The Tigers won’t be picking high in the draft, so they’ll have to spread out a more limited bonus pool this summer.
The MLB Draft is three and a half months away, which means that soon, the evaluation and prediction cycle will be picking up its usual early summertime buzz. For what feels like the first time in ages, the Tigers aren’t holding a premium pick in the upcoming draft. After their miracle playoff push last season, Detroit will be on the clock with the the 24th and 34th picks. Having two fringe first round picks will position them well to do whatever they’d like with their bonus pool — in other words, continue to make plays for young talent across the entire draft.
Here’s an early look at five young players who may fit their eye as as the draft draws nearer.
LHP Cameron Appenzeller, Glenwood HS (IL)
Detroit is unafraid to push in their chips for raw but exciting talent in the first round, which should be unsurprising considering the influence from former Rays and Padres scouting chiefs in their draft room. Appenzeller would represent their biggest swing yet, as the long, narrow lefty is just about as far away from major league ready as a first round prospect can get. The appeal here his what could happen if Appenzeller falls into the right hands and maxes out on his traits-y build.
Perfect Game reports that Appenzeller can already get as much as 17 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) on his fastball. The Tigers have fallen in love with this kind of fastball movement in recent years as they’ve taught their pitchers to work north-south in the zone and get whiffs as a result. It tends to be a low-powered option at the moment, but there’s reason to believe that his velocity will trend in the right direction as he gets into a pro strength and conditioning program and adds bulk to his lithe 6-foot-6 frame.
Backing up the fastball is a slider and changeup that both flash average or better. Perfect Game commented on how well the slider tunnels off Appenzeller’s harder stuff, which is a great sign for its development as an out pitch. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers see him as a candidate to add a cutter as well. As with most tall high schoolers, there’s a baby giraffe nature to his movements, and as he becomes more coordinated, his command of the entire arsenal will improve.
OF Nick Dumesnil, California Baptist
As one of the better power-speed hitters in the upcoming draft class, one would imagine Nick Dumesnil would be out of reach for the Tigers near the end of the first round. Instead, concerns over the level of competition he’s faced in the Western Athletic Conference will likely depress his value, making him a gem for someone to scoop up later than his tools would indicate.
The Lancers’ outfielder exploded into stardom as a sophomore, hitting .362/.440/.702 with 19 home runs. He has plus wheels, allowing him to lead the Cape Cod League in steals last summer. MLB Pipeline reports that his power particularly shows up against fastballs. There is some roughness around the edges; he has trouble identifying breaking pitches at times and his centerfield defense rests more on his speed than instincts.
Dumesnil surely could have had opportunity to prove himself in a power conference, but chose to stay loyal to his original team instead. “I’ve never had a thought of leaving CBU. I’ve loved CBU ever since I got there. The coaches are awesome, they made me the player I am today, and I just love being there,” he said in an interview with Future Stars Series. Nevertheless, he should crush the low minors, as one would expect his athleticism to carry him until he has to face pitchers who can locate a breaking ball in Double-A.
SS Brady Ebel, Corona HS (CA)
There’s room in any pipeline for a young shortstop with legitimate offensive potential, and that’s exactly what Ebel can offer team at the end of the first round. The square-jawed teenager from California is a showcase darling and, though he is a flawed prospect, could play his way out of reach of the Tigers with another strong summer.
First and foremost, Ebel gains attention because his swing is just too aesthetically pleasing to ignore. Add in good swing decisions, and you’ve got a recipe for tons of quality contact. On FanGraphs’ scouting board , Ebel is one of just six players with above average or better grades assigned to their pitch selection and bat control. He is described there as “among the lower-variance high school prospects.”
The reason he isn’t projected to be scooped up by a team in the middle of the first round is twofold. First, despite being a good size, he doesn’t have tons of power to go along with his other offensive characteristics. He may not become much more than a pesty gap hitter with occasional over the fence juice. Neither does Ebel have the athleticism to wow evaluators, and is an average runner at best. That may limit his future as a shortstop, though he does have the other secondary defensive characteristics to hang on at the premium position.
RHP River Hamilton, Sam Barlow HS (OR)
The Tigers’ current leadership has unabashedly chased prep pitching during the middle rounds of the MLB draft. With no reason to believe that trend will come to and end, it only made sense to include River Hamilton as a potential target in the current draft cycle. Hamilton is a two-way player committed to stay home and play ball at Oregon State , but that should be no obstacle to a team who falls in love with what he can do on the mound.
At his best, Hamilton will show you a mid-90s fastball, and with physical projection remaining on his thin frame, he could eventually sit in that range. FanGraphs describes it as having a shape “in the wheelhouse of many analytically oriented teams.” He can run it on the the hands of righties and, like Appenzeller, Hamilton gets a ton of IVB on his heater.
Hamilton mixes in both a curve and slider that show some promise, but aren’t anything special at the moment. He wasn’t blessed with standout spin rates on his breaking pitches and the curve can be ID’d out of the hand pretty easily at times. One wouldn’t expect him to be a complete pitcher as a teenager, but it does raise questions about how useful his current breaking pitches will become. Detroit has gotten very good at crafting pitch mixes that play off the kind of fastball Hamilton utilizes, and if he winds up in the Tigers’ pipeline, expect his first pro season to be spent in the lab rather than on the mound.
3B Murf Gray, Fresno State
Gray is a player who has sparked some disagreement among draft analysts. Rated on FanGraphs as a fringe first rounder, he also received high praise from Baseball America, but is placed in the third/fourth round range by MLB Pipeline.
No scouting report can seem to resist mentioning that Gray attends the same school as did Aaron Judge, but there aren’t any real similarities between Gray and the Yankees ’ hulking slugger. Gray hangs his hat on his ability to make bushels of quality contact. “He has plus bat speed, showing his above-average power to all fields, though it can be used to a higher potential as he continues to refine his approach. His bat-to-ball skills are elite, as evidenced by a 95% in-zone contact rate, including a 97% rate against fastballs,” said Baseball America.
Gray showed out in the Cape Cod League, hitting .329/.367/.500 with wood bats against top college competition. That’s as good an indication that his skillset will translate to pro ball as anything. The risk here is that he will become too swing-happy against better pitching and wind up sapping his own power output as a result. With great contact ability must come great swing decisions. He’s a third base-only defender, meaning his path to big league contribution will depend on his ability to tap into the raw power his sturdy 6-foot-4 frame affords him.