The Detroit Pistons defense and range shooting are keys vs the struggling Miami Heat
Fifty-point blowouts are fun, especially when you’re the one putting the belt. The Detroit Pistons are coming off that type of performance, and their Wednesday night opponent, the Miami Heat, couldn’t be further from a win like that.
Miami hosts Detroit while enduring an eight-game losing streak. Their late-game and overall offense has been disastrous. The Jimmy Butler departure is impacting their whole process more than they likely anticipated. Detroit clinched a postseason berth Monday, but they need to continue stacking victories to ensure they’re at least the sixth seed and avoid the play-in.
Game Vitals
When: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
Watch: ESPN
Odds: Pistons -5.5
Analysis
Detroit travels to Miami for a national TV game tonight. ESPN is advertising this game as the “Reviving Pistons” vs. “Heat Culture.” The Pistons’ descriptor rings true, but this hasn’t been a typical Heat year. They’re always underdogs scratching and clawing, but their overachieving girth seems to have run out.
Detroit’s smothering physical defense stymied anything New Orleans wanted to do on Monday. The Pelicans lack star power, as Zion Williamson was essentially out there alone. Since the Heat lost their star playoff riser, Butler, it’s been a struggle creating easy offense.
Look for Detroit to top lock and continuously switch the Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro cuts and screens. Those two’s shooting gravity dictates the entire Heat offense. They don’t have a driving force like Cade Cunningham, who can collapse a defense at will.
Instead, Miami relies on Robinson and Herro running off each other, hopefully confusing the defense because the two elite shooters are in motion. Bam Adebayo’s hub abilities are vital here but haven’t amounted to much over the last several weeks.
Miami is 4-15 over the last 19 with the 28th-ranked offense over that stretch. Adebayo began the season on a sloth pace but returned to form, averaging 20/9/4, shooting 36% from 3 in those 19, but it hasn’t mattered winning-wise. His elite defense has yet to compensate for his team’s lack of firepower, unlike Ausar Thompson, whose presence transformed Detroit’s defense this year.
Watching Thompson take on whoever the No. 1 option, regardless of their archetype, is one of several reasons Detroit is one of the most not-boring teams in the league. Herro will likely be his matchup tonight. While Herro and Cade were both first-time All-Stars this year, Cade is on the path of a top-5 guy, while Herro is better suited playing off a guy like Cade.
Herro is having a career year across the board but is seeing how difficult it is to carry an offense for a full season, as Butler was tasked with doing. Since the All-Star break, Herro puts up 22/6/4, shooting a shivering 30% from deep on high volume. His legs are gone, and the shot has left with him. Herro is driving to the cup more than ever (13.6 drives/G), but Thompson shouldn’t struggle to keep him in front. Going on the move may be trickier, but Malik Beasley has shown to be a plus-chaser this year and will also draw some Herro minutes.
For years, the Heat have emphasized allowing more 3s than shots at the rim. 40% of teams’ shots come from 3 vs. the Heat, which ranks 24th per Cleaning the Glass. A sniper like Beasley will look to empty the clip. Hopefully, Simone Fontecchio can continue to thrive and put together another solid game from deep as well.
The Heat’s downfall of a season arguably began when Erik Spoelstra pulled a Chris Webber vs the Pistons. He’s not having his best coaching year, but he’s still one of the best on the sideline. This eight-game losing streak is the longest of his storied Heat tenure. They’ll eventually sneak away with a win, but Detroit doesn’t have to be that team.
Projected Lineups
Detroit Pistons (38-31)
Cade Cunningham, Tim Hardaway Jr, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
Miami Heat (29-39)
Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Andrew Wiggins (questionable/leg), Bam Adebayo
Question of the Day
What were your thoughts on Dwyane Wade during those 2005 and 2006 Eastern Conference Finals battles? (26/5/5/2stl/1blk on 59 TS% in 12 games)