With the big three advancing, here are your likeliest options for promotions at each level to follow.
The big news this morning is the Detroit Tigers ’ Sunday night promotion of top prospects SS Kevin McGonigle, CF Max Clark, and C/1B Josue Briceño to Double-A Erie. These moves were arguably overdue, but in the long run it doesn’t matter too much how fast they’re promoted. Once you reach the upper minors, it’s just a matter of readiness.
As we’ve seen from the Tigers over the past few seasons, they don’t like to rush players and will move level to level to a point. But they ultimately don’t tend to promote them from Double-A Erie to Triple-A Toledo until they’re just about ready to help the major league squad in some capacity. So, when these guys are ready to help, they aren’t necessarily going to have to spend a long time in Toledo before a call-up if they’re needed.
The corresponding moves throughout the system behind the top prospects will be more interesting. It’s hard to guess when pitchers will begin moving. Even predicting when the Tigers will advance some positional prospects is kind of a crapshoot, but certainly the Tigers will need to backfill rosters as the big three advance.
So, let’s take a look at the affiliates from Double-A on down to the rookie ball level Florida Complex League and at least get an idea of who is most ready for advancement.
Erie SeaWolves
The SeaWolves have had some tough luck in terms of prospects. Pitchers Jake Miller and Jaden Hamm are both injured, while outfielder Roberto Campos has been alright in his first look at the Double-A level, but he really isn’t ready for a promotion either.
The obvious candidate is second baseman Max Anderson. The Tigers 2023 second rounder out of Nebraska is having a breakout season at the plate, and recently has been taking reps at third base to help make him more useful in the long haul. Will he be promoted to Toledo soon?
The answer may have to do with the Tigers moves at the deadline. Should Jace Jung or Hao-Yu Lee be involved in a deal, Anderson would step right into their shoes. However, it’s also true that Anderson has some work left to do at the Double-A level. He is still a free swinger, and while he doesn’t strike out much he doesn’t walk a whole lot either. The big development has been learning to hit more balls in the air, and that’s led to 11 home runs to go with his .342 batting average, but he does need to become more selective and maximize his contact to damage ratio.
I’m not convinced that the Tigers are going to promote him just yet.
Tigers top pitching prospect Troy Melton is already up in Toledo, and has settled in nicely after several outings to acclimate to the new baseball and the ABS challenge system. Melton has allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts for the Mud Hens, striking out 24 hitters in 16 innings of work. He’s on tap to join the Tigers in the second half of the season and seems likely to be converted to relief if his jump to the majors goes well. The Tigers may keep him starting in July, but unless he’s really needed in the rotation, adding Melton’s triple digit fastball and good strike throwing to the Tigers pen would be a big boost in the second half and in the postseason without pushing his innings total for the year too far.
Another relief possibility at Erie is right-hander Richard Gausch, recently signed out of the Mexican League. Gausch has a good 96-98 mph fastball and a pretty killer slider to boot, and appears to be taking well to the Tigers’ help in repeating his delivery more consistently. Now 27, Guasch is a veteran minor leaguer with power stuff who may be coming into his own. SeaWolves fans might not have him around much longer.
SeaWolves’ reliever RJ Petit is also having a great season, and his power sinker, slider combination has been very tough on Eastern League hitters this year. Both seem good bets to join the Mud Hens by August at the latest.
Tyler Mattison and Tanner Kohlhepp are also on hand in Erie having finished their rehab assignments after long absences for injuries. Both have the stuff to be setup men at the major league level if they can find enough command to take the next step.
Another interesting decision at Erie will involve the catching rotation. Briceño has been kept on a light workload behind the plate, and that may continue. In which case, there will still be plenty of catching duty for both Thayron Liranzo and Eduardo Valencia.
I would assume though, that the Tigers still want Briceño to catch a fair amount. That probably means promotion for the 25-year-old Valencia, who is a solid defender for his level but not really a future major league option except in a pinch. However, he is having a great season at the plate. The right-handed hitter has 11 homers in 52 games with a 21.1 strikeout rate and a 150 wRC+ rate. I wouldn’t expect him to supplant Tomas Nido as the Tigers third catcher on the depth chart, because Nido is still superior by a fair margin defensively, but Valencia is ready for Triple-A.
In truth, the most likely promotional candidates from Erie to Toledo, beyond Valencia and a few relievers, are the SeaWolves veteran position players. Carlos Mendoza has already seen Triple-A a bit, and he and Trei Cruz couldn’t be any readier. You can add first baseman Jake Holton to that list. All are older and not prospects in the strictest sense, but they’re all potentially useful Triple-A players who could potentially fill in at the major league level in a pinch. You can add outfielder Ben Malgeri and right fielder Justice Bigbie to that list of non-prospects who might get moved up as well.
It all depends on whether the Tigers are willing to move on from other older minor leaguers like Riley Unroe, Brewer Hicklen, Andrew Navigato, and Bligh Madris.
High-A West Michigan Whitecaps
The Whitecaps have already surrendered their best to the SeaWolves, but there are several interesting players who may get consideration for a promotion before the end of the year.
Two of these names are a pair of former prospects who have started to finally put it together this year. SS/2B Peyton Graham is now 24, and while he’s still striking out too much at 24.9 percent, he continues to walk a solid amount too. A little more muscle and a more aggressive approach this year has led to him finding his power again. Graham has seven homers, 13 doubles, and a triple, along with 10 stolen bases. After battling a lot of nagging injuries his first two full seasons in pro ball, he’s finally healthy and showing some of what his power, speed, and defensive tools can do. He’s more of a future utility prospect now, but at least he’s making progress. A move to Double-A may not be too far away.
The other is third baseman Izaac Pacheco. He’s almost two years younger than Graham, but after three rough seasons in pro ball, Pacheco has finally started walking at the High-A level and getting to more of his power. The left-handed slugger still makes too much weak contact and strikes out a ton, but the hard contact is at least a sign that he isn’t completely cooked as a prospect just yet. Pacheco has major raw power and if the swing changes he’s made take root, there may be hope yet for him. A 30.5 percent strikeout rate says not to hold your breath.
Seth Stephenson combines blazing speed with good defense in center field, and he’s been the table setter for the Whitecaps. The undersized Stephenson is 24 now, but he continues to put the ball in play a ton, striking out just 15.1 percent of the time, and has found some power after building himself up the past two offseasons. He has six home runs and 25 stolen bases. One of the fastest players in the league, if not the fastest, Stephenson has opened up a path to a bench role in the major leagues by improving his bat speed while continuing to put his feet to work to support an otherwise soft hitting profile. His defense, throwing arm, and raw speed give him a lot to work with if he can continue to hit enough.
The Whitecaps bullpen has been outstanding this season, and while that’s mainly due to a lot of veteran minor league arms, they do have at least one relief prospect that could advance as well. Lefty Micah Ashman has been outstanding, featuring a low-to-mid 90’s fastball with a lot of deception that hitters just cannot pick up at that level. He’s only allowed four runs all season, and hasn’t allowed a single home run.
Left-handed starter Andrew Sears is a 22-year-old drafted by the Tigers in 2023 in the 10th round. Sears is a fast-working starter with an aggressive presence on the mound. He has a good enough fastball-slider combination to be an effective reliever eventually. If the Tigers decide to accelerate that transition, Sears could end up in the SeaWolves bullpen. Otherwise he’s a fair bit to join their rotation later this summer.
Single-A Lakeland Flying Tigers
The next phase of promotions will also be fascinating in terms of who graduates from Single-A Lakeland to fill McGonigle, Clark, and Briceño’s big shoes.
Shortstop Franyerber Montilla is the highest ranked prospect who makes for a likely promotion. First baseman Garrett Pennington is just hanging on the fringes of prospect-dom, but is the most obvious choice to be moved up. Outfielder Jackson Strong and infielder Woody Hadeen are two more who should be moved up, if not now, then a little later in the season.
Montilla is a smooth infielder who handles shortstop and second base well. He has the speed to steal bases, and the plate discipline and contact ability to develop into a pretty good hitter. Right now, the bat speed and his pitch recognition on breaking stuff still needs work. He’s a little underpowered, but has the frame to fill out as he gets a little older. Montilla only just turned 20 years old, so there’s no rush, but the Tigers may decide to test him at the High-A level soon.
Pennington is an Indy ball signing with serious raw power. The 24-year-old is a slugger without too much defensive utility beyond first base, but he can handle a corner outfield spot decently. He’s only striking out 17.5 percent of the time, and has 10 homers in 64 games. As an older player in the minors, he’s very much ready for a move up to West Michigan, and you can expect that very soon.
Strong is a fairly talented outfield prospect, and the Tigers seventh rounder in the 2024 draft. The left-handed hitter has shown pretty good pop and zone discipline. But he’s still learning to deal with better breaking stuff. The walks have been good, but he’s striking out 27.9 percent of the time and could use more seasoning in his first year before moving up to face more advanced pitchers late in the season.
Hadeen, on the other hand, is light on the power but a more experienced college player who is striking out 17.9 percent of the time, drawing his walks, and showing off his speed with 23 stolen bases. He’s not really a prospect at this point. The batspeed is probably never going to be enough, but he can play just about anywhere in the field. The 22-year-old is ready for a look at High-A, and like Pennington is highly likely to get that promotion soon.
On the pitching side, recent right-handed relief signing Dariel Fregio is already up in West Michigan now. Lefty starter Gabriel Reyes is ready to follow him and coming on strong after a slow start. Reyes has a good fastball-slider combo from a tough angle. He looked really good last year and entered our prospect rankings at #22. If he’s sorted out his command issues, as it appears he has, the strikeouts and clean innings will keep piling up and he’ll be in a Whitecaps uniform before too long.
Right-hander Lucas Elissalt is another one who could take a spot in the Whitecaps’ beleaguered rotation. Elissalt throws strikes and has a good high-spin fourseamer and slider combination that plays up due to the low release point. He’s going to jump onto some deeper Tigers’ prospect lists this year.
Right-hander starters Josh Randall and RJ Sales, along with lefty reliever Ethan Sloan and right-handed flame-thrower Moises Rodriguez will also get consideration for promotion in the coming weeks or months.
FCL-Tigers
At the Complex Level, three position players and three pitchers really stand out to me and could get the call across the complex to the Single-A level.
Catcher Enrique Jimenez debuted at 21 on our list this spring. The switch-hitter is a good pure hitting prospect who has the skills to develop into a quality major league catcher. He just needs to develop more power in time to fill out the profile. He’s not that likely to ever be a starting catcher, but he could be a depth catching option who pinch-hits. There’s no rush with the 19-year-old, but he’s hitting Complex League pitching pretty well with five homers and a 121 wRC+ in 36 games. You can expect him to at least get a look at Single-A and the chance to catch a more advanced crop of pitchers by season’s end.
20-year-old third baseman Javier Osorio was a big ticket IFA signing back in 2022. He’s been FCL Tigers most consistent offensive performer, posting a 150 wRC+ with five homers and 20 stolen bases in 34 games. He’s walking eight percent of the time, with a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, so we can’t get too excited yet. But he is ready to tackle Single-A ball.
Likewise shortstop Jude Warwick is probably Flying Tigers bound soon as well. The left-handed hitting middle infielder has speed and contact ability to go with good defense. He’s struck out just 16.3 percent of the time, walking 10.6 percent of the time. The 19-year-old may never have the batspeed to turn into a really good middle infield prospect, but he’s got some tools and an advanced all around game for his age. He seems like a natural fit to take Hadeen’s spot with the Flying Tigers.
Right-handed starters Kelvis Salcedo, Eddy Felix, and Jatnk Diaz have all pitched well for FCL Tigers and have the stuff and the strike throwing ability to start tackling the Single-A level. Salcedo’s big heater and nasty slider will get him on prospect lists this year. Diaz remains interesting, with the frame and stuff to develop into a big-time power pitching. After shoulder trouble last year, he’s turned things around in his second pro season. He’s just a little raw yet. Felix is a bit older, closing in on 22 years old, and was acquired as an older IFA out of Mexico in 2022. He’s striking out 33.1 percent of hitters faced with a miniscule walk rate, and holds a 2.51 ERA/3.66 FIP due to a few home run issues.
Any or all of the three could be up with the Flying Tigers in short order.