Rainer is a long way off from the major leagues, but if everything clicks, he’ll be a shortstop who can hit for average and power.
The Tigers probably didn’t expect Bryce Rainer to fall to them on the first day of the 2024 MLB Draft . Most of the draft-related media thought he’d be off the board before the eleventh pick, where he fell into Detroit’s lap. When the opportunity presented itself to bring the talented prep shortstop into the fold, the team didn’t flinch at potential signing issues, inking him to a contract slightly above slot value. In doing so, they took on a long-term project, but a worthwhile one. He has all the tools to eventually become an offensively gifted middle infielder if he can connect the dots along the way.
Rainer spent most of his high school career as a two-way player and received draftable grades as a pitcher as well. Although he was initially not considered a top-flight first round prospect in his graduating class, Rainer spent the 2023-24 offseason fine tuning his skills at the plate and really took off during the 2024 season. That hard work bore fruit at the National High School Invitational, where he posted the four highest exit velocities among all participants. With his pitching days now in the rearview mirror, he can heighten his focus on hitting, which should give him yet another boost.
The pieces are all there for Rainer to become, not just an above-average hitter for his position, but an above average-hitter in the sport. He’s stronger than he looks and will flash plus raw power in batting practice, and he has the feel to shoot the ball to all fields. The tops here are exciting, it’s just a matter of consistently bringing them into games.
2025 Outlook
The Tigers chose to keep Rainer on the backfields after inking his deal, so the 2025 season will be his first crack at true professional ball. He’s older than most high school draftees and will be turning 20 years old this summer, so Detroit’s staff may decide to skip him past the Complex League and start Rainer at Low-A in the spring. There, he’ll face international players with multiple years of professional experience and former college stars, so he’ll need to get up to speed quickly to make a mark in that setting.
Priority number one has to be getting stronger against velocity. According to FanGraphs, he proved to be vulnerable against pitchers with good velocity who live up in the zone with their fastball. A player just can’t make a big offensive impact in the modern game if pitchers can blow them away high. Fastballs with significant induced vertical break are presently in vogue, and that fastball shape plays best at the top of the zone, so it’s a weakness that will be exploited to no end if it isn’t fixed. Rainer needs to improve his feel for the barrel and make his swing a little more compact to accomplish that goal.
Personally, though, I’m most interested to see how well his patience at the plate survives when he’s facing the best competition of his life so far. He had issues with excessive swing and miss at one point in his amateur days and made large strides in the right direction as a high school senior. Whether that holds up against pitchers who can consistently spin a breaking ball will be a crucial element in projecting his long term pure hitting ability.
In the longer view, it will be important to track how his fielding ability responds as Rainer grows into an adult body. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds, he’s all lean muscle, bordering on lanky, and already there are concerns about his ability to stay at shortstop. Neither his speed nor his instincts are remarkable for a shortstop. If his frame fills out to any significant degree, it will require a marked improvement to his defensive chops to become a plus with the glove at short.
That’s not to say he’s a negative in the field — MLB Pipeline voiced the opinion that he could be a Gold Glove third baseman if a move is in the cards. He has no shortage of arm strength thanks to his background as a high end pitcher and is capable of making truly elite throws when he has time to set up properly. We’ve seen high school middle infielders bulk up rapidly after entering a pro conditioning system before, and if that happens with Rainer, a move to third base is possible, where his arm would play very well. There’s even a world where he could move to right field, where he would keep the opposing run game tightly under wraps.
The ultimate upside here is something resembling a version of Corey Seager. It’s admittedly a lofty place to set our sights, particularly as Rainer hasn’t shown especially good barrel control yet and is decidedly a low ball masher. However, when you put together a player with feel for the zone and plus raw power who can hold his own up the middle, the potential outcomes start to feel immodest very quickly. There are plenty of ways for it to go wrong between here and there, but as the saying goes, that’s why they play the games.
The main thing preventing us from ranking Rainer even higher is the lack of data against pro pitching to date. There’s enough risk in the profile to be cautious, despite the enormous potential present. With Jackson Jobe slated to lose prospect eligibility this season, the top spot in the system will be up for grabs next time we rank Detroit’s prospects. A strong showing in his first professional season could propel Rainer toward that number one spot.