The Tigers and Guardians play for all the marbles in Saturday’s Game 5.
With the Detroit Tigers season on the line, they have the best player on the field toeing the bump in Saturday afternoon’s Game 5, winner-take-all matchup against the Cleveland Guardians . They may have home field advantage, but Tarik Skubal is an advantage that transcends all others right now.
The presumptive AL Cy Young winner is now beyond 200 innings on the year for the first time in his major league career. That’s remarkable enough in an era where precious few starting pitchers reach that mark. More remarkable perhaps is the fact that despite the workload, Skubal is pitching his best baseball of the year over the last month. He last allowed a run against the Kansas City Royals back on September 18th and has three straight shutout performances in a row since, including big time performances against the Houston Astros and the Guardians in the postseason.
Now he’ll look to put the Tigers on his back and carry them to an ALCS matchup against the New York Yankees .
It’s true the Guardians will be seeing him for the second time in five days, which may help them offensively. However, everyone has seen everyone else already in this series, so that’s no particular advantage. We’ll go with the best pitcher in baseball, thanks.
Guardians starter Matt Boyd is the one who may be hurt most by recent familiarity by the Tigers hitters. Presumably he won’t be in the game more than once through the Tigers order unless he’s really dealing, and so it will largely be a bullpen game for the Guardians. The Tigers have seen all their best relievers multiple times now too. The familiarity advantage favors the Tigers here.
Of course, if you’d told us they’d score four runs off of Emmanuel Clase in the series, we would’ve told you this thing was already over. By which I mean to say that playoff baseball is a different animal, and predictions are folly at this point.
The real dent in the Tigers armor is the probable loss of their most dangerous hitter, Kerry Carpenter. A right hamstring strain may allow him to pinch-hit once, particularly as Carpenter’s swing is built around a strong backside post on his uninjured left leg, but there’s really no way he’s going to be able to run the bases effectively. Still, it’s an all hands on deck situation, and while AJ Hinch and the Tigers will play their cards close, it’s entirely possible that Carpenter just won’t be able to go. We’ll hope for a hobbled Kirk Gibson-style moment, but the Tigers certainly won’t be banking on that.
A key decision for Hinch is whether to load up the lineup with his right-handed hitters to try and jump Boyd early. That may be just what Guardians manager Stephen Vogt is looking for. Just a move would allow Vogt to lean on lefties Tim Herrin and Joey Cantillo in key spots later in the game, knowing Hinch doesn’t have the pinch-hit options to match up with them. Wenceel Pérez, Spencer Torkelson, and Jake Rogers will give the Tigers three right-handed bats to start with, and it may be the wise move to keep Andy Ibáñez and Justyn-Henry Malloy back for key situations in the middle and late innings.
If they’re going to hit Boyd up, which is certainly a reasonable possibility, they’re going to have be more patient this time around. The veteran lefty was good through 4 2⁄3 innings back on Monday in Game 2, and never made a big mistake. The Tigers need to learn from that effort and recognize that Boyd isn’t going to be looking to pitch deep in the game. He’ll be nibbling all around the edges, and the young Tigers lineup needs to keep their impatience in check rather that chasing Boyd’s junk all around the edges of the strike zone.
If they can wait him out and get fastballs or a few hangers in the zone to drive, they can make short work of Boyd, but they’ll need to avoid offering at close balls and hope the home plate umpire is on his game. Being aggressive first pitch is fine, as Boyd does need to get ahead in counts early, but they’ll have to be extremely disciplined the rest of the at-bat.
The Tigers bullpen isn’t any fresher than the Guardians, and we finally saw Beau Brieske’s armor crack a bit in Game 4 as David Fry got him on a poorly located heater for a two-run home run. However, with a day of rest, Brieske, Will Vest, Tyler Holton, and basically anyone else needed should be available and rested enough to go. And the Tigers shouldn’t need too much help if Skubal is on his game.
One more thing to watch for is which team takes more chances. The Guardians have stolen three bases to the Tigers zero in the series. David Fry’s ninth inning safety squeeze bunt was pulled off to perfection and a bold move that won the game and kept the Guardians season alive. The Tigers have lacked baserunners in general, but they haven’t been able to force the issue at all either.
A month ago we didn’t expect the Tigers to be in this position and certainly this is a roster that needs some help to take the next step and win the AL Central in 2025. However, in the postseason, run prevention is everything and the Tigers are as good in that department as anyone in baseball. They also have a lot of young players with upside who are getting plenty of seasoning over the last few weeks in playing high pressure games.
With Skubal on the mound they have to be the favorite even in Progressive Field, but the margin isn’t at all comfortable now. They’ll need a big game from someone in this lineup to avoid another nail-biter, but in the postseason, nail-biters are the rule.
Hold on tight, Tigers fans. Tension will be high on Saturday, but fans can bank on the fact that dominant starting pitching tends to win out. Tarik Skubal’s shoulders are strong and he’s pitching the best he has all season, rising to every challenge to date. He’ll do his part, and hopefully they’ve got enough magic left to extend this incredible run.