Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the San Jose Sharks in San Jose, CA. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions
San Jose Sharks vs Tampa Bay Lightning
2025–26 Season Series: First game
Time: 4:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How to watch: The Spot, NBCSCA
Location: SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose, CA
Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning (24-13-3) continues their West Coast road trip against the San Jose Sharks (20-17-3) in what should be a strange mixture of elite offence vs. rebuilding zeal. Tampa Bay is one of the NHL’s better scoring teams (3.35 goals per game) and boasts a top 3 penalty kill, while San Jose sits mid-tier offensively and near the bottom of the league in goals against.
The Sharks are on a three-game win streak, following a strong night from rookie Macklin Celebrini (goal and assist). Contributions from Jeff Skinner and Igor Chernyshov’s goals powered a 4-3 SO win over the Minnesota Wild. Yaroslav Askarov made 20 saves, including the key block in the overtime shootout.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay’s offence stayed hot on their West swing, as Darren Raddysh scored an overtime winner in a 4-3 victory over the Anaheim Ducks, rallying the Bolts for their fifth straight win. Brayden Point , Nikita Kucherov, and J.J. Moser also scored, with Andrei Vasilevskiy turning aside 25 shots in net. The Bolts are led by elite skaters such as Nikita Kucherov (54 points), Jake Guentzel (41 points), and Brandon Hagel (35 points), who provide a blend of creativity and finish that can make even a tired defence look like it’s playing dress-up.
Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay
NHL Predictions thinks the Bolts need to dominate transition play. San Jose allows more shots than most teams, so the Lightning should push the pace and make the Sharks chase garbage pails full of pucks. Stay out of the penalty box; keeping the Sharks’ young power play off the ice keeps the game simpler and cleaner. Finish quality chances: Tampa’s elite forwards need to cash in early and often, especially against a Sharks roster that trades speed for heart. If the Lightning can avoid lapses in coverage and generate high-danger chances in waves, i.e., like a chef dumping extra paprika into a stew because why not, they’re well positioned to come out with a win.
San Jose Sharks Outlook
San Jose is the NHL’s equivalent of that unpredictable indie band you think will break big any day now, and some days they do. Macklin Celebrini has been sensational (62 points, 22 goals), leading the Sharks in points and earning an Olympic roster nod. The Sharks can score (3.05 goals per game) but have struggled defensively (3.45 goals per game, 30th in league), and their blueline is less Houdini and more magician’s assistant who occasionally gets sawed in half. Yaroslav Askarov has been capable between the pipes (15-10 win-loss), and San Jose’s recent win over Vancouver showed the offence can hit when it wants to. Yet consistency remains the biggest challenge for this young, energetic squad.
Keys to Victory – San Jose
NHL Predictions thinks the Sharks need to surprise the Lightning early. If Celebrini and Eklund find space early, San Jose can build confidence and force Tampa out of its rhythm. Get goaltending to steal moments: Askarov needs to make big stops early and often to give the Sharks a shot at hanging around. Limit odd-man rushes: Against Tampa’s skilled attackers, avoiding defensive breakdowns is less “good idea” and more “life hack.”
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This game feels like a classic NHL cross-conference dance-off: Tampa’s precision offence vs. San Jose’s charming chaos. The Sharks can absolutely spoil the party, but the powerhouse Bolts want to extend their win streak to six games.
Prediction: Lightning 4, Sharks 2
Tampa’s firepower eventually overwhelms San Jose’s youthful push.
Prop Bets of the Night
Always check updated lineups and odds before finalizing any bets or DFS rosters.
Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.5 Goals (-130): With Tampa’s offensive depth, seeing four or more feels more “recipe of excess” than risk.
Sharks Anytime Scorer – Macklin Celebrini (+125): When the Sharks score, he’s probably involved.
Final Thoughts
Expect a spirited tilt in San Jose as the Lightning try to extend their West Coast road success and the Sharks look to prove they’re more than December’s favourite dramatic arc. Bring your popcorn, your sense of humour, and maybe a backup plan for overtime.
Main photo by: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
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