With Carson Kelly bound for free agency, and Dillon Dingler having a pretty good season in Toledo, it is decision time for the Detroit Tigers.
The future of the Detroit Tigers ’ catcher position will likely be decided in the next 10 days. The upcoming trade deadline, Carson Kelly’s impending free agency, and the success of top catching prospect Dillon Dingler this season, will all factor into the decisions that Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg have to make soon.
Right now, it appears as though Carson Kelly is going to be traded by July 31.
Harris and A.J. Hinch made a really smart move last August when they claimed the then 29-year-old catcher off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks . We talk about how much better the Tigers are at developing pitchers now, but they’re equally as good at coaching catchers. They turned Jake Rogers into an outstanding defensive catcher, and in less than a year have upgraded Kelly’s game as well.
The two Tigers catchers are in plus territory in just about every measurable defensive category, from framing and blocking, to pop times and throwing ability. While you might slightly prefer one or the other, and I lean Rogers behind the plate, they’re both above average catchers, and one of the main sources of strength from the position player group.
The difference, is that Rogers has two years left beyond 2024 before he reaches free agency, while Kelly is gone at season’s end. It’s possible the Tigers could try to extend Kelly, or even trade him and then re-sign him to a multi-year deal in the offseason. Right now though, it makes sense to trade him.
First, Kelly is having a rare strong season at the plate. If we go back three years, Rogers has been a much better performer as a hitter and a catcher, but after two poor seasons at the plate, Kelly has caught fire with the Tigers, putting up the best offensive season of his career so far at age 30. At the same time, Rogers is having a down year at the plate. Compounding the assessment is the fact that neither has that many cumulative plate appearances over their past three seasons in the major leagues. It’s hard to say who is going to be better going forward, but clearly Kelly is the more appealing trade piece right now.
There isn’t a more valuable catcher than Carson Kelly likely to be traded in the next 10 days. Ben Rortvedt of the Rays or Logan O’Hoppe of the Angels are arguably a little better, but both have many years of team control remaining, so despite their respective clubs’ situations right now, they aren’t that likely to be traded. If they were, it would be a different kind of longer term trade. The Tigers should be able to pull a prospect just outside the top 100 for Kelly, or they could package him with Jack Flaherty to a team that needs upgrades in the rotation and at the catcher position and try to leverage a better prospect from prospective buyers.
The other reason to trade him, is that Dillon Dingler has started to put it together offensively and holds a 116 wRC+ with 12 home runs in 66 games for the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens. After striking out a lot throughout his years in the minor leagues, Dingler has finally slashed the strikeouts way down, from 31.2 percent last season at Triple-A, to a respectable 20.9 percent rate. He’s also tapping into his solid raw power much more effectively, launching several impressive home runs in recent weeks.
Already well known as a fine defensive catcher with good hands, more athleticism than most catchers, good pop times and a strong arm, Dingler’s time is here. The Tigers need to see what they’ve got in the now 25-year-old former second rounder in the 2020 draft, and it’s time for Dingler to get that last coat of polish from the coaching staff. He has a lot to prove, and it’s easy to argue the Tigers would be better off sticking with Rogers/Kelly the next few years. But that would require extending Kelly in the next 10 days. Trading him and getting a good look at Dingler seems like the move, with the possibility that you simply re-sign Kelly in the offseason if Dingler proves unconvincing.
The question is what the Tigers think about the Rogers/Kelly gang going forward. Presumably, their offensive numbers will come back close to each other in time, and they’re both so good defensively that you kind of hate to let either go. The only flaw is that neither is left-handed. Rogers is probably the better game caller, and he is also Tarik Skubal’s regular catcher, which isn’t an unimportant factor in the decision. Kelly is certainly the better hitter this year, but it’s really just a question of whether you want Jake’s power or Kelly’s better contact ability.
The Tigers could just surprise us and trade Dingler in a deal, I suppose. Dingler is ready to step in as at least a quality defensive backup, and if the Tigers don’t really believe he’s going to hit enough to play regularly, that might be the move to make, particularly if they can sign Kelly to a two or three year extension at a reasonable price. If the Tigers really believe Kelly has figured it out with the bat, it’s worth doing, but there’s no guarantee that Kelly wants to stay badly enough to sign a team friendly deal, either.
The Tigers could also trade Jake Rogers instead. Plenty of teams would value his defense, power at the plate, and success against left-handers as a good fit for them. The problem is that Rogers, after posting a 115 wRC+ in 2021 and a 97 mark last season, is scuffling some this year with a 71 wRC+. Despite the outstanding defense, Rogers isn’t at peak value here from a trading perspective and the Tigers have two more years until he reaches free agency.
Dingler needs to see the bright lights and see if he can take the next step. Kelly turned his career around in Detroit, and probably wants to test free agency rather than taking a cheap two-year extension, which is probably as far as this front office would be willing to go.
So, let’s assume they’ll at least inquire about extension talks with Kelly, consider the trade interest versus Rogers, and make the call. Within 10 days, we’ll know what the Tigers’ catching position is going to look like for at least the next two years. Odds are on Jake Rogers staying, with Dingler as his understudy for a while, and Kelly traded. Still, maybe the Tigers will surprise us with something else up their sleeve.