It’s important for analysts to reflect on their work, so we took a closer look at our Lions 53-man projections, exploring what we got right, what we got wrong, and why that happned.
A good exercise for any analyst is to review your assessments and predictions, exploring what you got right and what you got wrong. With the Detroit Lions establishing their initial 53-man (technically they’re at 52 players) roster on Tuesday, I’m presented with an opportunity to reflect back on my prediction of the 2024 roster to see how I performed.
Quarterback
What I got right: Hendon Hooker is Jared Goff’s backup
What I got wrong: Nate Sudfeld didn’t make the roster
Throughout training camp and the preseason, it became very clear to me that Hooker was the Lions best option for their QB2 role, but I was on the fence with Sudfeld making the roster. Personally—as I noted in my prediction—I would have only kept two quarterbacks on the roster, but I elected to keep three in my prediction because it’s what I believed the team would do.
Right off the bat, we get to see an illustration of the difference between what I would do versus what I believe the team will do. Personally, I am comfortable with only Hooker as the primary backup to Goff, but early last week, coach Dan Campbell made it clear the team was leaning toward keeping three quarterbacks.
“Hooker is a young developing quarterback and he needs reps and he needs time. I do know that,” Campbell said. “And Nate right now has the upper hand because he’s played more. He’s been in it more, he’s seen it more, and so with that, that would tell you there’s a good chance you could keep three (quarterbacks on the 53-man roster).”
Because my predictions were based on what I believed the Lions would do, if I had to do it over again, I may not change my analysis, as all indications pointed toward Sudfeld making the roster. At the same time, I probably put too much weight into Campbell’s comments about keeping all three quarterbacks instead of sticking with my gut.
Running back
Nailed it. This played out as expected.
Wide receiver
Nailed it. The Lions simply did not have a WR-X take control of the position and as expected, they only kept four receivers and set out to grab a WR-X on the market—which they reportedly did by signing former Denver Broncos’ WR-X Tim Patrick to the practice squad .
Tight end
Right: Parker Hesse making it as a TE/FB hybrid
Wrong: Shane Zylstra was waived
The Lions love players with versatility, who can also contribute on special teams if they’re not in a starting role, and Hesse fits those parameters to a tee. His ability to be a third tight end, as well as a fullback, and key special teams contributor made him a player who fits what the Lions want to do.
After the Lions gushed over the depth of the tight end room, and the heavy usage of Zylstra and James Mitchell during the preseason, it made sense that they were battling for a fourth tight end role. I gave the edge to Zylstra because he always seemed to get the starting opportunities over Mitchell.
I got this wrong simply because of how the Lions opted to construct their offense, most notably, keeping a tenth offensive lineman instead of a fourth tight end.
Offensive line
Right: Keeping all five offensive tackles, Mahogany stays on NFI
Wrong: Kayode Awosika AND Michael Niese made the roster
After needing to keep five offensive tackles—as Giovanni Manu is still developing—keeping another five interior offensive linemen seemed unnecessary to me, as they typically only keep eight linemen active on game days. Even with Manu expected to be inactive on gamedays, keeping nine seemed excessive… unless they are worried about another lineman not being available.
Offensive tackles Penei Sewell and Dan Skipper are both battling ankle injuries, while right guard Kevin Zeitler has missed most of training camp with a shoulder injury. All three returned to practice this week, but if the Lions are worried about Zeitler’s ability to re-acclimate before Week 1, keeping Niece as insurance makes sense.
Defensive line
Right: DJ Reader off PUP
Wrong: Brodric Martin to IR, Kyle Peko released … for now
I spoke with Martin in the locker room following the Lions third preseason game, and while he said he was hopeful he would be ok, he also noted that he had to put his trust in the Lions training staff before he would know how long he would be out. Despite having the latest info on Martin’s injury directly from the source himself, I still was unable to accurately predict him landing on injured reserve .
The Martin move to IR had a domino effect on the roster that led to more unforeseen errors. With Martin taking up one of the new IR/return spots, that forced the Lions to do some roster gymnastics, including John Cominsky sticking on the roster through cutdowns and the release of Peko. After Cominsky stays on the roster for 24 hours, he can be placed on IR/return, and the Lions can re-sign Peko—who is expected to be their Week 1 starter at nose tackle with Reader not expected to play until Week 2.
In all, the severity of Martin’s injury was not known outside the organization, so there’s not much more I could have done to get ahead of these moves.
EDGE
Right: Houston over Ukwu
Wrong: John Cominsky not being placed on IR … yet
I went over the decision to keep Houston over Ukwu in more detail in my 5 thoughts about the Lions’ initial 53-man roster , but the cliff notes version basically notes that Houston’s history of being an elite pass rusher combined with a strong finish to the preseason was likely enough to win the pass rushing role over the inexperienced but high-upside Ukwu.
Linebacker
Nailed it. Under this regime, the Lions have historically kept six linebackers on their active roster, and with Ben Niemann being held out of the final preseason game, that was all I needed to project the top six.
Cornerback
Nailed it. Like with linebacker, the Lions made their intentions clear when they rested all of their top six corners in the preseason finale.
Safety
Right: Brandon Joseph over C.J. Moore
Wrong: Didn’t trust my gut on Loren Strickland making the team
The rise of Brandon Joseph was a fun thing to watch throughout training camp. With Ifeatu Melifonwu suffering an Achilles injury with no timeline to return, it became very clear Joseph was going to make the roster.
The Melifonwu injury also likely had an impact on Strickland making the roster. As I suggested as a possibility on our PODD video following the final preseason game, Strickland’s ability to play safety and in the slot closely mirrors the positional range Melifonwu (and Brian Branch) brings to the table. Add in Strickland’s work ethic and consistent improvement , and it’s clear he had a chance at the roster.
At the end of the day, this error on my end comes down to possibly not knowing the full extent of Melifonwu’s injury and not trusting my gut.
Special teams
Right: The Lions stuck with Bates
Wrong: Hogan Hatten beating out Scott Daly
The Hatten vs. Daly debate was consistent throughout training camp, and my analysis predicted that the winner would be the player who could consistently snap the ball well in high-pressure situations. I sided with Daly, who I have seen do this for a few seasons now, as opposed to the uber-athletic UDFA rookie.
In the end, Hatten and Daly did not have any noticeable differences in their ability to snap the ball during my viewings, so without going back and intently studying their snaps on film, I simply didn’t have enough information to make an educated decision. So, I went with experience, which is typically where this regime sides.