Scouting report: Bears looking to spoil Thanksgiving with upset

The Chicago Bears are near the edge of missing the playoffs in 2024. Can they spoil Thanksgiving for the Lions to keep their hope alive? A deeper look in our Detroit Lions Week 13 scouting report.

Another hurdle comes in the way for the Detroit Lions this week. After overcoming their demons against the Seattle Seahawks , Dallas Cowboys , and Tennessee Titans , the annual Thanksgiving game is next. The Lions haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when they beat the Minnesota Vikings 16-13. This year, it’s another NFC North matchup, as the Lions host the Chicago Bears , who they lost to on Thanksgiving in 2021, 16-14.

The Bears come in holding onto a thread of playoff hopes. After starting 4-2, Chicago is on a five-game losing streak. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has had some ups and downs in his rookie season so far. The Bears offense has been lackluster despite the weapons they added in the offseason and the defense has done its best to keep them alive in games. Can the Bears spoil the Lions’ Thanksgiving plans again?

In our Week 13 scouting report for the 2024 season, let’s look into the Chicago Bears.

Chicago Bears

2024 season thus far (4-7)

Week 1: Defeated Tennessee Titans 24-17
Week 2: Lost to Houston Texans 19-13
Week 3: Lost to Indianapolis Colts 21-16
Week 4: Defeated Los Angeles Rams 24-18
Week 5: Defeated Carolina Panthers 36-10
Week 6: Defeated Jacksonville Jaguars 35-16
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: Lost to Washington Commanders 18-15
Week 9: Lost to Arizona Cardinals 29-9
Week 10: Lost to New England Patriots 19-3
Week 11: Lost to Green Bay Packers 20-19
Week 12: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 30-27 OT

Stats:

• 22nd in points scored, 8th in points allowed
• 24th in DVOA
• 26th in offensive DVOA (26th in pass DVOA, 19th in run DVOA)
• 19th in defensive DVOA (10th pass DVOA, 30th in run DVOA)
• 11th in special teams DVOA

Entering the 2024 season, the Bears had high hopes and expectations following the 2024 NFL Draft . They drafted their next franchise quarterback in Williams and got him some help at wide receiver and running back, giving him plenty of options to throw to. The defense didn’t see much change, but they re-signed cornerback Jaylon Johnson to a four-year $76 million extension . The vibes in Chicago were on the up and up, fans and the team were both excited. Williams even texted fellow rookie punter Tory Taylor, “you’re not going to punt too much here “ because of how explosive the Bears offense was.

The Bears are now 4-7, coming off an overtime loss to the Vikings and they are near the edge of missing the playoffs. They have a tough road ahead of them, with games vs. Detroit, the San Francisco 49ers , and the Vikings all in a row, before returning home to play the Lions again, the Seahawks, and ending the year against the Packers on the road. If Chicago is going to make a late-season playoff push, it has to start against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Williams must be a big part of that, as his rookie year hasn’t blossomed as many have hoped it would. Williams has learned that the NFL is different from his days at USC. Players in the NFL are smarter, faster, stronger, and more difficult to go up against. He’s had some wow moments and a few questionable decisions. He has thrown for 2,356 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, running for 339 yards this season.

The weapons on offense have had some flashes for Williams, but also some misses. Wide receiver D.J. Moore continues to be the top receiver, leading the room in catches (54), yards (566), and touchdowns (4). Rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze is one of the next men up, tied with tight end Cole Kmet and receiver Keenan Allen with 39 catches, but Odunze has more production in yardage with 518, but just one touchdown. Kmet has 422 yards and three touchdowns, while Allen has seemed to struggle with 368 yards and three touchdowns.

Former Lions running back D’Andre Swift seems to be having some success in Chicago, leading the team in rushing yards with 665 and five touchdowns. However, he’s averaging just 4.0 yards a carry. He isn’t the only running back finding the end zone though, as Roschon Johnson has 139 yards with six touchdowns, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.

While the offense has struggled to be consistent, the defense has been the backbone of this team, keeping them in games. Defensive end Montez Sweat has been proving his contract extension from last season, leading the team in sacks with 4.5 sacks to go with his 20 tackles, seven tackles for loss, two pass deflections, and a forced fumble. He has been a big help on the defensive line to help the Bears get to the quarterback and make plays.

The secondary is led by Johnson and fellow cornerback Tyrique Stevenson. Johnson leads the team in interceptions with two and has six pass deflections to go with his 30 tackles and four tackles for loss. Stevenson has been making bigger plays than Johnson though, as he has 50 tackles, eight pass deflections (most on the team), a tackle for loss, and a pick-six. Those two have been making life hard for opposing quarterbacks as Chicago has the seventh-lowest completion percentage allowed at 62.8 percent.

Injury notes

Key players ruled out: DT Andrew Billings (IR/pec), Jaquan Brisker (IR/concussion),

Key players to monitor: LG Ryan Bates (concussion), S Elijah Hicks (ankle)

Unlike the Lions, the Bears aren’t too banged up heading into Thanksgiving. They will be without their starting defensive tackle Andrew Billings and safety Jaquan Brisker as they’re on IR. Billings should be out for the year with a torn pec, but Brisker could have a short stint on IR with his concussion.

The Bears have a few people to keep an eye on though as starting left guard Ryan Bates was activated off IR for his concussion, but has only had one limited practice. If he can’t do much on the short week, he may not play. Safety Elijah Hicks didn’t practice last week and didn’t on Monday due to an ankle injury, so his chances of playing are also low.

Biggest strength: Passing defense

With the offense and special teams struggling to find points at times, the defense has done a lot to try and win the team some games.

Chicago has limited how many times opposing quarterbacks have found the end zone. Chicago has only allowed nine passing touchdowns, tied for the third-lowest in the league. Speaking of the end zone, opponents struggle to find the end zone when they enter the red zone against Chicago, as the Bears have the fourth-best red zone defense, allowing just 41 percent of touchdowns that enter inside the 20-yard line.

Biggest weakness: Pass blocking

No offensive line has been worse in the NFL than the Chicago Bears. They are second in sacks allowed (44) and in sack yards at 298. Injuries have taken a big toll on the unit, as multiple starters have been in and out of the lineup. Out of the current starting lineup, 17 sacks have been allowed by them according to PFF.

The grades from PFF are surprisingly high for a unit that has struggled mightily this year. Right guard Matt Pryor has an 80.3 pass-blocking grade, but he has allowed 14 pressures, nine hurries, called for six penalties, and given up five sacks. Their offensive tackles have fair grades, despite being arguably the worst players on the offensive line. Right tackle Braxton Jones has been the worst of the bunch, with 24 pressures, 19 hurries, six penalties, and three sacks allowed, while left tackle Darnell Wright has allowed 21 pressures, 13 hurries, six penalties, and allowed five sacks.

If the offensive line isn’t allowing sacks, they are letting pressure get to Williams or getting called for penalties trying to stop another sack or pressure from happening. This unit is one of the main reasons why the Bears struggle on offense. Williams is constantly under pressure and fighting for his life, which makes it harder for the rest of the offense to get things going.

Key matchup: Lions secondary vs. Bears wide receivers

The Lions have a tough matchup facing the Bears wide receivers this week. This trio of receivers will be difficult to cover, especially when the Lions’ secondary is dealing with injuries. Detroit was without cornerback Terrion Arnold against the Colts last week with a groin injury, and even if he comes back, there are questions elsewhere at cornerback.

Carlton Davis III left the game and didn’t return against the Colts, forcing Khalil Dorsey into a starting job alongside former Bear Kindle Vildor. Both Vildor and Dorsey were targeted heavily against the Colts, with Vildor struggling more than Dorsey. If Davis or Arnold don’t return, Vildor might be looked at to start again. At Monday’s practice, Davis didn’t practice, while Arnold did, so that will be something to watch as the week progresses.

Vegas line for Sunday: Lions favored by 10.5