Lions vs. Vikings preview, score prediction: On Paper

A Week 18 preview and prediction for the Detroit Lions’ and Minnesota Vikings’ Sunday night showdown.

In what may be the biggest regular season game in the Super Bowl era of the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings take on the Detroit Lions . The NFC North is on the line, the NFC No. 1 seed is up for grabs, and a first-round bye awaits the winner. The loser—while still in the postseason—must travel on the road for the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

By record, these teams are identical at 14-2. But what do they look like under the hood? Let’s examine both teams, dissect the matchups, and predict a winner in our Lions vs. Vikings Week 18 “On Paper” preview.

Lions pass offense (6th) vs. Vikings pass defense (1st)

The Lions passing attack is as potent as ever, as Jared Goff is having a career year. He has posted the best passer rating (113.6), yards per attempt (8.7), QBR (67.1), and completion percentage (71.7) in his nine-year career. Those marks all put him in top-10 across the league, as well—with only his QBR (eighth) out of the top three.

When it comes to advanced metrics, the Lions are just as lethal, ranking third in dropback EPA, first in success rate, and while they’re “only” sixth in DVOA, they jump to four when you only look at Week 10 and beyond.

The only variance we’re really seeing week-to-week with this passing attack is the protection, which has had an up-and-down season. For the season, the team ranks just 16th in pass blocking PFF grade, 12th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, and 15th in pressure rate, per NFL Pro. However, they’ve been much better as of late. Per Stathead, they’re only allowing a pressure rate of 16.0% over the last five games, ranking them eighth.

This isn’t exactly the chart you’d expect to see from the No. 1 pass defense in football. So let’s try to dive a little deeper to see what’s going on. I don’t take too much from the fact that they’re giving up the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL. Much of that can be explained away by Minnesota jumping out to early leads and facing the most pass attempts in the NFL. When you look at yards per attempt allowed (7.0), they rank 15th—so that is more representative of their efficiency allowed.

Still, six of 16 opponents have managed to outgain their passer rating averages, including the Lions, who were extremely efficient back in Week 7.

Overall, this Vikings pass defense ranks second in dropback EPA, third in success rate, and first in passer rating allowed.

They’re the real deal, although they are also highly dependent on disruptive plays. Their 22 interceptions are first in the NFL, and their 47 sacks are tied for third-most in the NFL. They have at least one takeaway in every single game this season, and multiple in 10 contests. But in the six games they have only forced a single turnover, they’ve allowed an average of 23.0 points, compared to 16.3 in the other 10 games. The Lions have just 13 giveaways on the season (fourth fewest).

The basis of the Vikings’ entire pass defense is their pressure looks, both simulated and otherwise. They have the highest blitz rate in football (39.9%) and the eighth-highest pressure rate (35.5%). But in the Week 7 matchup against the Lions, the Vikings cranked up their blitz percentage (55.2%) and their pressure percentage was way up too (51.7%). Despite the pressure, the Lions produced +0.40 EPA/pass play that week—the second-highest total the Vikings have allowed all season.

Player to watch: Jonathan Greenard. In the first matchup, Greenard was nearly a game-breaker. He produced nine pressures and a 93.7 pass rush grade, according to PFF. In that game, he played mostly over Taylor Decker (36 of 47 snaps), and Decker allowed six pressure that game—the most he’s allowed all season.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. Maybe I’m leaning too much on history here, but Jared Goff’s pre-snap intelligence—combined with help from center Frank Ragnow—has helped Detroit throttle Brian Flores’ defense in each of the three previous matchups:

But all it takes is a sack, forced fumble, or interception to even this matchup up, and no defense is creating those opportunities more than Minnesota. As long as Detroit can avoid those mistakes—and they typically do—they should be able to move the ball through the air.

Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Vikings run defense (3rd)

While the Lions run offense hasn’t been outstanding on a yards-per-carry basis over the last couple months, they have been just fine when you look at more detailed stats. You may only see one green cell since Week 9 against the Packers , but over that exact same time period, Detroit’s rushing attack ranks sixth in EPA per play and seventh in success rate. It certainly isn’t as good as they were in the first seven weeks (first in EPA, second in success rate), but it’s hardly bad enough to sound the alarms.

And since David Montgomery was lost to injury vs. the Bills, Jahmyr Gibbs has done an excellent job. In those two weeks alone, Detroit ranks third in rush EPA and third in success rate.

Obviously, having one of the best run blocking offensive lines in football helps. They rank third in PFF grade, 10th in yards before contact per rush, and first in adjusted line yards.

Oddly, this looks better than the passing game chart, and the advanced stats back it all up.

For the season, the Vikings rank first in rush EPA, fourth in success rate, third in yards per carry allowed (3.9), and second in rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.19).

… but there is something brewing at the bottom of this chart. Over the past five weeks, the Vikings have allowed over 100 rushing yards four times. Over that five-game span, the Vikings run defense ranks:

• 15th in EPA
• 23rd in success rate
• 16th in yards per carry (4.5)
• 17th in DVOA

There doesn’t appear to be any injury explanation for this sudden decrease, but given that Detroit had the best performance of anyone against this run defense back in Week 7, this could be a case of right place, right time for Detroit.

Player to watch: Andrew Van Ginkel. The Pro Bowl linebacker can really do anything—from rush the passer (11.5 sacks) to drop into coverage (2 INTs, 5 PBUs). But he’s also an aggressive run defender, leading the Vikings in 17 tackles for loss this season (t-third in the NFL).

Advantage: Lions +1.5. Again, while it looks like the Vikings are a really tough defense, the Lions seem to have the advantage over them—particularly when you look at recent performances. I’m not overly confident in either of these first two matchups, but the data is there—Detroit should have the edge.

Vikings pass offense (9th) vs. Lions pass defense (5th)

This chart looks just as good as the Lions’ passing chart. The Vikings have managed a 100 passer rating in 13 of 16 games this year, and they’re right behind the Lions in terms of other efficiency metrics. Minnesota ranks:

• Fourth in yards per attempt (8.3)
• Eighth in dropback EPA (0.177)
• Fifth in dropback success rate (52.3%)
• Fifth in passer rating (106.7)

The only spots they really seem to lag behind Detroit are interceptions (12, t-17th) and interception percentage (2.4, 20th). That speaks to Sam Darnold’s aggressiveness… some would say recklessness. Darnold has an average depth of target of 9.3 (second) and has a turnover-worthy play 3.5% of the time (t-fifth highest). He is not afraid to air it out and make throws into tight coverage.

Relevant to this matchup, Darnold has been phenomenal against the blitz. Per NFL Pro, the Vikings rank fourth in yards per play against the blitz, sixth in EPA/pass, and sixth in touchdown passes. That said, he holds the ball longer than anyone else while blitzed (2.95 seconds), and that has also resulted in an 11.5% sack rate against the blitz, the fourth-highest in the NFL.

In other words, the Vikings have great down-to-down efficiency, and they counter explosive plays for the defense (18th in interceptions, 24th in sacks) with explosive plays from the offense (first in 20+ yard pass plays, eighth in 40+ yard pass plays).

I’m sorry to say that we’ve gotten to a point with the Lions defense that I can really only focus on the past five weeks. The injuries have hit a breaking point, and there is no real sign of slowing. The only hope is the return of Alex Anzalone, and based on his media session on Thursday, I am not expecting him to play this week . Admittedly, that’s an assumption I’m making, so don’t take it as gospel.

Just how bad has it gotten? Take a Dramamine and look ahead. Since Week 13, the Lions rank:

• 32nd in passer rating allowed (109.7)
• 29th in DVOA
• 32nd in dropback EPA (0.290)
• 30th in dropback success rate (52.8%)

It’s about as bad as it can get. The problem has been multifaceted, as Detroit has struggled to create pressure, and their linebackers have been exploited in coverage.

Player to watch: T.J. Hockenson. With the Lions’ struggles at the linebacker level—and revenge to be had for Hockenson—I fully expect the former Lions tight end to own the middle of the field.

Advantage: Vikings +3. This could very well be the matchup that changes the game. The Vikings are an explosive passing attack waiting to happen at any point in the game. And while Detroit was great at stopping explosive plays earlier in the season, they’ve been hemorrhaging them as of late. Detroit’s only hope is to lean into Minnesota’s tendency to put the ball in danger—via sacks and interceptions—but Detroit has been lacking in that department as of late. And I somehow went this entire section without mentioning Justin Jefferson, who averages 128.2 yards against the Lions, including 81 yards and a touchdown in the Week 7 matchup.

Vikings run offense (20th) vs. Lions run defense (10th)

Surprisingly, the Vikings rushing attack has been pretty mild all season. Some of that has been the health issues with Aaron Jones—who has still managed to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards for the season (1,093, 4.5 YPC). But they’re also not the greatest run blocking team. PFF ranks them 14th and ESPN has them 13th.

For the season, they rank 24th in rush EPA, 18th in success rate, and 28th in yards per carry (4.0). They certainly aren’t a terrible rushing team, but I think it would be fair to call them below-average. The Vikings clearly know this, as they have the third-highest neutral down pass rate .

The Lions run defense has been all over the place this year, but they’ve mostly been fine as of recently. With the exception of a terrible, no-good Bills game, Detroit has managed to hold seven of their last eight opponents under 100 rushing yards.

It’s hard to take recent trends seriously because they are so swayed by that Bills game. For example, over the last six games, the Lions run defense ranks 20th in run defense DVOA. But when you take out Week 15 (Bills game), they jump to eighth.

Overall, I would say the Lions run defense isn’t quite as dominant as usual, but they’re still an above-average unit.

Player to watch: Pat O’Connor. Essentially the replacement for Alim McNeill, O’Connor has logged an average of 33.5 snaps a game over the last four weeks and has done a relatively good job over that span defending the run. In the past three games, his 66.8 PFF run defense grade ranks 36th out of 131 qualifying DTs.

Advantage: Lions +0.5. Yes, the Lions have an advantage here, but I’m not so sure it’s going to matter at all. The Vikings don’t run it a ton, and neither have teams against the Lions as of late. Minnesota is likely to know that they can move the ball efficiently with a higher percentage of passing plays, and that could render Detroit’s advantage here relatively useless.

Last week’s prediction:

Last week, I picked the Lions (34-21) and the points, tallying another pair of wins for On Paper. For the season, On Paper is now 14-2 overall and 11-5 against the spread. That said, I called the Lions pass defense a draw with the 49ers pass offense, and that doesn’t feel accurate. San Francisco threw all over the Lions defense, and even though Detroit was able to tally a couple of turnovers with their run defense, the concern level continues to rise in that facet of the game.

At the same time, confidence in the Lions pass offense also continues to rise after a very strong performance against the 49ers’ fifth-ranked pass defense (by DVOA).

In the comment section, obasse came the closest to the 40-34 final score with their 40-27 prediction. Here is your prize:

Kerby Joseph missed the Pro Bowl despite winning the fan vote. It’s clear some people in the Lions organization believe that’s because of an unearned reputation as a dirty player. And it’s pretty clear that Joseph, himself, blames Matthew Stafford. He had some pretty choice words for the Rams quarterback in a quickly-deleted Instagram story . You may remember that it was Stafford who called him dirty to his face .

This week’s prediction

The Lions come out with a +0.5 advantage. I’ll be honest, I came into this article thinking I was going to pick against the Lions for the first time all year, and part of me still wants to. The Vikings passing attack has a big enough advantage that that may be all that matters on Sunday night. But since Detroit has the edge in all three other matchups, that gives them more avenues to win this game should one of these edges swing unpredictably. On the other hand, if Minnesota somehow struggles to pass the ball, I don’t see how they can win this game.

Still, this feels like a “last team with the ball wins” game, and, again, I’m tempted to pick the Vikings here. End of game scenarios lean heavily on the passing game, and the Vikings have a bigger advantage there.

But we’ve gone this far picking the Lions, so I’m just going to lean that way again. Lions 38, Vikings 35.