Breaking down three key matchups with a deep statistical dive from the Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears.
Soldier Field was a low point for the Detroit Lions last year, losing to the Chicago Bears by a score of 28-13. But the Lions used this bump in the road as motivation and bounced back with one of the most historic seasons in Franchise history—and they’ll be looking to do so again in Week 16.
Both teams are coming off of losses and looking to find their way back into the win column. The Bears are neck-deep in a nine-game losing streak and have a new interim coach from the last time these two divisional foes faced off. This Lions regime, and its fans, have faint distant memories of losing streaks, as they haven’t lost two games in a row since they ended a five-game skid in Week 9, 2022.
The Lions will need to finish strong in order to maintain the No. 1 Seed in the NFC and the NFC North crown, and beating the Bears, in the potentially chilly outdoor confines, is a requirement in doing so.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro or FTN Fantasy.
Start Hot, Stay Hot
Coach Dan Campbell spoke this week about the Lions getting the bad taste out of their mouth. In the Bills loss, the Lions’ offense punted on the first two drives which factored into a 14-0 Bills lead, an early deficit that left the Lions chasing throughout the rest of the game. When the Bears and Lions last faced off on Thanksgiving, the Lions were able to jump out to a fast start, a 16-0 halftime lead, but even then they left a lot of meat on the bone settling for three field goals.
The Bears’ defense is a unit that, until recently, stiffened up in the second half and the Lions should hit the ground running out of the gates. The Bears’ defense allows 12.4 points/game in the first half of games (20th in the NFL) and 17.7 points/game in the first half of the last three games (32nd). In contrast, the Lions offense is the best in the NFL in the first half, scoring 18.1 points/game. To further add to the favorable factors of the Lions jumping out to a hot start is that the Bears have the 31st-ranked first half offense averaging only 6.9 points/game including being held scoreless in each of the last three first halves (outscored 53-0). Even if the Lions’ defense is recalibrating, given the most recent wave of injuries, there’s no reason that Caleb Williams and the Bears offense should be able to hold serve with the Lions offense in the first half.
The Bears’ defense is reeling since the departure of Matt Eberflus, and the offense, in the shift of 38-year-old former passing game coordinator turned offensive coordinator turned interim head coach Thomas Brown, looks sunk. The Lions bouncing back from the Bills’ loss, by racking up points early and getting their mojo back, should help them drag the Bears to the abyss.
Keeping Clean Pockets
Quarterback Jared Goff is executing on a very efficient level and is distributing the ball to all of his playmakers. Goff is coming off one of the best games of his season as he was really winging against Buffalo. In the last two games, since Eberflus’ firing, the Bears’ defense has given up 34 points/game on the road to the 49ers and the Vikings and should be primed for Goff to take advantage.
In order for Goff to shred their divisional foe, the Lions will need to keep him clean. Last week against the Bills, the Lions pass protectors allowed a 39.1% quarterback pressure rate, their third-highest in any game this season. Against the Bears in Week 12, they allowed a 41.7% quarterback pressure rate—albeit with Dan Skipper playing in place of Taylor Decker at left tackle in this game—their second highest of in any game this season. Two of Goff’s most pressured games this entire season have been within the previous three weeks. The Lions’ offensive line need, and other pass protectors, need to do an improved job of protecting Goff and they’ll be doing so while potentially having either Christian Mahogany or Kayode Awosika starting at left guard if Graham Glasgow (knee) is unable to play.
While the Bears’ defense has been struggling down the stretch, the one thing they’ve had success with has been pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Since their Week 7 bye, they’ve generated the highest-pressure rate in the NFL at 40.8% (up 7.0% from the first six weeks). Despite being drubbed in their last two games, they still produced two of their three highest pressure rate games of the season with 50.0% against the 49ers and 45.2% against the Vikings. The Bears may be without defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. but they’ll still have their defensive line leaders in pressure rate in designated pass rusher Jacob Martin (18.1%) and defensive end Montez Sweat (14.9%). Interestingly, while the Bears have been the best at pressuring the quarterback since their bye week, they’ve been the second worst in the NFL only converting 14.0% of their pressures into sacks.
One way to mitigate the Bears’ pass rush, make life easier for the Lions pass protectors, and for Goff to get hot is for the Lions to run play-action passes. Due to game script against the Bills, the Lions had their lowest play-action pass rate (14.5%) of the season but they still remain the league leaders in play-action pass rate for the season (35.4%). Against play-action passes, the Bears defense allows 9.0 yards/pass (30th), +0.09 EPA/Pass (19th), +127 YAC over expectation (23rd). and 21.1% wide open rate (30th).
Goff and the Lions’ offense should be able to carry this team in their bounce-back efforts in the Windy City by keeping the Monsters of the Midway off of Goff’s back and by attacking with play-action passing.
Caleb Williams Wild Ride
Aside from a handful of promising games when Thomas Brown was only the interim offensive coordinator, Bears’ quarterback Caleb Williams has had a bumpy ride for his rookie year. His best performance was arguably the second half against the Lions and their defense will need to find a way to keep him from getting hot again.
Williams has struggled on downfield passes (10+ air yards) this season. He has recorded a 36.1% completion percentage and a -10.6% completion percentage over expected on such throws which ranks 2nd-lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions have held opponents to a 42.7% completion percentage on such attempts (fifth).
On Thanksgiving, Williams was 6/17 passing for 127 passing yards and 2 touchdowns on downfield passes. While the completion percentage was low, The Lions are third in the NFL in EPA/Pass against intermediate passes (+0.04) and seventh on deep passes (-0.03).
To have success against the Bears, the Lions’ defense will need to neutralize Williams’ ability to hit chunk passes.