It’s time to play DBB’s favorite game: Guess The Rotation! Who do you think gets minutes against the Pacers on Oct. 23rd?
Step right up…it’s time to play: Guess The Rotation! We are officially done with the preseason and on the doorstep of another season of Pistons basketball. The Detroit Pistons will be welcoming the Indiana Pacers to Little Caesars Arena to kickoff the NBA season. After Pistons fans had to endure He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named playing 11 guys in the first quarter of multiple games last season, I think one of the most anticipated decisions from new head coach JB Bickerstaff is what his rotation is going to look like. To set some parameters, I think there are three questions we need to answer to play Guess The Rotation:
- How many players are in the rotation?
- Who’s starting?
- Who’s coming off the bench?
How many players are in the rotation?
I want to answer this question with data rather than give my personal opinion on how many players I would play if I were the coach, so let’s take a look at what JB Bickerstaff did with the Cleveland Cavaliers rotation last season.
I took a look at their first 20 games last year and decided not to include anyone who played single-digit minutes. With that set, JB played an average of 8.25 players at least ten minutes per game. Only 2 out of the 20 games saw more than nine players receive double-digit minutes, and in those two games they lost one by 18 and won the other by 33.
Therefore, it seems fair to assume that JB will look to play nine Pistons players each night but isn’t afraid to give his starters over 40 minutes when necessary.
Who’s starting?
Now that we’ve set the rotation at nine players, it’s time to decide who the five starters are. Again, let’s look at what JB did through the preseason to see if we can get a sneak peek into his thinking.
There are four players who started every preseason game that they played in:
- PG – Cade Cunningham (5/5)
- SG – Jaden Ivey (5/5)
- PF – Tobias Harris (3/3)
- C – Jalen Duren (5/5)
Because Tobias missed the first two games, there are three players who started at least one game:
- SG/SF – Tim Hardaway Jr (3/5)
- SG/SF – Malik Beasley (2/5)
- SF/PF – Simone Fontecchio (2/5)
It’s worth noting that Simone started the two games that Tobias was out, and both THJ (twice) and Malik (once) have started with Tobias.
It looks like we have to determine who is going to be the starting SF – with the lack of information surrounding Ausar Thompson’s availability from his blood clot last season, I am not going to put him in my Game 1 rotation, but I certainly expect him to be one of the nine players when he’s healthy.
Because Simone never started with Tobias during the preseason, I think it comes down to THJ or Malik, and I’m going to let JB’s preseason actions do the talking even if I think Tecc should start.
Here’s my starting lineup prediction for Game 1:
- PG – Cade Cunningham
- SG – Jaden Ivey
- SF – Tim Hardaway Jr
- PF – Tobias Harris
- C – Jalen Duren
Who’s coming off the bench?
Now that we’ve got our five starters, it’s time to decide who the four bench players are – and somebody worthy of minutes isn’t going to get them. That’s a good problem to have for Detroit.
So which player(s) aren’t going to get minutes? Well, let’s see what JB did with his rotations through the first four preseason games. Since the starters only played eight minutes of the final game, I’m not going to include those minutes. Preseason minutes aren’t the same as regular season minutes, but it at least gives us a place to start:
The top three with the most minutes this preseason are the Pistons’ top three scorers, and the top five is rounded out with Ron Holland and Malik Beasley. Should we interpret this as a vote of confidence in Ron Holland getting real minutes his rookie year, or was this a chance to get a teenager some NBA action in five games that don’t mean anything?
If I remove my projected starting five, we need to grab four bench players out of this group:
- Ron Holland
- Malik Beasley
- Simone Fontecchio
- Isaiah Stewart
- Marcus Sasser
- Paul Reed
I think three are obviously the backup wing, forward, and center, respectively: Malik Beasley, Simone Fontecchio, and Isaiah Stewart. To fill the final spot, we’re then left with…
- Ron Holland
- Marcus Sasser
- Paul Reed
Who’s out?
If we’re projecting that JB will play nine guys, two of the above players will not be in the rotation. I believe that one guy will not play because he’s third on the depth chart at his position, and the other guy hasn’t seemed to find his footing.
I think Paul Reed is out. BBall Paul is bound to see minutes at some point due to the injury history of Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, but I think Pistons fans should be happy about having Reed as the third big – that’s a quality depth piece.
I also think Marcus Sasser is out. It seems like this preseason, JB continued to push Marcus to try to be the lead initiator on offense. Unfortunately, I don’t think Sass is a PG – it seems pretty evident that the offense struggles when he’s handed the keys to the offense. And if he’s not a point guard, is he a 6-foot-1 shooting guard? How useful can a 24-year-old undersized shooting guard be on this roster?
Who’s in?
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
THE PLUTONIUM TULIP IS IN – THAT’S WHO.
I believe Ron Holland will be in the rotation for as long as Ausar Thompson is out. Once Ausar returns, I feel like Ron could be on the outside looking in – though, I wouldn’t mind THJ losing all his minutes if he continues to shoot this poorly. Maybe we’ll go to a 10-man to see Ausar and Ron together on the floor?
Ron has been impressive this preseason. He has played great defensively, he’s a weapon in transition, and even hit an off-the-dribble three by punishing his defender who went under the screen. If you look back to my comments after Holland was drafted, I was pretty adamant that he should be with the Cruise for majority of the season. So far, it looks like I’ve been proven very wrong. Luckily for Pistons fans, he’s kind of filling that Ausar role off the bench – he’s a disruptor, a real athlete, and is willing to make the extra pass to find open teammates.
Alright – let’s conclude by officially Guessing The Rotation:
Starters
- Cade Cunningham
- Jaden Ivey
- Tim Hardaway Jr
- Tobias Harris
- Jalen Duren
Bench
- Malik Beasley
- Simone Fontecchio
- Isaiah Stewart
- Ron Holland II
Your turn to Guess The Rotation, DBB – which nine guys do you think will play in Game 1?