While the Lions’ head coach Dan Campbell deserves the NFL Coach of the Year honor , it might be better for Detroit if he doesn’t win the award. Here’s why: any team that aspires to bring home the Lombardi trophy might want to avoid having their coach honored as the NFL’s best. There’s no correlation between an NFL coach winning the COTY award and a trip to the Super Bowl. A study shows that the opposite is true.
Why It Might Be Better If Dan Campbell Doesn’t Win COTY
History shows that winning COTY doesn’t bode well for the team or the coach’s future with that organization. Over the past decade, only one coach that won the award saw his team advance to the Super Bowl. Of the ten teams that made the playoffs, four lost in the Wild Card Round, and five of the teams lost in the divisional round.
In addition to potentially hurting the team’s playoff chances, the award doesn’t guarantee a coach’s longevity with the organization. Four of the ten award-winning coaches were fired within a few years of their standout season.
When The COTY Award Led To Disaster
Ron Rivera , the former head coach of the Carolina Panthers won the award twice, in 2013 and 2015. In 2013, his team lost to the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round 23-10. In 2015, his team advanced to the Super Bowl only to lose to the Denver Broncos 24-10. The Panthers fired Rivera in December of 2019.
Jason Garrett , former head coach of the Dallas Cowboys was awarded the honor in 2016. The Green Bay Packers defeated the Cowboys in the divisional round that year 34-31. Garrett lasted three more seasons and was fired in January 2020.
Matt Nagy won the award for the Chicago Bears in 2018. The Bears were eliminated from the playoffs in the Wild Card round after posting a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles 16-15. Nagy was fired in 2022.
Mike Vrabel, former head coach of the Tennessee Titans won the award in 2021. The Titans lost to the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round that year 19-16. Vrabel was fired in January 2024.
How Winning The COTY Impacted Current Head Coaches
While teams traditionally wait until the Monday following the last game of the regular season to jettison their coaches, three teams got a head start this year. Midway through the season, the Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh . Shortly thereafter, the Saints dismissed Dennis Allen . Then, after a dismal 23-20 loss to the Detroit Lions in week 13, the Bears jettisoned Matt Eberflus.
Sadly, that may have been only the start of the bloodletting. Other NFL coaches have been on the hot seat and could be out of a job on “Black Monday.” 13 teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention after a losing season.
While no one is saying that the COTY is a curse, it certainly hasn’t worked out well for their teams. Looking back over the list of previous COTY winners from the past decade, their NFL teams have not fared well in recent seasons. Five of the ten teams including the Panthers, Bears, and Titans have already been eliminated from this year’s playoffs . The New York Giants and the Cleveland Browns round out that list.
COTY Coaches Facing Disastrous Seasons
In 2022, the New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll was named Coach of the Year. Today, Daboll holds the worst record in the league at 2-13. It’s been a disastrous season for the Giants and Daboll may be largely to blame. In Week 2, when kicker Graham Gano suffered an injury, Daboll didn’t have a backup kicker on the roster. The Giants lost the game to the Washington Commanders 21-18.
As the Giants season dragged on and the losses mounted, chaos reigned in the locker room. Daboll’s mishandling of his quarterback situation led to Daniel Jones demanding a release after he was benched and then demoted. Daboll’s previous success may not be enough for New York to keep him on next year.
There are five teams with a record of 3-12. Three of those teams have first-year head coaches. Rebuilding a team and establishing a successful system takes time. While it’s unlikely that first-year head coaches Brian Callahan (Tennessee Titans) or Jared Mayo (New England Patriots) will be fired. As a returning interim coach from last year, Antonio Pierce (Las Vegas Raiders) might be in jeopardy. It is also conceivable two other coaches could find themselves in jeopardy. These same coaches have previously been recognized as Coach of the Year.
NFL COTY Coaches In The Line of Fire
After two consecutive seasons where the team missed the playoffs, the Jacksonville Jaguars might want a change at the top. Despite an impressive resume that includes a 2017 Super Bowl win as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles and a Maxwell Club Coach of the Year award, head coach Doug Pederson could receive a pink slip.
Although unlikely, it’s possible that two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns) could be terminated. However, he is most likely safe after signing a contract extension with the Browns in June.
A year ago, Stefanski won coach of the year for the second time and led the team to an 11-win season. But he undoubtedly faces plenty of questions for Cleveland’s disastrous year. Despite much of the blame focusing on quarterback Deshaun Watson’s injury history and reported sexual assault allegations, Stefanski’s inability to right the sinking ship could be called into question.
Reason Why Not To Award Campbell COTY
When Campbell took over this team four years ago, the Lions were a disaster and languished at the bottom of the NFL for decades. He intended to build a great team that would be a genuine Super Bowl contender. He promised the city of Detroit that this team would be the last one standing.
The Lions have become one of the favorites to bring home the Lombardi Trophy. But Campbell isn’t content to have a Super Bowl-winning season. Instead, he’s focused on building a team that will be a playoff contender for years. While Campbell may be the best coach in the NFL, it’s probably for the best if he doesn’t win that award. The Lions have their eyes on a much bigger prize.
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