It’s bananas to try to predict this in June, but that’s exactly why we’re doing it.
I know what you’re thinking, I really do.
These people are totally nuts. It’s June. There are almost a hundred games left to go. Anything could happen between now and then.
You know what? Each of the straw-man points listed above are completely correct. It is nuts to try to predict, at this point, if the Tigers would win the World Series . And as anyone who was around for the 1987 stretch drive knows, a week is an eternity in baseball, much less three and a half months.
But we’ve never shied away from wild speculation, wacky predictions, and straight-up wishful thinking around here. Besides, several Detroit sports teams are experiencing a renaissance right now (sorry, Red Wings fans, maybe next year) and it’s really hard not to get caught-up in these warm, fuzzy feelings.
What the Experts Think
As of right now, FanDuel has the Tigers listed as their fourth-most-favourite team to win the World Series, behind the Dodgers , Yankees and Mets — obviously there’s some coastal bias going on there — and right now their odds are listed as +900 which makes no sense to me, but probably does to some of you.
ESPN Bet has the Tigers tied for fourth-favourite with the Phillies at 9-1 odds to win the championship. They also list that as +900, with +300 to win the American League and -600 to win the AL Central, which are numbers I also freely admit I don’t understand. What’s with the negative sign? I don’t get it. They also list the over-under on total wins for the Tigers at 96.5, which is somewhat helpful.
Baseball Reference ’s odds make much more sense to me. Right now they believe the Tigers have a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, and a 17.5% chance to win the World Series. That’s all well and good, but we all remember the number 0.2% from August of 2024 and how that turned out (for the better, obviously).
Fangraphs has a nice breakdown of the chances. They give Detroit a 78.0% chance to win the AL Central, a 68.0% chance of getting a Wild Card bye, and a 96.4% chance of making the playoffs at all. They also break things apart by round: a 41.9% chance of winning an ALDS round, a 20.3% chance to win the AL pennant, and a 9.0% chance of the title. That last figure is second in the AL and fourth overall behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets.
What the Non-Experts Think
During the second game of the Cubs series, my wife asked me what chance I thought the Tigers had of winning the World Series. After thinking about it for a minute, I gave her my take on it: about a 5% shot. She thought I was being pretty pessimistic, but (a.) I’m a long-time Tigers fan so that’s my nature, and (b.) a ton of things can happen between now and October, both good and bad.
I figured this would be a pretty good question to throw out to the BYB staff to get their take on it, so here we are.
Mr. Sunshine: I’m not a gambling man but I’d have to put it at somewhere close to 84%.
JT Law: C’mon, I’m serious. What percentage?
Brady McAtamney: After today? -0%. Fiar everyone. Jokes aside, the 5% range feels fair.
[Note: This was right after the Cubs whupped the Tigers in the second game of the series.]
Cannon: I’ve got ‘em at about 80% to win the division and another 15% to make the Wild Card. From there it’s a smidge over a coin flip for every playoff series so something like 3-5% is pretty on point for me.
Jay Markle: 5% feels aggressive to me. I have a hard time believing that this team wins the World Series in 1 out of 20 eventualities. But then again, I’ve been thinking about this and I can’t come up with a number that satisfies me so maybe I’m just a Scrooge.
Adam Dubbin: 0% < x < 100%
Brandon Day: I’ll say 11 percent. Unscientific, but it feels to me like there are six teams with a really legit shot. Throw in a couple of other teams with at least a decent chance. Then I assume chaos at some point and some other team or two makes a run, one of the top teams comes unglued, one gets felled by injury. Check windage, take SWAG, yeah I still like 11 percent. The Tigers are the best team in baseball after all. Just that so much could go both right or wrong between now and the beginning of October, let alone in the postseason.
Zane Harding: Fangraphs says 8.6%, Yanks 16.9%, Astros 5.4%, Mets 8.7%, Phils 6.9%, Cubs 6.5%, Dodgers 19.6%. So the live odds say we’re the fourth best odds in baseball; might as well say tied for third.
Peter Kwasniak: 5% sounds about right. After a hot start we’re seeing a lot of the deficiencies we were concerned about in the preseason rear their ugly heads. Offense isn’t nearly as potent as it was to start the year and its probably not going to go back to quite that elevated level once it gets going. But the pitching is still strong and that’s what needs to carry this team. Good pitching will get you really far, especially in the playoffs.
Ashley MacLennan: I’ll be bold, I’ll say 12%.
Cameron J. Kaiser: 50%. They’ll either win it or they won’t.
Law: Very reductionist. I like it.
Harding: I co-sign 50/50 though. What odds would you give for the pennant right about now?
Dubbin: 0% < x < 100%
McAtamney: Oooo, pennant… that’s maybe closer to 20%.
Law: I’ll say about a 10% chance for the AL pennant. Any series deep into the playoffs is a coin-flip, so I’ll double my initial 5% chance of a championship here.
Now it’s your turn. No guesses too outrageous! No prognostications too fanciful! No conjectures too outlandish! Obviously this is just putting a number on thoughts and feelings in the end. Let us know what you think in the comments.