The right-hander was thrown right into the fire at the end of the 2024 season. The Tigers may take it slowly in 2025.
We’ve talked a lot about acquisitions the Detroit Tigers should make over the past few months, but it’s pretty nice to have arguably the game’s top pitching prospect in your back pocket already. Jackson Jobe still has a long way to go to reach his full potential, but as he showed all season long, the unfinished product is already more than minor league hitters can handle. Now 22 years old and with a handful of postseason innings under his belt, Jobe is in the midst of an important offseason and looking to break into the Tigers’ starting rotation for good this spring.
Drafted third overall out of high school in 2021 to some consternation from the fanbase and criticism in the media, Jobe’s first full season didn’t alleviate any concerns over that draft decision. The raw talent level remained very high and we became early conductors of the bandwagon, but then a back injury derailed the start of the 2023 season, and things did look grim for a bit. Faith was rewarded when he finally and comprehensively broke out during the second half of that year at the High-A level with the West Michigan Whitecaps.
By midsummer of 2024, it was clear that Double-A hitters had little to offer Jobe in terms of a test. His 27.1 percent strikeout rate was good but nothing special, and points to the work ahead of him to reach his full potential, but he was just overpowering in most outings. He pounded the upper reaches and edges of the zone with fourseam fastballs, threw his good split-changeup in any count, to either handed hitters, and generally just bullied everyone. The wow factor was definitely present even if the precision wasn’t always as impressive.
We were really expecting a promotion to Triple-A in July, but the Tigers decided otherwise. However, when the promotions did arrive, they came at breakneck speed. Jobe was moved up to Triple-A in mid-September, and two outings later he was on the major league roster and pitching in the postseason.
A.J. Hinch didn’t flinch from throwing him into the fire a bit either. While he came out slightly singed, it was good to see him challenged like that. Jobe got a pretty good evaluation of his strengths and weaknesses to take into the offseason and prep to make the starting rotation out of spring camp.
The big caveat in Jobe’s minor league numbers was the walk rate this season, but they’re somewhat deceiving. Having watched just about every start he made for the Erie SeaWolves, we can tell you that Jobe was squeezed a lot this summer, almost comically so in several starts. He throws a lot of strikes and typically keeps his misses small. His major league work wasn’t an example of his best control, and he’s going to keep getting better.
Jobe’s main weapon is the fourseam fastball, and he generally sits around 96 mph, with the ability to dial up triple digits. In his short outings with the Tigers at the end of the year he averaged 97 mph. Jobe’s extension to the plate is subpar and so it does play down a tick, but he’s got velocity to burn. He’s not going to pump 99-100 mph fastballs constantly right now, but he sustains his velocity well through an outing and can ramp it up as needed.
Velocity has never been in short supply for Jobe. The biggest improvement has been the work to improve the movement on his fourseamer. He’s generally getting 17-18 inches of induced break on it now, and topping out at 19 when he’s really dialed in. That’s not quite elite, but it is pretty good.
Jobe is a good athlete with a well balanced, efficient delivery and his command should continue to develop. When he can work the fastball to both sides of the plate with a little more consistency, he’ll be able to tie up major league hitters inside and some of the foul balls and pop flies will become whiffs instead. He’ll also set up everything else more effectively. In 2024, he wasn’t always that sharp but he is still very young and inexperienced and the odds are he’s going to get much better. He’s already better than most prospects you’ll ever see at his age.
The split change and the cutter were the two main secondary pitches for Jobe in 2024. He developed the changeup during the summer of 2023 and it was quickly a really good pitch for him. This year his comfort factor improved significantly and it showed. Jobe threw it fearlessly to any type of hitter in any count and the more aggressive he was with it, the better it worked. He averaged 86 mph on it, giving him 10 mph or more of separation from his fastball. The armspeed, velocity separation, and depth on the pitch really gave hitters trouble.
Jobe also started mixing in his 90 mph cutter more this season as well. With less faith in the breaking ball it was a pretty versatile weapon for him. At times the cutter functioned as a slider that he could break off for whiffs and weak contact. He could also dial up a harder, tighter version at 91-92 mph for strikes and weak contact as a change of pace from the fastball. It’s really hard to be on that pitch between the steady diet of power fastballs and the potential for a disappearing changeup in any count.
Statcast classified Jobe’s breaking ball as a sweeper this season when he debuted, and it’s been trending that way more and more since 2023. Jobe throws it around 83 mph, spins the heck out of it (2932 rpm avg), and gets a ton of horizontal break. He can add and subtract depth to it to a degree, but it just hasn’t come together yet as a big swing and miss pitch.
It’s effective when he throws it for strikes and often locks hitters up, but the big, loose version usually doesn’t draw swings. Even at the Double-A level hitters didn’t chase it quite as much as you’d expect. Unless he plans on dropping it in for more called strikes, he still needs to sharpen it a bit further to bait hitters into offering before it disappears out of the zone.
The Tigers probably haven’t had a pitching prospect this talented since Justin Verlander. Jobe has more going for when as compared to Michael Fulmer and Tarik Skubal in their minor league days. Jobe has the power fastball too but he can also really spin the baseball and his split-change is quite good already. He only just turned 22 years old and it may take some time to really get it going at the major league level, but he’s got plenty of talent. The Tigers have the player development staff to help him reach his full potential and we eventually expect him to be a strong frontline starter, with a chance to become one of the top pitchers in the game.
Ready for his rookie season
In theory, Jobe should have an inside track to the Opening Day rotation. He’ll need a good camp, but beyond Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, and Alex Cobb, Jobe has as good a claim as anyone other than Casey Mize. On the other hand, the Tigers may not mind giving Jobe a month or so back at the Triple-A level if someone else outpitches him. Either way, the Tigers will only be looking for him to throw 130-150 innings, and they’ll want to get the most out of him in the second half of the season rather than the first half if possible. Easier said than done.
The talent level was pretty clear on draft day three and a half years ago. After a bit of a sluggish start to his pro career, Jackson Jobe has come a long way over the past two seasons and is arguably the top pitching prospect in the game. He’s too good for the minor leagues, but he still has work ahead to reach his potential at the big league level. Jobe will be a popular bet for AL Rookie of the Year in 2025. We’ll see if things come together that quickly or not.