Let’s take a look how the Tigers big six are faring as we reach the All-Star break.
Through two drafts and two trade deadlines, Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations, Scott Harris and his staff have re-made the farm system even as most of Al Avila’s top picks were long graduated. Even with the graduation of Jackson Jobe and Dillon Dingler, the system is still one of the best in the game. While the Tigers are fresh off a playoff run and hold the best record in baseball, most of their minor affiliates are dominating and their top prospects are shining. The present and the long-term future of the ballclub are in very good shape.
The question facing them now is how to balance those two things at the trade deadline at the end of July.
For a good team to win a World Series , there are two obvious paths. One, you go all in and trade everything and the kitchen sink for the best players you can get your hands on, and deal with the fact that you may go from contender to disaster within a few seasons, without winning a World Series. You can never get close enough to guaranteeing it. The other is to hold and try to develop every prospect you have, and hope to be a consistently above .500 team for many years, in the hope that one year you catch fire at the right time and win it all.
Obviously you’d like to find the balance between those two options. The Detroit Tigers have enough depth to hold onto their top prospects and still land the pitching talent they need. Scott Harris isn’t the type to mortgage the farm right now and he shouldn’t, but there is still good reason to believe he will go get significant help for an October push.
Let’s take a look at how the club’s top prospects have fared so far this season. With the exception of some injuries, things have gone very well. Right now I think there is a clear “big six” that should be on national top 100 lists. Unless the Tigers find the perfect deal for one of Thayron Liranzo or Josue Briceno, I expect that Scott Harris will be extremely reluctant to trade any of the following players.
Kevin McGonigle
Selected in the 2023 draft with the Tigers’ competitive balance round A pick at 37th overall, the 20-year-old shortstop out of Monsignor Bonner HS in Pennsylvania is threatening the top of mid-season national prospect lists among the best prospects in baseball.
McGonigle dominated Single-A ball in his full season debut, and this season he’s mauled Midwest League pitching while displaying a deep and advanced set of tools as a hitter. McGonigle’s rookie year as a pro ended with a hamate injury and concerns about how it might impact his power this year. Then he sprained an ankle in his first game of the season. Since his return on May 10th, all fears have been extinguished.
His High-A numbers were outstanding. Let’s start with a 207 wRC+ and a walk rate of 13.5 percent against a strikeout rate of 11.1 percent. He hit seven home runs and a total of 26 extra base hits in just 36 games over 171 plate appearances. While McGonigle has established himself as a top shelf hitter, he’s also put draft day questions about his future power production to rest.
McGonigle combines a good eye with a fairly aggressive approach despite the excellent walk rate. He takes his rips at good pitches to hit with a quick bat, combining good barrel control with the flexibility to create good angles on all sorts of pitches. He’s crushing left-handers as well as right-handed pitching, and he’s also mastering the crucial elements of hitting for good power. He’s can go the other way when required, but he’s already pulling the ball hard on a line or in the air constantly. He doesn’t have the juice of a Riley Greene, but his max exit velocities aren’t far from matching up with Spencer Torkelson, for example. More importantly, he’s already dialed in to driving as many balls as possible in the air to the pull field.
Defensively, McGonigle has the tools to be an average shortstop, and I think he’ll get there. He doesn’t have the biggest arm or the quickest first step, but he generally plays the position well. We are also talking about a young player with less than 150 pro games out of high school who is widely praised for his hard work and intelligence on the field. He may end up playing multiple positions for AJ Hinch, but he’s going to be fine either way.
In short, you can be very excited about this one, and I would consider Kevin McGonigle to be pretty close to untradeable even if Scott Harris was the type to deal his top prospects aggressively. McGonigle’s main nickname is “The Professor” and as you’d expect from that, his reputation is of a smart, extremely dedicated young player who can lead by example. He’s likely to keep getting better and better. It feels like the Tigers are slow playing him, but remember that he’s only had about seven weeks of High-A ball. He was certainly ready to advance to Double-A this week, and I would bet he’ll get a chance to test himself at the major league level sometime in late 2026.
Max Clark
Max Clark is another one you don’t want to trade. One of many good things about the Tigers’ top pick in the 2023 draft is that there’s star potential here, and yet his floor as a player is already pretty strong. His likeliest future lies somewhere in between, but Clark is already developing into a good pure hitter with speed and good defense. The big debate revolves around how much power production he’s going to generate.
Clark is a very patient hitter, walking 19.7 percent of the time, while striking out just 17.0 percent of the time for the High-A Whitecaps. He shows really good zone judgement and as he’s settled in at the High-A level his pitch recognition has improved as well. He lived on base in setting the table for the West Michigan Whitecaps with a .430 on-base percentage.
Last year, Clark started really slow in the power department, but as he settled into his first season of pro ball in Lakeland, he started driving the ball in the air and pulling more balls out. Since moving up to High-A, the pattern has repeated. After plenty of singles and walks this spring, the doubles and homers have started to come on recently. He cranked his first Double-A homer on Wednesday and it left the bat at 108 mph, the best exit velocity we’ve seen recorded by him in pro ball.
Clark does spray the ball on the ground 48.8 percent of the time. Considering his zone discipline, you’d like to see him drive the ball a good deal more. However, he also has excellent line drive rates, and while he spent most of the spring spraying the ball the opposite way and pulling grounders through the infield for singles, things are starting to follow the pattern he established last year where he looks like a singles hitter until he settles in at the level, and then the pull power starts to show up more and more.
The raw power looks like it should be average. Clark is still only 20 years old, and while he’s built up pretty well already and not a big framed guy to begin with, he’s also a little younger than teammates McGonigle and Josue Briceño, who turn 21 this summer. It’s reasonable to think there’s a little more strength coming. It’s a matter of getting to his power and he’s showing signs of putting that together now too.
With good defense in both center and left field, value added on the bases, and good pure hitting ability, He’s not on the trajectory that McGonigle is yet, but I think there’s a high likelihood that Max Clark develops into a good major league player even if he’s a 15-20 HR guy. If there’s more juice forthcoming, he’s got a path to stardom.
Bryce Rainer
This is the one that hurts a bit. Last year’s first rounder Bryce Rainer was incredibly impressive in his pro debut. Unfortunately a fluke right shoulder dislocation diving back to first on a pickoff play on June 3 required surgery and ended his season.
Through 35 games, the 19-year-old was destroying fastballs at the Single-A level, having some trouble with breaking stuff, and showing off very good strike zone discipline for his age. Defensively, he shows good reactions, speed, and hands, with a really big arm from the shortstop position.
Rainer posted a .398 wOBA with a 93 mph average exit velocity against fastballs. At just 19 years old and slender as a reed, he’s hit eight balls over 108 mph, with four over 110 mph and topping out at 111.6 mph. For reference, Spencer Torkelson’s hardest hit ball in the majors left the bat at 112.7 mph. Rainer already has plus raw power, and he’s barely scratched the surface yet.
You can make a case that Rainer is the Tigers’ top prospect based on that 35 game sample alone. The potential here is staggering. Unfortunately, now we’ll have to see if the arm strength is still there once he’s recovered from the shoulder surgery. Even if it takes him some time to build it back to full strength, the tools already present are enormous, and with his bat speed and zone discipline, odds are high that he’ll learn to pull more balls and handle breaking and offspeed stuff well in time.
Josue Briceno
The 20-year-old catcher out of Venezuela is still getting overlooked a bit nationally. Concerns about his defensive home are overblown, and even if he ends up playing first base he’s not far from McGonigle as a pure hitter and packs even more raw power.
Briceño clubbed 15 home runs and 29 extra base hits total in just 55 games for West Michigan, putting up a 180 wRC+. In the process he led the league in home run total and was behind only McGonigle in OPS. He walked 16.8 percent of the time with a strikeout rate of just 16.4 percent. He’s a patient, selective hitter who does major damage to all fields and can shorten up with two strikes and still put the ball sharply in play.
After his knee injury last year cost him the second half of the season, Briceño went on to destroy the Arizona Fall League en route to MVP honors and a triple crown despite just turning 20 years old. The injury might have been a blessing in disguise as he spent his time well, getting both leaner and stronger at the same time. The Tigers helped him make some adjustments to his swing to get his legs more involved and the result has been better hitting rhythm, bat control, and even more power as he pulls more and more balls in the air.
He has room on his six-foot-four frame to continue adding some good muscle, and there’s a chance that Briceño ultimately hits like prime Yordan Alvarez by the time he’s fully developed. Probably, he’ll strike out a little more than the Astros slugger, but not by a lot, and the damage he can do should be plentiful. He’ll also provide more defensive value even if he ends up playing a lot of first base at the major league level.
For now, a key challenge to watch for him will be a much more consistent crop of left-handed pitchers at the Double-A level. He’s fairly adept at covering the outside of the plate and taking balls the opposite way already, and as he gets stronger and adds a little more bat speed he’ll have even a little more time to recognize and lay off some of the sweeping breaking balls from left-handers that was one minor weakness at the High-A level.
Behind the dish, Briceño shows a good but sometimes inaccurate arm. His framing and blocking have already improved significantly since his early days in pro ball, and the Tigers coach catching really well. Considering his limited experience, the trajectory of his development says he’ll turn out to be roughly an average major league catcher and since getting himself in better shape last summer, he’s improved in all aspects of his game behind the plate. Ultimately, he’s just not going to be the kind of defensive standout that AJ Hinch and Scott Harris prefer as their everyday guy behind the dish. Dillon Dingler has that role locked up for the forseeable future.
If the bat continues to develop at this pace, it is possible the Tigers put catching on the back burner to get his bat to the major leagues rather than waiting for his defensive skills to mature until he’s 23 or 24 years old. I’m very interested to see Briceño tackling the Double-A level this summer.
Thayron Liranzo
As expected, the Tigers’ switch-hitting catching prospect has taken a few lumps at the Double-A level, but he only just turned 22 years old a few days ago. The demands on a young catcher are intense as they move up the ladder, and it wouldn’t have phased me even if he struggled quite a bit all season long. Instead, after a bit of a sluggish start Liranzo has again come on strong offensively, while continuing to develop behind the plate.
Liranzo has nine home runs in 247 plate appearances for the Erie SeaWolves and holds a 128 wRC+ at the moment. He continues to walk a ton, posting an excellent 16.2 percent walk rate. He has a good eye for the zone but his contact ability is below average and he’s still learning to recognize and handle better secondary stuff. The pure raw power has allowed him to continue to produce despite the uptick in swing and miss this year. He has struck out quite a bit, with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate, but he’s young for the level and the swing and miss has started to wane as he settles in. He is still walking over 16 percent of the time as well, lending credence to the idea that he’ll be selective enough to do damage even if he’s always a three true outcomes style hitter.
As a switch-hitter with catching responsibilities, there’s just far more to digest than for the average player, and he’s doing just fine on all fronts. Ultimately he’s probably a low average hitter who walks a good amount, strikes out more than you’d like, but does enough damage hitting left-handed to play first base or work as the DH assuming his catching ability doesn’t make enough of a leap to start at the major league level.
Defensively, Liranzo is in a similar boat as Briceño. Both are progressing defensively, but neither shows the kind of raw athleticism that translates into top shelf catching ability at the major league level. Liranzo’s framing and blocking are coming along pretty well, and he has the arm to play back there, but he doesn’t really have a standout trait to bet on. Again, he’s probably tracking like a backup, but Liranzo might surprise us if he can get a little stronger and leaner to turbocharge his defensive development.
Troy Melton
I’ve been beating the drum on Melton for a while now, and the plan is finally coming together. This 24-year-old right-hander’s calling card is an excellent riding fastball that tops out in triple digit territory. He had some home run trouble at the Double-A level in 2024, but still posted excellent strikeout and walk rates.
This season he conquered the home run issue and posted outstanding FIP numbers for the Erie SeaWolves. That got him promoted to Triple-A Toledo at the beginning of June, and after a couple of rough outings getting used to the major league baseball and the ABS system, he’s posted four straight dominant outings with 32 strikeouts and four walks allowed over 21 2⁄3 innings with just two earned runs surrendered.
Melton was a late bloomer in college at San Diego State and went through a complete overhaul of his mechanics en route to a strong junior season. The Tigers took him in the fourth round of the 2022 draft, and continued the work to turn him from a funky sidearmer into a more traditional three-quarters arm slot style power pitcher. He was a high ceiled project, and that project is now coming to fruition.
Melton’s average fastball velocity through seven Triple-A starts is 96.7 mph and he’s topped out at 99.9 mph with above average extension to the plate. His extension and a relatively low release point, along with a bit above average spin rates produce a very good riding fourseamer that even major league hitters will have trouble with. He throws a high volume of strikes and has always kept his walk rates low, but it’s still been more control than true command until recently. He’s also been very durable so far.
In terms of secondary pitches, it feels like Melton and the Tigers are still experimenting with his optimal stuff. He throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and a changeup that looks like a split-change grip. They all look good but commanding the whole package has been beyond him so far. He may be better served trimming down his repertoire to be more consistent with his best pitches. We’ve seen the Tigers routinely add a sinker to their starter’s toolkit, and that may be another possibility to add another wrinkle to his game at the major league level.
Right now, Melton could use a little work in the Fetter finishing school to really dial in the optimal pitch mix. Expect to see him up with the major league club fairly soon for a look. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster this fall anyway, and Melton could turn out to be the weapon the Tigers need in the bullpen. I expect he’ll get some chances to show that later this summer.
Melton is comparable to all but the top tier of starting pitching prospects in the game, and has just gone a bit overlooked in that regard on national lists. We’ll see if Toledo Mud Hens pitching coach Doug Bochtler, and director of pitching Gabe Ribas, can tune him up a little more over the next few weeks. I think he’s a lock to pitch in the Tigers bullpen later this summer. For now, keeping him stretched out as potential rotation depth does make sense as injury insurance until they make that call. He may also get a few starts, but in October he’s probably best used in the bullpen and he’ll need time to acclimate to that role.
Could the Tigers trade Melton? Sure, but that would undercut the purpose of bulking up the bullpen, and the Tigers don’t exactly have a slew of high quality upper level pitching prospects right now. Get a really good reliever or two in the bullpen in trade, add Melton as needed down the stretch, and season to taste. I think the odds he gets traded are extremely low.
Final analysis
As we all know, you have to give to get, and Harris can’t afford to miss out on adding at least one really good high leverage reliever to the Tigers’ bullpen. That’s bare minimum. Can that be accomplished without giving up one of these six prospects? Probably, but it’s certainly a little trickier.
Of the group, Thayron Liranzo is to me the most expendable of the bunch. Neither he nor Briceño really profiles as a future starting catcher, and Briceño is a significantly better bet to hit in my opinion. Liranzo has very good batspeed and raw power, and he doesn’t chase any more than Briceño. Still, while he’s a switch-hitter he just doesn’t have the pure hitting ability that Briceño does and should be easier to get out with good breaking stuff at the major league level when all is said and done.
We’d love to keep both, but if headlining a package with Liranzo can get two impact players or the best rental pitcher available, that’s just fine.
Beyond Liranzo, Jace Jung has made some swing adjustments and remains a potentially good platoon infielder who is still only 24. Hao-Yu Lee is 22 and could develop into an impact hitter who is solid enough at second base and maybe third base with more work, for the bat to carry the profile. Max Anderson is pretty limited to the right side of the infield defensively, but he has good bat to ball skills and plus raw power that he’s shown signs of getting to more consistently this year. Right-hander Jaden Hamm is currently dealing with a minor injury, his velo has been down a little this year and still needs a better third pitch, but he remains an intriguing pitching prospect and still only 22 years old.
Those four are all in the 45 future value tiers, with a plus beside Lee in my book. Can one of them plus a younger player like catcher Enrique Jimenez or SS/2B Franyerber Montilla get you a good arm? Yes, in some combination based on your trading partner’s preference, but that may not be enough to land you one of the top two or three relievers on the market without sweetening the pot.
The challenge for the Tigers is that they’ve got an outstanding group of six or seven prospects, and then the system is thin in the middle until you get to more of the young/project types. The Tigers have a lot of them with future major league tools, but they are either flawed enough to have a major hole in their game to solve, or are still too young to project with any real accuracy.
The Tigers have a whole bushel-full of interesting young arms they could deal. The problem, is that from young right-handers like Owen Hall, Zach Swanson, and Kelvis Salcedo, to recent prep lefties like Ethan Schiefelbein, Paul Wilson, or Blake Dickerson, everyone but Salcedo, who is just 19 and still in the Complex League, are injured.
It’s difficult to maximize value trading 19 and 20-year-old arms who are just starting pro ball and are already down with a mix of injuries. Probably one or two of those guys will turn out to be good pitching prospects as they approach the major leagues, but it’s a bulk business at that level even more than usual, and you don’t know which guys will break out eventually and which will fall by the wayside.
Ultimately, the Tigers have the prospects to make all sorts of trades. Yes McGonigle, Clark, and Rainer are basically untouchable, but beyond that Scott Harris has everything he needs to turn the Tigers few weaknesses into strengths at the trade deadline.