If you like new statistics, I’ve got one for you.
Throughout the 2024 regular season, the Detroit Tigers seemed to get more than their fair share of clutch relief-pitching performances. But, which ones stood out as being particularly “gutsy?” What had the best balance of facing high-leverage at-bat situations and giving the Tigers a chance to win the game? And, most importantly, which ones made you clench various muscles in your anatomy until you became mildly to wildly uncomfortable?
Methodology
I looked at all the pitchers that made a relief appearance for the Tigers in 2024 — minus Zack McKinstry’s relief outing in a blowout, that probably wasn’t going to make any kind of list like this — and examined two key statistics from Baseball Reference:
- Win Probability Added (WPA): How much did the pitching appearance contribute to winning (or losing) a game? A figure of +1.000 means they were entirely responsible for the win, -1.000 means they were entirely responsible for a loss.
- Average Leverage Index (aLI): The average amount of “pressure” a pitcher experiences in the batters he faces. A figure of 1.00 is an average amount of pressure; that number goes up in, for example, the late innings of a close game.
To illustrate the difference between the two, take two appearances by Tyler Holton, both of which had a WPA of 0.195:
- May 7 in Cleveland, he pitched the third through the fifth inning and did pretty well, scattering two hits, striking out three, and keeping the Tigers in the game as they gradually pull away for an eventual 11-7 win. His aLI in this game is 1.33.
- July 19 in Toronto, he came into a game in which the Tigers lead 5-4 and pitched a scoreless ninth inning to preserve the victory. His aLI in this game is 2.59.
I decided to create a new, composite statistic called Clench Factor (CF) which is the product of the above two statistics: CF = WPA × aLI. For me, this not only encompasses the contribution towards the win, but also acknowledges the pressure under which the pitcher did his work.
Is it simplistic? You bet. Is it quick-and-dirty? Of course. But, to me, if you look at the final results, I feel like CF answers the question I initially posed at the top. So, let’s look at the top five results.
Fifth place: Tyler Holton, August 14 vs. Seattle
Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
- WPA = 0.310
- aLI = 3.85
- CF = 1.194
This was right about when the Cardiac Cats started winning baseball games at a incredible clip. Seattle had scratched-out single runs in the fifth and eighth to go up 2-0, but a Kerry Carpenter two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth tied things up.
Jason Foley had a mighty fine ninth inning to send the game to extras, but then Holton took over with speedy Victor Robles as the Manfred Man on second base to start the tenth. What did Holton do? He struck out Jorge Polanco and Randy Arozarena, and got Cal Raleigh to fly out harmlessly to right. The Tigers won the game 3-2 on an Akil Baddoo double that scored Parker Meadows from second.
Fourth place: Will Vest, July 13 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images
- WPA = 0.310
- aLI = 4.52
- CF = 1.401
Another tenth-inning appearance (this is a trend brought out primarily by aLI), this time in an absolutely bonkers comeback victory for the Tigers.
The Dodgers had a 9-4 lead as the top of the ninth inning ended, and the Tigers had a Winning Expectancy of a cool 1% at that point. LA figured they’d give Ricky Vanasco — a Tiger later in the season, oddly enough — a shot at throwing a low-pressure inning, but that didn’t go so well: a pair of singles and a Matt Vierling double narrowed the score to 9-6, and Evan Phillips was brought in to put out the fire, which he absolutely did not, but he almost did as he got two quick outs. Carson Kelly singled to make it 9-7, then Colt Keith blasted a game-tying home run to send it to extras.
Cavan Biggio was placed on second to start the tenth as Will Vest summited the mound, and Austin Barnes struck out looking. But then Vest intentionally walked Shohei Ohtani because of course you do, and he plunked Teoscar Hernández to make things interesting as eventual World Series MVP Freddie Freeman strode to the plate. Vest then got Freeman to hit a ground ball to shortstop to start a 6-4-3 game-ending double play, eliciting the reaction you see above.
So, alright, this wasn’t a great outing by conventional standards, but hey, it had plenty of “clench” there, right? That’s what CF is all about, you know: sphincters.
Third place: Jason Foley, July 10 vs. Cleveland
Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images
- WPA = 0.321
- aLI = 5.22
- CF = 1.676
The Tigers held a narrow 4-3 lead for most of the game, but Andy Ibáñez led off the bottom of the eighth with a solo home run for a little insurance and a two-run lead. Alex Faedo gave that run right back in the top of the ninth by walking the first two batters and then wild-pitching them both up into scoring position, allowing a run to score on a sacrifice fly by Andrés Giménez to make it 5-4.
Sound the trumpets and bring in Foley! He coaxed Tyler Freeman to hit a grounder to Gio Urshela at first; he threw home to start a run-down which got the second out of the inning, but Freeman advanced to second as the tying run. Brayan Rocchio was intentionally walked to make a forceout at second base possible, but then Foley uncorked a wild pitch to make that strategy moot. Fortunately, he got Austin Hedges to ground out to shortstop to end the game.
Second place: Shelby Miller, March 30 vs. Chicago White Sox
Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
- WPA = 1.893
- aLI = 3.28
- CF = 1.893
Shelby Miller’s season was a bit up-and-down for the Tigers, and they cut him loose at season’s-end. But he sure did start his season with a couple of great performances, one of which earned him a silver medal.
This game in Chicago was a back-and-forth affair with the Tigers taking an early lead, only to have it vanish by the second inning. They tied it in the seventh with a Riley Greene home run and a Carson Kelly RBI single which drove in Mark Canha — neither finished the season in Detroit, how about that — and Miller came into a tie game in the bottom of the ninth. He didn’t miss many bats as the second pitch he threw was taken deep to centre by Andrew Benintendi for a long lineout, and Yoán Moncada flew out to center as well before Luis Robert Jr. grounded out to third.
In the tenth Canha again scored on a Kelly single, putting the Tigers up by a run. But with the bonus runner placed on second you really need to score two here on the road to feel comfortable; Javier Báez and Zack McKinstry (perhaps unsurprisingly) came up empty, though. Robert started the bottom of the inning on second and couldn’t advance on a grounder to third; Miller got Gavin Sheets to fly out to centre but Robert didn’t advance, and was stranded on second as Dominic Fletcher struck out swinging.
And now, your winner…
First place: Beau Brieske, September 21 vs. Baltimore
Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images
(Yes, that’s a “Postseason” patch on his hat, because I couldn’t find a picture of him from this game. If only the photographers knew how monumental this game would be in history! Ah well, on with the stats.)
- WPA = 0.606
- aLI = 3.53
- CF = 2.139
This was the only game I could find with a CF > 2 this season for the Tigers, and it should get extra points for being right in the middle of a magical playoff run.
The Tigers had a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the ninth and their nominal closer, Foley, was on the mound. Alas, two walks and a single loaded the bases, and Gunnar Henderson drove home a pair of runs with a double to chase Foley and bring in Beau Brieske with the winning run on third and nobody out.
With a drawn-in infield Cedric Mullins hit a grounder to second which kept Jackson Holliday on third for the first out, Anthony Santander popped out to shortstop (yes, the one where Trey Sweeney made a sensational catch in short left field, collided with Greene, and heaved the ball from his butt back into the infield), and Colton Cowser flew out to center. Nails.
Did it take an incredible play to get the second out? It sure did, but Brieske still got an extremely dangerous hitter late on the pitch to lift a little baby pop-up just 20 feet beyond the infield dirt.
The Tigers promptly scored a pair of runs in the top of the tenth with a Greene single and a McKinstry sacrifice fly-lineout, and Brieske had done so well he carried on into the bottom of the tenth. A leadoff groundout pushed Cowser, the ghost runner, up to third base, and a walk put the tying run on, but a swinging strikeout and a grounder to second sealed the deal and ended what was perhaps the “clenchiest” of all pitching performances out of the Tiger bullpen this year.
Addendum: Who made the list?
I thought it would be interesting to see, out of the top 25 relief appearances ranked by Clench Factor, who made the list the most. It makes sense that your closer, Foley, had a lot of them, but I think you’ll be surprised by a couple of names on this list.
Was there a relief outing which comes to mind that should have made this list? Let us know in the comments below.