Week 10 scouting report: Houston Texans close to being big AFC threat

Take a look at the Lions’ Week 10 opponent: The Houston Texans. A good team with a few wrinkles in their game that makes them a year away from being a Super Bowl threat.

With the Detroit Lions coming into this week 7-1, they are back under the lights of primetime. Coming off a big NFC North win against the Green Bay Packers , the Lions head on down to Texas again, but this time play the Houston Texans . This is a matchup people predicted before the season that could be a Super Bowl preview. Now 10 weeks into the season, and I think only one of these teams appears to be ready to play and win the Super Bowl.

The Texans are in a little slump right now, winning one out of their last three games and heading back home with extra rest from playing on Thursday night last week. They could be ready to play on Sunday. They might get a star wide receiver back from injury as well, which could help this offense get things figured out. The defense has been doing their part, but if the Texans offense can’t find the end zone, it’s going to be a long finish to the season.

Let’s look deeper at the Texans in our Week 10 scouting report for the 2024 season.

Houston Texans

2024 season thus far (6-3)

Week 1: Defeated Indianapolis Colts , 29-27
Week 2: Defeated Chicago Bears , 19-13
Week 3: Lost to Minnesota Vikings , 34-7
Week 4: Defeated Jacksonville Jaguars , 24-20
Week 5: Defeated Buffalo Bills , 23-20
Week 6: Defeated New England Patriots , 41-21
Week 7: Lost to Green Bay Packers, 24-22
Week 8: Defeated Indianapolis Colts, 23-20
Week 9: Lost to New York Jets , 21-13

Stats:

• 17th in points scored, 14th in points allowed
• 11th in DVOA
• 23rd in offensive DVOA (21st in pass DVOA, 20th in run DVOA)
• 2nd in defensive DVOA (6th pass DVOA, 4th in run DVOA)
• 10th in special teams DVOA

While the Lions were getting a lot of love from the media and fans heading into this season as Super Bowl contenders in the NFC, another team was getting the same kind of love in the AFC. The Texans were a dark horse team people were clamoring about, and understandably so. The team came off a 10-7 season under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans that took the Texans to the divisional round after beating the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card round. They drafted well in 2023, landing the NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year in quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson Jr. The future was bright.

Despite their big offseason signings, the team has had some hiccups this year and injuries have been piling up recently. Despite their 6-3 record, this team has shown signs that maybe they aren’t ready to be discussed as Super Bowl contenders.

Starting with the offense, Stroud is somewhat in a slump. Last year, he averaged 273.9 passing yards per game, and finished with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. This year, he’s at 237.7 yards per game with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s already just one short from last year’s interception total midway through the season. A major contribution to the issues though is with the offensive line. Stroud was sacked 38 times in 2023. So far he’s been sacked 30 times, and leads the NFL in most yards sacked for with 229. With Stroud having less time to throw the ball, the offense isn’t as explosive as it once was.

The playmakers on this offense have been contributing when capable. Running back Joe Mixon has taken over as the starter and has done well, getting 609 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The wide receiver room has been as advertised with Nico Collins leading the group with 567 yards and three touchdowns on 32 catches before landing on IR with a hamstring injury, and the newly-acquired Stefon Diggs had 496 yards and three touchdowns on 47 catches before he tore his ACL. Tank Dell returned from his injury last season and has 355 yards and two touchdowns on 30 catches.

The defense has been the main focal point for this Texans team. Anderson isn’t in a slump, leading the team in sacks with 7.5 to go with his 27 tackles, pass deflection, and fumble recovery. His new partner in crime, defensive end Danielle Hunter, has been explosive as well, getting 20 tackles, 5.5 sacks, two pass deflections, and a forced fumble. Safety Derek Stingley Jr. has been helping the secondary, getting 32 tackles, a team-high nine pass deflections, and an interception.

While the offense has been inconsistent and not flowing, the defense has been doing everything they can to keep them in games. Only once has a team scored more than 27 points on them this season, and while the defense is holding opponents to an average of 22 points per game, the offense can’t overcome that as they average 22 points as well.

Injury notes

Key players ruled out: WR Stefon Diggs (IR/ACL), LB Christian Harris (IR/calf), DT Mario Edwards Jr. (suspended), G Kenyon Green (shoulder)

Key players to monitor: WR Nico Collins (IR/hamstring), S Jimmie Ward (groin), RB Dameon Pierce (groin), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle)

As I mentioned earlier, Diggs is out for the season with a torn ACL, hurting an already banged-up Texans offense that also lost left guard Kenyon Green for the season in their loss to the Jets. Collins can return this week from IR with his hamstring injury, and his return could be very big in this game, as that is Stroud’s favorite target. Pierce missed the last game with a groin injury, so the former starter might be limited if he can return from the injury.

On the defensive side, there are questions all over the place. Linebacker Christian Harris is on IR still and won’t be returning this week, while defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr. is in the final week of his suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Anderson Jr. left the game last week with an ankle injury, came back for a play, and then went back to the sidelines where he would stay for the rest of the game. If Anderson can’t go this week, that would be a blow to the defensive line. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has missed the last three games, and safety Jimmie Ward have missed the last four. But with the extra time given between the Jets game last week (Thursday night) and this week, they could return against Detroit.

Biggest strength: Pass rush

The Texans defensive line is one of the best in the league. Unlike the Lions, the Texans have multiple pass rushers who can get to the quarterback and cause problems. According to NextGenStats, the Texans have the third most sacks in the NFL with 29. As I mentioned earlier, Anderson leads the team in sacks, and if he is out, the Texans won’t have a problem overall.

Hunter can hold down the fort as the main pass rusher, but he will have some reinforcements. Defensive tackle Tim Settle has four sacks and brings pressure up the middle. Defensive ends Derek Barnett and Denico Autry each have two sacks at the edge position, and that also doesn’t include defensive end Jerry Hughes, whose 21-day evaluation window was opened this week. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be ready to go right away. If he can, it’s another contributor on this defensive line to get to the passer.

The Texans are tied for third in pressures in the NFL with 89, according to Pro Football Reference, and the fourth-highest pressure percentage of 27.4 percent. This defensive line can get to the passer if they want, and going up against the Lions offensive line will be a challenge for them this week.

Biggest weakness: Offensive line

When looking at how this team has struggled, it’s clear it starts with the offensive line. Stroud is the second-most sacked quarterback in football. The Texans are ranked 21st in PFF in pass blocking with a grade of 64.2.

The loss of Green now shuffles in a backup offensive lineman to take over his role at left guard. Green allowed the most sacks on the team with five, but he wasn’t alone in being a problem as the interior as a whole hasn’t done well for this offensive line. According to PFF, right guard Shaq Mason has allowed four sacks, and center Juice Scruggs has allowed three. The offensive tackles have been struggling as well, with left tackle Laremy Tunsil and right tackle Tytus Howard each allowing two sacks a piece.

While the running game has been fine in Houston, more of that is credited to Mixon over the offensive line. The ranked 13th in PFF run grade (80.7), but the run blocking is ranked 24th with a 60.3 grade.

Key matchup: Lions defensive line vs. Texans offensive line

The Texans offensive line will be down a starting guard, and with their sack numbers being the second-highest in the NFL, Detroit must execute their pass rush and build the confidence of their backups.

Detroit might have defensive end Josh Pascal and defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo back this week, giving them more bodies and depth to punish the Texans offensive line. Detroit made a move on the trade deadline, trading for defensive end Za’Darius Smith . If Smith does play, expect it to be limited on Sunday, but even a few snaps can benefit the Lions overall.

If Stroud has all day to throw the football, this Texans offense can take the top off of any defense. There are playmakers at every position on the offense, and all Stroud needs is time to give the ball to those playmakers. If Detroit can make that time short and bother Stroud enough, it can certainly impact the game in their favor. While Stroud doesn’t make many mistakes, getting him to throw the ball away is still a win for this team.

Vegas line for Sunday: Lions favored by 3.5