we expect the Tigers will manage to get solid rotation work out of their group even if more creative chaos is required along the way. Still, however you slice it the Tigers aren’t going to be the same pitching staff if Skubal isn’t leading the way.
To my mind, that rules out signing a random depth starter. Signing a free agent starting pitcher necessarily makes the whole group more inflexible. Even a one-year prove it deal to someone like Max Scherzer could become a minor albatross, although at least the former ace promises some upside beyond backend starter production if he’s actually healthy. Adding a veteran on a one year deal blocks Mize and all their young starters, other than Jobe, out of the rotation. If such a player struggles, the Tigers are not going to be quick to move on. Perhaps if they can find someone flexible enough, and willing enough to pitch out of the bullpen too in a mixed role, something can be arranged, but it’s hard to expect to get anyone that way who would actually be an upgrade.
Nick Pivetta working with Fetter, Robin Lund, and Juan Nieves intrigues me, but he has a qualifying offer attached and the Tigers won’t give up a comp pick to sign him. Maybe they’d have modest interest in Kyle Gibson or a lefty like Andrew Heaney. Really though, Jack Flaherty is the only starter left out there that really fits the bill as someone worth reserving a spot for in the rotation. Pairing Flaherty with Skubal sounds fairly good, but a deal doesn’t really suit either party at the moment.
Flaherty clearly hasn’t gotten the offers he hoped for this offseason. The injections in his back in June for what was described as “back tightness” at the time, reportedly scared off the New York Yankees from trading for him in July. With the Dodgers , Flaherty seemed to run out of gas, struggling to maintain his velocity late in the season and into the postseason. All those issues should make the Tigers extremely wary about offering a multi-year deal to the 29-year-old right-hander. Perhaps a two-year deal with an opt-out for year two, giving Flaherty another chance to prove that he can hold up and do his best work for a whole regular season schedule, is a possibility, but it certainly feels like a longshot.
Right now, it feels like the best place to address the pitching staff is in the bullpen. The Tigers could consider putting any of Mize, Montero, Hurter, Madden, Manning into the pen, but they’re going to want to keep a few guys stretched out in Toledo. Adding another good reliever to a group led by Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, Will Vest, and Beau Brieske, would help them to keep their extra starters flexible. And if they can find the right player, it could help with their chief weakness as a group, namely the lack of strikeouts.
The Tigers don’t have a single reliever who could be expected to strike out more than the league average of 23.4 percent strikeouts for relievers. Only Brieske cleared that bar last year at 24.6 percent. The Tigers make it work mainly by trying to limit walks and home runs, relying on a relatively big home park and a strong outfield defense to minimize damage and force teams to play small ball to scratch out late innings runs. They can do that again in 2025, but if they’re actually going to improve the roster at all, finding a high strikeout reliever is probably their best inexpensive option.
The Tigers have reportedly checked in with a few veteran closers. Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and David Robertson were most prominent names mentioned by Evan Petzold of the Free Press last week as potential targets. Other top targets like Kirby Yates, A.J. Minter, and Jose Leclerc have already signed.
The 37-year-old Jansen walked more than his usual rate of batters, but he still punched out 28.4 percent of hitters faced with the Boston Red Sox last year. He also reversed his recent trends by really cutting down on the home runs allowed. His 3.29 ERA was nothing to write home about for a closer caliber reliever, but a 3.00 FIP was was well in line with most of his work in his 30’s. He seems relatively undiminished, has a ton of postseason experience, and would give the Tigers and A.J. Hinch another high leverage reliever to deploy in the late innings.
Meanwhile the 36-year-old Kimbrel continues to rack up strikeouts, putting up a 31.5 percent rate last year. However, the walks and home runs piled up and he struggled with his control repeatedly throughout the season with the Baltimore Orioles . He also lost nearly two miles per hour off his riding fourseamer. Not good.
Of the two, Jansen is clearly the more attractive option, but he’s also likely to be a lot more expensive. The Tigers are really not in the business of paying top dollar. Trying to get Kimbrel sorted out at a lower rate might be more appealing. He still clearly has the stuff to strike a lot of guys out, but that lose of velocity at his age is particularly concerning.
A better option could be veteran closer/set-up man, David Robertson. The 39-year-old continued to defy the aging curve with the Texas Rangers last year. He put up a 3.00 ERA/2.65 FIP with a strikeout rate of 33.4 percent, and did an excellent job limiting home runs. A one-year deal to the right-handers could do a lot to strengthen the Tigers’ pen, and Robertson doesn’t have the name value of a Jansen or Kimbrel which could create problems based on the way Hinch and Fetter mix and match relievers regardless of their “hierarchy” in the bullpen.
RHP Carlos Estévez is another possibility mentioned by Petzold. The veteran right-hander was with the Angels last season. He doesn’t have the strikeout rates some of the other do, but he really had a strong year in terms of limiting walks. He’s not as appealing as Robertson or Jansen, but the Tigers may have their own ideas about how to tune him up a bit further.
Finally there’s our old buddy, Andrew Chafin. The veteran lefty was once again good for the Tigers in 2024, and then struggled after getting traded at the deadline. He probably won’t be expensive at all because he finished poorly and struggled with walks with the Rangers. Maybe the Tigers pick up again for the first half and end up tying him to their line again in July to fish for another prospect.
Right now it feels like Holton and Sean Guenther may be enough in the lefty department of the bullpen, with Hurter possibly playing a role as needed. However, Guenther is still pretty untested, and the Tigers would perhaps like to keep Hurter stretched out depending on how things go this spring. Chafin continues to handle right-handers pretty well, and can pitch in a lot of situations not typically favored for a situational left-hander.
Right now, I think I prefer Robertson, Chafin, and Estévez, in that order. One key component is that they’re interested in a one-year deal. The other, is that unlike Jansen and Kimbrel, who are climbing the all-time reliever leaderboards, the others aren’t going to be concerned with their save totals. The Tigers will want the flexibility rather than arguing with a potential future Hall of Famer about save chances. Either way, the Tigers seem highly unlikely to go two years for a veteran reliever. Maybe if they have a strong preference for one of these arms they could add an option year with a buyout to land their guy.
The fit for a starting pitcher just isn’t that great, and it’s hard to believe the Tigers are preparing to blow Alex Bregman away with a major increase in their offer to him. Picking up a good reliever is probably the right path to improving the pitching staff without limiting their flexibility or blocking their younger starting pitchers from having a path to the rotation.
However, with a lot of the top relievers already off the board, competition may soon heat up for the leftovers.