Sunday’s matchup with the Phillies gave more proof than the Tigers top positional prospect is going to move very quickly.
While just about everyone agrees that Detroit Tigers ’ shortstop prospect Kevin McGonigle is one of the best pure hitters among all major league prospects, too many prospect sites have completely missed the development of his power potential since draft day. On Sunday, against the Philadelphia Phillies ’ long-time ace, Aaron Nola, McGonigle gave even more evidence that he’s a lot more than a high contact, high on-base percentage hitter.
McGonigle got the start at shortstop in the Tigers last game before they head out to San Francisco to play the Giants in two final exhibition games before the season begins in Los Angeles on Thursday. He was facing the best pitcher he’s ever seen in live game action in Nola. What happened? McGonigle crushed a solo home run that left the bat at 111.3 mph.
There’s a reason we ranked McGonigle above Max Clark in our preseason prospect list. While Clark is a pretty talented young hitter in his own right, and arguably has the higher ceiling because of his speed and developing defensive ability in center field, right now he takes a backseat to McGonigle, who is looking like the best and most precocious hitter the Tigers have drafted in a long, long time.
Take a look at this shot.
Two things are crucial to remember here. One, is that after torching the Florida State League last spring, McGonigle suffered a hamate fracture after moving to High-A West Michigan. That injury ended his season prematurely, and left some concern about his power as those type of injuries often sap power from a hitters’ hands well into their next season.
No problem there. 111.3 mph EV is plus raw power. The hand and wrist appear 100 percent good to go.
Secondly, it’s worth noting that many sites, FanGraphs most notably, have failed to alter their grades on McGonigle since draft day. FanGraphs still has a 45 future power grade on McGonigle, and that is completely and objectively wrong. 45 FV grades for power are a deviation below average. 111.3, along with two other shots McGonigle hit last season at 110+ mph, puts him at a 55 present grade. Whether he’s got any more in the tank is debatable, as the 20-year-old isn’t a big guy and is already filled out with good muscle. He may not have more juice to come in his early 20’s, but he’s already way beyond those out of date grades from draft day.
McGonigle may be the best overall hitting prospect in baseball right now. At very least he’s in the top five. Others have more power, but no one is a better hitter than McGonigle is at this point, and he looks 100 percent in his return from the injury. So far in spring camp, he’s hit .333/.455/.444, not counting today’s game. That’s good for a 146 wRC+, and while we’re only talking about 11 plate appearances and then today’s home run, remember that he’s coming back from an injury, 20 years old, and has barely seen High-A pitching let alone the major leaguers and Triple-A guys he’s mauled this spring.
Similar attitudes pervade the discussion around McGonigle’s defense at shortstop. On draft day, there was a pretty strong consensus that he didn’t quite have the range or hands to play shortstop at the major league level. That opinion is now out of date as well. He’s never going to be a plus defender at the position, but his range, hands, arm, and actions all say he can play shortstop to a major league average level. As he gets into his mid-20’s and perhaps loses a step, sure, a move to second base or even third base, seems likely. Ideally, Bryce Rainer arrives in a few years and takes over at shortstop, moving McGonigle to second.
However, for now McGonigle is developing well at the position and just needs another season of reps under the tutelage of the Tigers development staff and Hall of Famer Alan Trammell to get him to the show without having to move off shortstop.
Kevin McGonigle has a decent case as the top hitting prospect in baseball. As a pure average and OBP guy, few would argue that he’s right at the top. But nationally, some folks need to wake up to the fact that his draft day power grades are well out of date and stop parroting misinformation.
McGonigle is the most advanced hitter in the Tigers system, and there’s a pretty good chance he hits his way to Detroit by the end of the year. It’s ok to be excited. The wrist injury hasn’t slowed him down one bit. We’ll see if the Tigers send him back to High-A to get a little tune-up or not, but he’s going to be in Erie soon and he’s plenty ready for the Double-A level already.