This 2024 prep pick may take time to develop but he could be a ninth round steal.
The Detroit Tigers draft philosophy is has gone through some big changes since Scott Harris took over in late fall of 2022. The scouting leadership of VP Rob Metzler and director of amateur scouting, Mark Conner has favored a much more prep heavy approach and the early returns on their first two draft classes have been good. The Tigers have a nice group of young position players led by Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark. It’s less obvious on top 100 lists, but the Tigers also have quite of stockpile of talented young pitchers aiming to tackle A-ball in 2025. Right-hander Zach Swanson is another one to watch this year.
The Tigers drafted the 19-year-old in the ninth round last July as the top draft prospect out of Washington state. Selected out of Toutle Lake HS, Swanson was an Oregon State commit, but signed for $722,500. That was about $527,000 over his slot bonus for that pick. The Tigers strategy of saving some bonus pool money in the early rounds, identifying prep talent in the draft that slipped, and landing them with a nice overslot deal further down their draft board could pay some big dividends in a few years.
The six-foot-three right-hander was still pretty raw on draft day, but at his best he packs a riding power fastball in the mid-90’s and a nasty high spin slider already. He’s got some projection to his frame, and he’s a good athlete who was a standout in basketball as well. That’s a lot of pitcher to land in the ninth round. Of course, they paid him late third round money. Finding some bargains along the way opens up these opportunities.
Swanson was pretty notable performer in showcases prior to his senior year, but had a somewhat inconsistent season that spring and hurt his draft stock a little. Most reports will mention an aggressive delivery that often sees him fly open and miss glove side. That can highlight the relief risk, but you can argue there are few prep pitchers selected who are immune to command issues. Really Swanson just needs to get stronger, improve his lead leg block, and smooth out his transition. Take it from there and try to develop a third pitch. It’s a question of how well the Tigers can develop him, and there’s a track record developing that would lead one to be optimistic.
For now, Swanson can power a fourseam fastball up to 95 mph with high spin rate and already some pretty good riding characteristics. In his senior year he sat 92-94 mph more often, but there’s certainly potential for him to add velocity as he gets stronger into his 20’s. He spins a frisbee slider in the low to mid 80’s with spin rates up to 2800 rpms already. That pitch plays pretty well when he gets good depth and speed on it, but is sometimes a little slower with more sweep and doesn’t pair with the heater as well. Still there’s plenty of aptitude here already. There’s just a long way to go to build him up, tune those pitches, and develop a starter’s command.
As a team philosophy, the Tigers are betting that taking talented young pitchers and getting them into a pro development program under their own control from the start is going to pay dividends. The theory goes that bigger college programs have much more advanced pitch design and conditioning programs these days. By the time a college junior with some wear and tear on his arm reached the draft, he’s closer to maxed out and properly valued than a high school pitcher. You’re just more apt to find a real steal in the high school class, and the Tigers have banked on grabbing a few good ones and finding enough savings elsewhere to get them to sign in each of the past two drafts. In essence they’re banking that they can develop them more effectively than a college program, and it’s easy to believe in that. Swanson will be one of numerous tests of the theory throughout the system.
If Swanson develops major league command of the fastball and breaker, there’s at least a career as a reliever in play. The bigger issue is probably coming up with that third pitch. The Tigers might decide to turn the breaking ball toward more vertical movement to play off the fourseamer better. In the available footage, Swanson’s breaker seems to play best that way. That could open a path to more of a hard slider to work between the fastball and the bigger breaking ball. Finding a changeup is the more elegant solution, but so far Swanson’s changeup is a fairly blunt object.
Of course, the Tigers didn’t pitch Swanson after the draft, and so he’s been in their development system for almost eight months now without many prying eyes on his progress. We’ll be interested to hear reports from camp this spring. He has a reputation for work ethic and eight months of conditioning and work on his mechanics and stuff can result in huge leaps for a teenaged pitcher. Reports from where he was on draft day to now may be very quickly out of date, and one might expect that some progress has already been made. Still, as even Jackson Jobe found out, the long first season can test everything, so patience with Swanson is going to be required.
2025 Outlook
The goal for Swanson in year one is just to have some success at the Low-A level by the end of the year. Heading into his first pro season the Tigers may well keep him in extended spring training until June, and then give him a month in the Complex League to get back into pitching in games. Job one is just to stay healthy, try to throw 75 innings overall and get some solid starts in with the Lakeland Flying Tigers later in the season.
In years past, Zack Swanson could easily have been one of the Tigers top five pitching prospects. It’s still a bit of a testament to the system depth that he’s our tenth ranked pitcher at this point. There is plenty of risk in high school pitchers, but strategy is to land as many good ones as possible, figuring the odds of landing a gem beyond the early rounds is higher overall than in the college ranks. Swanson could certainly prove worth the risk within a few years.