Our BOLD prediction of the Week for Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings.
The Detroit Lions walked away from last week’s win against the Dallas Cowboys with a huge loss when it came to their roster, with Aidan Hutchinson likely done for the year to a broken tibia and fibula. On top of processing that ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Vikings, the Lions now have another big man to worry about.
Kevin Zeitler showed up on the Thursday’s injury report after he suffered a groin injury in practice. From our Erik Schlitt in Friday’s injury report :
Mid-week injuries are typically bad news, and players often miss the upcoming game. Something Campbell alluded to that being the case here, though he did leave the door open to a possible quick recovery.
“I think it’ll be hard to say he’s playing, but I don’t want to say he’s out right now, I’m not there yet,” Campbell said of Zeitler.
Zeitler has quietly been a stellar addition, adding a veteran, reliable presence to a position that has been relatively young with high turnover in recent years. Losing him would be a blow to the Lions offense, but not anything the Lions aren’t prepared for.
When Frank Ragnow was out with a partially torn pectoral muscle in Week 4, Graham Glasgow slid over to center while Kayode Awosika filled in at guard. The Lions steamrolled the Seahawks in the ground game and kept Jared Goff clean enough to set an NFL record 100% completion on 18 pass attempts.
However, the Lions still didn’t play their cleanest game in pass protection. The Lions gave up three sacks against a Seahawks front seven that was missing four starters. Last week, they followed it up by allowing three sacks against a Cowboys defense missing two All-Pro pass rushers in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Vikings are relatively healthy and will be a whole different beast.
Bold prediction of the week: Lions give up 2 or fewer sacks against Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are a menacing team right now. A lot of attention goes to Sam Darnold and the revamped offense, but their true strength lies in the defense ranked first in DVOA entering Week 7. The Vikings are averaging 4.0 sacks a game, while the Lions are allowing 2.0 sacks a game on offense.
What the stats don’t show is the circumstances of these sacks. The Vikings’ game strategy is very similar to that of the Lions, where they try to take an early lead and set up the opposing offense in predictable passing situations so the defense can feast. They’ve been really good at executing on that game plan, albeit often against very mediocre offenses like the Giants and Jets. The Vikings’ closest games have come against stronger offenses like the Texans and Packers , which bodes well for the Lions, especially as Jared Goff hits his stride.
The Vikings’ defensive gameplan starts with nose tackle Harrison Phillips, who has been a force to be reckoned with this season. However, Phillips is questionable to play Sunday as he battles a shoulder injury. On top of that, he’s playing against a Frank Ragnow, who proved against the Cowboys that there was no rust as he came back from injury.
With Ragnow at full health, the Lions offense should also see better continuity if they have to start Kayode Awosika in place of Kevin Zeitler. What makes Ragnow elite is that he makes those around him better; it’s a huge reason why Awosika has developed from a name that caused Lions fans panic ahead of the 2022 Thanksgiving game to a name that is synonymous with a seamless transition at guard. Should Awosika start on Sunday, having Ragnow next to him while Glasgow holds down the other guard spot should ensure much more continuity in the level of offensive line play.
Like most games, this starts with the Lions offense taking control early. If they do that, then the Vikings defense will have to remain honest, and it’ll make the offensive line’s job much easier to keep Goff clean. I think the Lions will be the Vikings’ biggest litmus test yet, and they’re up for the job. The ground game will do better than expected against an injured Harrison Phillips, and the Vikings defense will be a step behind. Give me the Lions offense’s first two-or-fewer sack game since Arizona, give me a clean Jared Goff, and give me a Lions win to hand the Vikings their first loss of the season.