Trade up? Trade down? Stay put? Which option would you prefer for the Detroit Lions in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft?
The Detroit Lions are set to enter the 2025 NFL Draft with seven total selections at their disposal, including picks 28, 60, 102, 130, 196, 228, and 244. Since becoming general manager, Brad Holmes has taken a roster devoid of talent and stock it full of mainstays and fixtures through the draft. Cornerstones of the franchise like Penei Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Alim McNeill all came from the 2021 draft class for Detroit, and all have penned big-money extensions within the last calendar year. New contracts for other draftees like Aidan Hutchinson and Kerby Joseph don’t seem too far away, and who knows what the future holds beyond that. But this much is for certain: Detroit will continue to build their roster with a dedicated approach to talent evaluation and talent acquisition through the draft.
Which brings us to today’s topic of discussion in regards to the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft…
Should the Detroit Lions trade up, down, or stay put in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Out of some offseason boredom curiosity, I took a look at the draft day trades made since the 2011 NFL Draft—the first draft that implemented the rookie wage scale. With the Lions holding the No. 28 pick in this year’s draft, I narrowed my focus to trades made by teams with picks 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, or 32 since 2011. After that, I tossed out a couple of outliers, like the 2023 trade that included Sean Payton or the 2015 deal between the Seattle Seahawks
and New Orleans Saints
that saw Jimmy Graham and Max Unger swap cities. However, that trade between the Saints and New England Patriots
back in 2017 included Brandin Cooks getting dealt before his rookie deal was up, and it seems at least semi-relevant for a Lions team with a receiver they don’t seem to be in a hurry to sign to an extension.
In total, there were 28 trades since 2011 that fit the above criteria. Of those 28 trades, a handful were of the trade-up variety—and some of them were massive. In 2017, the Chiefs packaged up 3,639 worth of draft pick value according to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart to move up to the No. 10 selection to take a guy named Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs, historically speaking, haven’t been shy about making big moves like this with their late first-round selections, but the other two deals were for established NFL talent. They made the move for Frank Clark in 2019 and that cost them 3,041 in draft capital (picks No. 29, 92, and a 2020 2nd). Most recently, in 2021, they recognized their need for an offensive tackle and shipped out 2,851 draft pick value (picks No. 31, 94, 136, and a 2022 5th) to Baltimore for Orlando Brown, pick No. 58, and a 2022 sixth-rounder.
Another team historically active at the end of the first round has been the New England Patriots, making five trades at pick 27 or later—second to only the Chiefs since 2011. New England, too, struck a balance between moving up and down, but unlike Kansas City, the Patriots moved completely out of the first round twice (2011 and 2013). The Minnesota Vikings sent the Patriots picks. No. 52, 83, 102, and 229 in the 2013 NFL Draft to move up and select… Cordarrelle Patterson at No. 29. That move alone netted the Patriots the fourth-most draft capital value (1,367) among these 28 trades.
Anecdotal evidence aside, it brings us to the Lions current situation with the 28th overall pick in the draft. It’s a fool’s errand to project who could be available when the Lions are on the clock in a few weeks, but for Holmes, that ultimately means so little to his endgame. Holmes can clearly identify talent, and he is confident in his ability to move around the board to find that talent. He’s proven to be both aggressive and patient in his approach on draft day, and in the last three consecutive drafts, he’s made deals in the first round.
So what do you prefer the Lions do in the first round: trade down, trade up, or stay put?