It’s time for the Pistons to change the starting lineup

After 25 games, the data clearly supports a starting lineup change

The Detroit Pistons are currently 10-15, tied with the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls as the 11th seed in the Eastern Conference. They are only a half behind the 8th-seeded Brooklyn Nets at 10-14. Considering this team reached double-digit wins on Dec. 10, a full three months ahead of last year’s team, it’s clear Detroit has improved by leaps and bounds. However, not many would call this team “good,” and there are still ways to make this team better without acquiring outside help.

First, let’s take a look at how the starting lineup is performing using lineup data from the NBA:

Pistons – Cade/Ivey/THJ/Tobias/Duren (198 minutes)

• ORTG: 114.3
• DRTG: 118.3
• NETRTG: -4.0

This is one of the most-played unites in the entire league. There are only four starting lineups across the NBA that also have played at least 198 minutes together:

Knicks – Brunson/Hart/Bridges/OG/KAT (395 minutes – relax, Thibs)

• ORTG: 120.0
• DRTG: 112.5
• NETRTG: +7.6

Rockets – FVV/Gerald/Brooks/Jabari/Sengun (319 minutes)

• ORTG: 109.7
• DRTG: 104.6
• NETRTG: +5.1

Timberwolves – Conley/Edwards/McDaniels/Randle/Gobert (262 minutes)

• ORTG: 117.1
• DRTG: 109.6
• NETRTG: +7.5

Hawks – Trae/Daniels/Risacher/Johnson/Capela (218 minutes)

• ORTG: 112.9
• DRTG: 111.9
• NETRTG: +1.0

You could drop the filtered minutes to 180+ if you wanted a bigger sample size, but it doesn’t get any better. The starting lineups of Boston and Sacramento get added, and both of their NETRTGs are higher than any lineup I shared above. Portland’s dreadful -17.2 NETRTG also joins the group, but even their terrible 115.9 DRTG is better than Detroit’s 118.3. You have to drop the minutes to 168 to finally find a lineup (Clippers) with a worse DRTG than the Pistons. So what’s the solution? I have three ideas:

1) Enter Sandman Beef Stew.

The lineup with Isaiah Stewart in place of Duren is the second-most played lineup for Detroit at 72 minutes. It also has a NETRTG of +5.2 and is the only positive NETRTG for any lineup over 50 minutes. The bench lineup with Ivey has a -8.0 NETRTG and the starting lineup with Cade hurt (Beasley in) has a NETRTG of -20.7.

All these lineups need more minutes, and we’ll see how the data changes as their sample sizes grow, but right now, the starting lineup with Stew in place of Duren has a total increase of +9.2 NETRTG.

Cade/Ivey/THJ/Tobias/Stew (72 minutes)

• ORTG: 123.0
• DRTG: 117.8
• NETRTG: +5.2

So this lineup has roughly the same NETRTG as the #3 seed Houston Rockets in the Western conference, who are 16-8. Of course, that doesn’t mean Detroit instantly becomes a team worthy of hosting a playoff game. Also, that 117.8 DRTG isn’t all that better than when Duren’s in, so why is the ORTG almost 10 points higher?

The starting lineup with Duren has a 1.64 A/TO and 58.9% true shooting percentage. The starting lineup with Stew has a 3.50 A/TO and a 64.0% true shooting percentage. There’s not a single other lineup with more than eight minutes played together that has a 3.50 A/TO or higher. You can’t point to one specific reason that contributes to that higher assist-to-turnover ratio or better shooting, but there are only four bigs, per CleaningTheGlass, who have a turnover percentage higher than 23% and a usage rate below 16% this season:

• Moussa Diabate
• Maxi Kleber
• Jericho Sims
• Jalen Duren

Not exactly the group of players you’d like your starting center to be in. I’m getting addition-by-subtraction vibes over the idea of removing Duren from the staring lineup.

2) Send a message to Duren

Outside of his up-and-down play this season, I think one of the things questioned the most about Duren is his effort and engagement. We’ve seen the issues with guarding stretch bigs, hustling back on defense, and the lack of rebounding lately.

I think Duren needs a kick in the ass. Benching him for Stew sends a message that JBB prioritizes hustle and defense. If you can bring energy, you’re gonna play. There’s also the possibility of playing Paul Reed to eat into the minutes at the center position. Hell, play all three and whoever’s play is the best that night, ride the hot hand and give them the most minutes.

For a guy who has started for majority of his 2.5 seasons throughout his NBA career, maybe this can be a wakeup call for JD, especially since he’s extension-eligible this summer. There’s no need to trade him or abandon ship already, but it’s time to send a message to Duren.

3) Unleash Ausar Thompson a.k.a. Athletic Draymond

To help the team improve defensively, Ausar needs to start with Stew. This puts your best perimeter defender and your best rim protector on the floor together against your opponents’ best players. However, JBB would need to adapt his offense to play both of them to their strengths.

While the starting lineup with Stew has a +9.2 increase over the lineup with Duren, I have an issue with Stew continuing to replicate the rim-running big role. He is not a rim-runner. He’s undersized and doesn’t have the best touch around the rim. He does, however, have the ability to shoot the long ball. In his first season playing PF full-time, he shot 33% on four attempts per game. Last season, he increased his efficiency to an above-average 38% from deep on similar volume. Where has that Beef Stew gone?

If JBB wants to continue to feature a heavy pick-and-roll offense, he has to use Ausar as the screener. It’s been roughly a year since Monty Williams tried that for the first time last season:

As Ausar sets the screen, the spacing is beautiful – two guys in the corner and one on the wing. If you pause the clip at four seconds, you’ll see the defense collapse on Ausar, leaving both Bojan and Killian wide open. Ausar is VERY capable of making that read and pass for a wide open corner three.

Lastly, what a finish – you think Stew’s getting vertical like that? Stew is in the perfect place on this play – in the corner, pulling the team’s opposing center away from the basket. More of this, please!

After the Gallinari and Muscala trade, we saw Ausar playing the roll-man more and more. Here he slips a screen in semi-transition and gets a wide open dunk from Bojan.

Even the national guys were taking notice last season. This clip has a horns set with Ausar at PF and Gallo at C. Cade uses the Ausar screen, Gallo steps back to the three-point line to space the floor, and Monte Morris and Alec Burks are in the corners. Cade makes another great pocket pass to Ausar who has an open lane because Wendell Carter Jr has to stick to Gallo. It’s beautiful!

DBB’s very own Brennan Sims found a set from the Milwaukee game a week ago. Ausar is essentially playing center in a lineup surrounded by Cade, Beasley, THJ, and Tobias. If the argument for starting Duren is because he gives Cade a lob threat, look no further than this clip to see why Ausar can be that guy for him. I don’t see a world in which Stew is making that play.

This is proof JBB knows how to use Ausar as the screener, and I want him to make it his full-time role. I think Detroit becomes a much better team by benching THJ and Duren and starting Ausar and Stew. However, JBB HAS to change their offensive roles in order to put both of them in the best positions to succeed.

TLDR: start Ausar and Stew for defense. Ausar roll, Stew shoot.