Lions scouting report: Comeback Commanders won’t go away

In an NFC divisional matchup, the Lions host the Commanders on Saturday night. Could Washington go into Detroit and pull off an upset?

Welcome to the beginning of the end of the 2024 season. The 2024 NFL postseason began last week and the Detroit Lions were at home, kicking back and watching the games like you and I. They earned the top seed after going 15-2 and winning the NFC North, giving them the bye week to rest and recover. Detroit hasn’t had a week off since Week 5, so it was much needed and well earned.

To start their Super Bowl run, the Lions will host the Washington Commanders after they upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. Out of the four possible opponents for the Lions in the divisional round, this is the only team they haven’t played this season. With a new opponent brings new challenges and obstacles. Washington has the presumed Offensive Rookie of the Year in quarterback Jayden Daniels leading the charge, and they will be looking to keep the upsets coming on Saturday night.

Let’s look at the Commanders in our NFC divisional round scouting report for the 2024 season.

Washington Commanders

2024 season (13-5)

Week 1: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 37-20
Week 2: Defeated New York Giants , 21-18
Week 3: Defeated Cincinnati Bengals , 38-33
Week 4: Defeated Arizona Cardinals , 42-14
Week 5: Defeated Cleveland Browns , 34-13
Week 6: Lost to Baltimore Ravens , 30-23
Week 7: Defeated Carolina Panthers , 40-7
Week 8: Defeated Chicago Bears , 18-15
Week 9: Defeated New York Giants, 27-22
Week 10: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers , 28-27
Week 11: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles , 26-18
Week 12: Lost to Dallas Cowboys , 34-26
Week 13: Defeated Tennessee Titans , 42-19
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: Defeated New Orleans Saints , 20-19
Week 16: Defeated Philadelphia Eagles, 36-33
Week 17: Defeated Atlanta Falcons , 30-24 (OT)
Week 18: Defeated Dallas Cowboys, 23-19
NFC Wild Card: Defeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23-20

Stats:

• 5th in points scored, 18th in points allowed
• 10th in DVOA
• 6th in offensive DVOA (9th in pass DVOA, 7th in run DVOA)
• 23rd in defensive DVOA (20th pass DVOA, 26th in run DVOA)
• 9th in special teams DVOA

For the first time since 2016, the Washington Commanders finished the regular season with a winning record. Even then, the record was barely above .500, finishing out the year 8-7-1. Their last playoff appearance was back in 2020, when they won the NFC East with a 7-9 record, but would lose to the Bucs in the Wild Card round. This time, things are a whole lot different.

It all starts at the quarterback position. Daniels, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, was selected by the franchise with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He got off to a hot, 4-1 start, putting to bed any early concerns about his rawness.

The Commanders hit a slump in November, going 1-3 that month and falling to 7-5 with their playoff hopes in the air. Since then, they have won six straight, finishing the season 12-5 and defeating Tampa Bay on the road last week in their Wild Card matchup.

Daniels is the leader of the team this season, making plays and leading comebacks. Daniels led the team to four game-winning drives this year, including one last week. He had a fantastic rookie year, throwing for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. What makes him just as dangerous are his legs, as he led the Commanders in rushing with 891 yards and six touchdowns, averaging six yards a carry.

Starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. was hot on Daniels heels for yards, getting 799 with eight touchdowns and averaging 4.3 yards a carry. The Commanders signed running back Austin Ekeler and he was a helpful backup to Robinson, getting 367 yards and four touchdowns, but he was just as good as a receiver, getting 35 catches for 366 yards.

Speaking of receivers, wide receiver Terry McLaurin arguably had his best season in Washington. While his yards weren’t the most he’s had (1,096), he scored a career-high 13 touchdowns and became Daniels’ favorite target. Another one of his favorite targets is former Detroit Lion Zach Ertz—remember when he was on the roster for the NFC Championship game last season? Well he seems to be doing just great in Washington, getting 66 catches for 654 yards and seven touchdowns this season as the number two receiver on the team.

When it comes to the defense, three players stood out to me right away. Linebacker Dante Fowler is having his best season since 2019. He leads the team in sacks with 10.5 and even has a 67-yard pick six. He has helped bring some pressure to the opposing quarterbacks along with linebacker Frankie Luvu, who has eight sacks. The third is another rookie in cornerback Mike Sainristil, who leads the team in pass deflections (14) and interceptions (2). His play has shown some good and bad, but he will be a tough matchup for Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot.

Injury notes

Key players ruled out: WR Noah Brown (IR/internal)

Key players to monitor: K Austin Seibert (IR/groin), WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring), DT Daron Payne (finger)

The Commanders injury report is somewhat light heading into the next round. While there were multiple players on the report last week, nobody was listed as inactive. Currently, there are a few players on the Commanders IR, but two stood out to me. Wide receiver Noah Brown suffered an internal injury back in Week 13 and the third best receiver on the team is out for the season.

Their kicker, and former Lion, Austin Seibert suffered a groin injury back in November and is eligible to return. But he has yet to return to practice, and it’s unknown if he’ll return this season. Zane Gonzalez has filled in for him for six games, and gone just 5-of-7 field goals with a long of 48.

Wide receiver Jamison Crowder was the only player who was questionable heading into the Wild Card game, and he ended up playing, so I would expect him to play this week too.

The biggest injury the Commanders are facing is with defensive tackle Daron Payne. Payne injured his thumb against the Bucs and would miss some time and return. After the game, Payne shared the x-ray of his thumb and the top part of his thumb was not connected to the rest of his hand . The fact that he returned is crazy, and while using your fingers are important for a defensive lineman, he might be able to play with a club. Keep an eye on him this week through a short week of practice.

Biggest strength: Quarterback

Daniels is easily the best player on this team. His rookie season has been impressive, and without his play, this team wouldn’t be the same. His ability to keep plays alive with his legs is dangerous. He doesn’t commit to the run when he leaves the pocket, often keeping his eyes downfield to make a play through the air. Now while that is a good thing, he also tends to hold onto the ball too long and take unnecessary sacks. He was sacked 47 times in the regular season, more than all but five quarterbacks. When Daniels is running, though, he is tough to bring down as he is 6-foot-4 and his speed is something else.

Another good thing about him is the confidence he has in not just himself, but his teammates too. He isn’t afraid to take a shot, and he can trust his teammates to make a play on a jump ball. Game-winning drives are difficult for any quarterback to do, and confidence is very important in those scenarios. Having four of them this season—one being on a hilarious Hail Mary against the Bears—is impressive. You can’t count out Daniels and this team until you see zeros across that clock.

Biggest weakness: Run defense

One of the biggest issues with this team is their defense, mostly their run defense. It’s their lowest ranking in DVOA (26th), and they have the fifth-lowest PFF run defense grade (55.1). The Commanders have a tough time slowing down opponents on the ground when it comes to yardage more than scoring. While they are tied with the Lions in allowing 18 rushing touchdowns (11th most) in the league, the rest of their numbers aren’t too promising.

They rank 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (137.5) and 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.8). They have also allowed the seventh-most 20+ yard rushing plays (14). Only one member on the team has above a 75 PFF run defense grade and it’s linebacker Bobby Wagner (91.4). Wagner can’t do it alone, though, as he will need support from the rest of the team going up against this explosive Lions offense, one that dominants on the ground.

Key matchup: Lions passing offense vs. Commanders passing defense

While the Lions ground attack vs. the Commanders run defense will be the story everyone talks about, I think the passing game for Detroit is going to need to be explosive. The run can only work for so long, and in order for it to work the best, the passing game needs to be effective and stout. The Commanders pass defense, despite the low DVOA ranking, isn’t something to scoff at.

They are tied for the fifth-lowest completion percentage allowed (61.9), and have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game (189.5). It won’t be easy for the receivers to get open either as Commanders cornerbacks Sainristil and Marshon Lattimore will be tough matchups for Lions wide receivers St. Brown and Jameson Williams. You might have Lions wide receiver Tim Patrick become a factor in this game, or possibly tight end Sam LaPorta become a big time target in the game.

If Detroit can get Washington to respect the pass a bit more, it could mean lighter boxes for the running backs to deal with. If the Commanders are able to press the receivers and jam them at the line, forcing Goff to hold onto the ball longer than he wants, the defensive line can get home for sacks. It will be hard for the Commanders to slow down this Lions offense, but it starts with the passing game and forcing Detroit to rely on the ground game in the end.

Vegas line for Sunday: Lions favored by 8.5 points