The lineup could use multiple impact hitters for 2025
In the final analysis, the 2024 season will go down as a major success for the Detroit Tigers . Not only did they make the playoffs after an improbable late season run that saw them post a 31-13 record over their final 44 games, they went on to win the wild card round against eh Houston Astros and ultimately came within a single victory of playing in the American League Championship Series. They certainly exceeded expectations and thrilled baseball fans in Detroit.
The Tigers salvaged the season by squeaking into the final playoff spot, even losing the last two games to the Chicago White Sox to drop into the sixth and final berth with 86 wins, but riding a hot streak that was the best in the majors from August 11 onward. They did this while managing to boost an already good farm system with numerous trades at the July deadline.
On the downside, they saw two division rivals, the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals , who finished behind them in 2024, blow past them to the top of the division and into the playoffs. After winning the season series against all their division rivals in ‘23, they dropped the season series against the Royals, Guardians and Twins in 2024, leaving them with the short end of the stick when it came to playoff tie breakers.
How the Tigers ranked
So we look at the metrics to see what areas the team excelled and in what areas the team needs improvement. We’ll start by looking at the productivity of the Tigers’ lineup as ranked among the 30 clubs in major league baseball.
What we see here is a lineup that produces well below average, consistently in the bottom third of the major leagues across the board. Even their second half numbers, while improved by the subtraction of Javy Báez and the strong finish by Parker Meadows in center field, still have them pretty decidedly in the bottom third.
The 29th ranked on base percentage sticks out like a sore thumb. The team’s fWAR is a bit higher than the peripherals due to better defense and base running than their hitting.
Improvement is needed in getting on base, hitting for average, hitting for power, and home runs. The team needs to add multiple impact bats in order to climb in the offensive rankings.
Breakdown by position
Now, let’s see how the Tigers did at each individual position by comparison with other major league clubs.
What’s wrong with this picture?
Well, the Tigers had the worst offensive production and the worst overall production from the shortstop position of any team in the major leagues, for one thing. To state the obvious, keeping Javy Báez as far away from the lineup as possible would be a good start. First base was well below average, and the designated hitter could do with some improvement.
Remember that fWAR includes base running and defensive components, while wRC+ is strictly hitting, with 100 being major league average, regardless of position. Also note that the Tigers’ catching ranked 7th in WAR, largely due to Jake Rogers’ defense and Carson Kelly’s quality work before he was traded away.
Captain obvious says that Parker Meadows can hold down the center field position, and Colt Keith was productive at second base. Riley Greene is a deserving All Star, and Trey Sweeney was a big upgrade over Baez, even if he’s not the eventual solution at shortstop. Kerry Carpenter mashes right handed pitchers and Andy Ibánez does the same to lefties.
After that, there are holes at shortstop, first base, third base, and catcher that present opportunities to add a couple of impact bats.
If you’re thinking that the lineup improved in the second half when the team got hot, well not that much. In the second half of the season, the Tigers fared a bit better, with a 95 wRC+ and 7.9 fWAR which ranked 16h in MLB. They still had an OBP of just .300. They ranked 20th in run scoring and 23rd in the ISO rankings for power.
Third base was also a weak spot, and that was shared among a number of players. Matt Vierling posted positive wRC+ numbers of 109 vs RHP and 105 vs LHP. That’s not a huge problem, but it’s not exactly what you want from a number 3 hitter nor from a typically offensive minded position like third base.
Base Running
The Tigers ranked better than most teams in some metrics, and not so well in others when it comes to running the bases.
The team ranked 26th in steals, and 22nd in stolen base percentage. They were second in MLB behind only the Dodgers taking the extra base 49% of opportunities. That means going from first to third, or scoring from second on a single, or scoring from first on a double. The raw numbers, and the number of runs would increase if they got on base more often.
Help is needed to return to the playoffs in 2025
The Tigers finished with 204 fewer runs scored than the MLB leading Arizona Diamondbacks . They don’t necessarily need to lead the majors in runs scored, especially if their pitching remains this solid, but to crack the top third of offenses and give their run prevention engine some breathing room, they’ll need to add about 65 runs somewhere in the lineup. That may take more than just one addition, though improvement from Keith in his sophomore year and getting productive, healthy full seasons from Carpenter and Meadows would certainly help significantly as well.
Keeping with a top 10 theme, the Tigers would need to add 30 home runs, 60 steals, 20 points batting average and 17 points on base percentage. A little quick math tells us that every player in the lineup- not just one player- would have to raise their average by around 20 points. So there is a significant gap to close. However, batting average isn’t that well correlated to run scoring. If they can improve their power and OBP numbers that would do the trick.
If it’s any consolation, Detroit was only 22 runs behind the division winning Cleveland Guardians. Some of the gap can be closed by young players improving or better health, and run prevention in the form of pitching and defense can narrow the gap as well. In fact, that’s how the Tigers did manage to secure a playoff spot as we will see when we rank their pitching performance. Still, it’s hard to imagine the pitching and defense performing much better than they did in 2024. Those two elements of the game were a big success overall and powered the Tigers to the playoffs.
The Tigers had a successful season in 2024 when all is said and done, but that is more in spite of their lineup than because of it. They need serious help this offseason to get back to the postseason and hopefully make a deeper run toward a World Series appearance.