FanGraphs has some very interesting and distinct takes on the Tigers top prospects.
Most of the top national sites for prospect scouting have already published their top 100 rankings, and the Tigers have been well represented on all of them. Fangraphs released their new top 100 on Monday, and the same is true as the Tigers place six prospects on the list. However, there is one new face no one else had ranked that highly, and a different take on a few prospects who have been consistently on all top 100 lists this offseason.
In no surprise, Eric Longenhagen and his staff have Jackson Jobe as top ten prospect in baseball. The surprise is that while Roki Sasaki takes the top spot on the top 100 list as the top ranked pitching prospect, the Philadelphia Phillies Andrew Painter is ranked sixth, three spots ahead of Jobe. The two right-handers draw the same 60 grade, so it’s a bit of hair splitting really, but FanGraphs is the only major site to put Painter over Jobe.
The distinction really appears to be a preference for Painter’s fastball over Jobe’s. The six-foot-seven right-hander arguably has a little better hop on his fourseamer than Jobe does, but considering Painter just returned to action from 2023 Tommy John surgery, his durability and sustainable velocity is more in question. Painter has a really good slider-curveball combination, whereas Jobe has a good cutter and sweeper and is currently tinkering with turning the sweeper into more of a traditional slider and also implementing a curveball. Those secondary pitches still being in progress toward finished versions may have weighed on Longenhagen’s mind as well. On the other hand, Jobe’s split-change may turn out to be the best secondary pitch either of them throws.
Painter over Jobe, with the same future value grade, is a slight difference in opinion, not at all unreasonable.
Max Clark is ranked 34th, and the Tigers second ranked prospect overall on the list. Like us, FanGraphs has some skepticism about his power projection, but considers him a very good bet to hit and play good defense. The center fielder still has plenty of work to do in converting his plus-plus speed into actual plus defense, but he just turned 20 years old at the end of 2024 and there is plenty of time for his reads and routes to keep improving.
Catcher Thayron Liranzo ranks 44th. There’s a fair amount of variance in his future and charitably that’s being expressed through the mix of praise and skepticism here. The scouting report is accurate and fairly optimistic overall, but it contrasts with their tool grades. FanGraphs’ reports emphasizes Liranzo’s huge power and regular hard contact, contrasted against his fairly grooved swings from either side of the plate. His good plate discipline favors his ability to get to the power as he moves up, and FanGraphs mentions that often switch-hitters take more time to really find their feel for the barrel from both sides of the plate.
Defensively, they have praise for Liranzo’s skills and athleticism behind the plate, but think there is plenty of refinement required to be a starting catcher.
Josue Briceño checks in 50th, and FanGraphs is the only site I’ve seen who likes the 20-year-old behind the plate more than they do Liranzo. They’re actually quite optimistic about his chances to be a future primary catcher. Offensively it’s hard to ding Briceño’s bat, but they somehow forecast just an average hit tool with plus raw power. That assessment of the hit tool is pretty low in my opinion, but we’ll see if more advanced college pitchers can trouble him a lot more than they did in the Arizona Fall League, where he was absolutely a man among boys even when Andrew Painter was on the mound.
Another surprise is Kevin McGonigle at 54th overall. My initial thought was that they don’t think he’ll stick at shortstop, but that’s not the qualm expressed in their scouting report on him. Instead it’s still a concern about his raw power. A 50 future grade for the 20-year-old still seems very reasonable, but they have him topping out with just fringe average raw power. Considering the hamate fracture that ended his season last August, and McGonigle’s slighter undersized stature, that may look accurate this season until he’s well beyond the injury. I doubt that holds up over the long-term, however.
McGonigle has posted a 110 exit velocity mark in game already, along with a few in the 106-108 mph range, and he’s never really selling out much for power. Maybe he’s maxed out already as they appear to think, but McGonigle’s hit tool is good enough to hit 20+ homers even with fringe average raw power. He doesn’t have a lot of physical projection left, but I think they’re a little low here. FanGraphs’ optimism about the hit tool and the defense is plenty positive as they expect him to stay at shortstop and rake, just with more doubles power than consistent home run power.
Finally, it’s nice to know that someone else acknowledges Troy Melton’s existence. We’ve consistently been higher on him than most, but ongoing concerns about his breaking ball and some command issues kept us to ranking him with a 45 future value grade. FanGraphs loves the fastball as well, noting Melton’s velocity, extension, and bat missing vertical movement.
They also note how raw Melton was when the Tigers’ picked him, and cite the rapid development since for their confidence in his trajectory. Melton’s split-change is a good second pitch for him, though it could use a bit more velocity separation. The trick has been refining his slider into more of a bat-missing weapon. That work, along with his fastball command, are ongoing. The Tigers could have a consistent strike-thrower who comfortably sits 95-96 and can top out all the way up to triple digits. The change gives him enough of a foundation to make it as a starting pitcher, but the slider has to more consistent to become a real weapon for him.
Overall, a pretty positive report. They’re apparently not quite so high on Bryce Rainer, but FanGraphs is sometime conservative with prep prospects until they face A-ball level competition in general. Can’t argue with that. Meanwhile, they have Jaden Hamm and Jace Jung outside the top 100. Neither is unreasonable. We think Hamm’s secondary stuff needs to improve, while Jung needs to prove his batspeed will be significantly improved by his offseason wrist surgery. We’re not going to argue too much with either assessment.
You can read the full list and all top 100 scouting reports right here. We use FanGraphs a lot in our research and analysis, and so we’ll also encourage people to become members and help support their work.