As usual, Eric Longenhagen and his staff have some interesting notes on the the system.
We’re pretty big fans of FanGraphs here at Bless You Boys. Their yearly subscription is very inexpensive compared to many other sites, and their layout of player statistics, rosters and payroll construction, and prospect boards, are the easiest to use in my opinion. For years their prospect coverage has been quite good, if less timely the past few seasons. On Tuesday, they released their new prospect reports for the Detroit Tigers ’ system.
There aren’t too many surprises in their rankings. Their grades are a little less enthusiastic than most, but it’s good to have some other opinions in the mix. As you’d expect, right-hander Jackson Jobe leads the way, and while as we and FanGraphs have both discussed, he’s still a ways from being a finished product, he’s already good enough to be a quality mid-rotation starter who just needs to stay healthy and build up his innings totals to take the next step into the ranks of front line starters around the game.
The most interesting takeaway from the top of the list is the fact that they gave only 50 future value grades to Max Clark, Thayron Liranzo, Josue Briceño, and Kevin McGonigle. Their reports emphasize some points of caution, if at times seeming a bit contradictory to their actual grades, particularly when relating them to other top prospects around the game.
I can quibble with some things. Expecting tons of gap power and eventual plus center field defense from Max Clark is hard to square with a 50 future value grade. They mention just how great McGonigle’s contact ability was in his first season of pro ball, but undercut it by arguing that his numbers are so good as to be unsustainable. That’s an odd perspective on it in my book. They also seem to be underselling his raw power based on the actual exit velocities he produced as a 19-year-old. Still, it’s worth considering a more negative view even as an outlier, if only to moderate expectations a little bit.
Thayron Liranzo and Josue Briceño both have really positive reports, but there are some cautionary notes too. Liranzo’s future production should be more reasonably expected to look like Alex Avila’s healthy seasons rather than Victor Martinez’s, for example. V-Mart and Liranzo don’t have much in common other than being switch-hitting catchers. FanGraphs is more positive about Briceño’s future behind the dish than most, with his leaner and meaner physique after rehabbing the knee injury playing a big part in that assessment.
As a booster of RHP Troy Melton, it’s nice to see a 50 FV grade on him. FanGraphs is pretty low on Hao-Yu Lee and I think they’re behind the curve on that one. They ding him for some trouble hitting better velocity, but as we noted, improvement in that area was a feature of the infielder’s 2024 breakout season. He’s currently working on cutting down on his bucket stepping tendencies, also noted in FanGraphs report.
One name we haven’t seen yet stateside is 19-year-old right-handed pitcher Kelvis Salcedo, who impressed in the Dominican Summer League last year. The big right-hander throws a mid-90’s cut fastball and a has a good slider developing as well, along with a pretty mediocre curveball. Salcedo spins the baseball well, and he has some pretty nasty and atypical stuff already. He’s a little on the small side for a starter, and profiles more like a future late innings reliever, but we’ll be interested to see him this summer in the Complex League. If things go well he should be in Low-A later in the season.
Another interesting note involves shortstop John Peck’s above average raw power. The 2023 seventh rounder looks like he may be able to stick at the position, so getting an above average raw power grade is pretty intriguing. However, Peck strikes out a ton and doesn’t really profile as a guy who is going to hit enough to get to the power. He just reached High-A late last year and is 22-year-old, so he’ll need to change impressions of his hit tool for us to get excited about him.
Overall it’s a very positive report about the system. The Tigers have a lot of talent, but FanGraphs doesn’t see much star potential the way others, including our own assessments, do. Presumably they’d be more of a mind for Scott Harris to convert some prospects into major league talent. Perhaps we’ll see if Harris agrees at the trade deadline this summer.
The full system and player scouting reports are available free right here and makes for some interesting reading.