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What to bet on ahead of today’s divisional tout.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers . Matthew Stafford vs. Aaron Rodgers. Every year, the two battles between these teams prove to be among the most exciting on the schedule, and it almost always feel like there is a ton at stake.
This year feels the same once again. An 0-2 start the 2020 might kill Detroit’s playoff hopes before they even get going. Green Bay, on the other hand, is on top of the world, and earning another divisional win in Week 2 would give them a huge early advantage in an NFC North race that will likely come down to the wire.
That rivalry and deep history between these teams also makes this game a fun prospect for gamblers. My fellow degenerates with little-to-no self control who should probably be putting this money into a 401k or something, but that isn’t as fun. So today, we are looking at where the lines are, and what action you should take on this Week 2 bout.
Every year we go into this game expecting some sort of shootout. It’s Stafford vs Rodgers, and neither team has been without a ton of defensive issues in recent seasons. But expecting a shootout in this game is often a fool’s errand.
Only one of the last six matchups between these teams have featured over 50 points. While Detroit’s defense is pretty bad right now, they were also terrible last season when they gave up only 23 points to the Packers in each meeting. Rodgers may have lit things up in Week 1, but over the past few seasons he has been a quarterback that has about two or three of those games a year, but rarely keeps it up for long periods of time.
The public, per Oddshark, is on the over, with 68 percent of bettors expecting there to be a ton of points. Betting against the public is often a great strategy.
Take the under. Expect a boring, tentative, first three quarters, and an exciting fourth. These teams are not likely to reach 50 this weekend.
(+240) – Green Bay Packers
(-260); No Bet
Alright, call me a coward, but stay away from this one.
Green Bay are strong favorites, and there is a reason why they are at -260, but the risk here is not at all worth the return. Last season a Packers team that was better than the 2020 team beat a Lions team that is worse than the 2020 team twice but needed last-second field goals to win both games. In both games, they led for zero seconds before eventually winning.
Betting $100 to win $38.50 when the margins are this slim is just terrible money management. Betting on a Detroit team that has blown more fourth quarter leads than has won games since 2018 feels like flushing money down the toilet.
Stay away from this one, though, if you feel like you have to bet on everything this week, take the Packers.
Detroit Lions (+6) – Green Bay Packers
We are going against the public (67 percent on Packers -6) again here.
Only one of the four meetings between these teams in the Matt Patricia era have been decided by more than one possession. That game was in Week 17 of 2018, where neither team had anything to play for, and a DeShone Kizer led Packers lost 31-0.
Detroit also loves to play well for four quarters before collapsing at the end, including the two games they lost in similar fashion to Green Bay last year.
The Lions definitely have enough to keep up with the Packers in a competitive game. Even if the game turns into a blow out, the Lions have enough offensive talent to garbage time their way into a more flattering final score.
Take the points.