What numbers are the Lions looking at for Jahmyr Gibbs if they want to keep their running back?
The Detroit Lions have been one of the top scouting teams in the NFL over the past two years, and the 2023 NFL Draft was one of their best in recent memory.
Detroit nabbed four top-tier starters with their first four picks: running back Jahmyr Gibbs (first round), linebacker Jack Campbell (first round), tight end Sam LaPorta (second round), and safety Brian Branch (second round).
Gibbs, LaPorta, and Branch have all made the Pro Bowl , with the running back being the lone two-timer to begin his career. He’s formed a strong duo with veteran David Montgomery, helping aid one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL.
As the former first-rounder enters his third year with the NFL, he’s already become one of the best backs in the NFL, rushing for 1,412 yards and 16 touchdowns, while catching 52 passes for 517 yards and four scores as a second-year pro.
So, of course, the conversation of Gibbs potentially being the highest-paid back in the NFL has started to come up. The running back can begin extension talks starting next offseason, potentially becoming the next homegrown star for years to come in Detroit.
What could a potential extension look like?
Baseline numbers for a Jahmyr Gibbs contract
Well, given his current trajectory, Gibbs could very well be the highest-paid running back in the NFL next offseason.
Saquon Barkley reset the market this offseason with a two-year, $41.2 million extension, topping Christian McCaffrey’s two-year, $38 million extension from last offseason. Derrick Henry also got a two-year, $30 million deal, coming in third behind the top two.
A key to note is Barkley and McCaffrey each had two years left on their remaining deal. Barkley’s total compensation now is four years for $68.7 million, while McCaffrey’s total compensation was four years for $61.8 million.
Those two deals seem like the best baselines for a Gibbs deal, and it’s noteworthy that the Lions star is several years younger than both of his fellow running backs.
Other running backs who could be in line for an extension this offseason or next offseason could be Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Devon Achane, Bijan Robinson, and Isiah Pacheco.
Those numbers could end up changing what Gibbs could demand, but let’s attempt to project a potential extension for the star back.
Projecting a Jahmyr Gibbs contract for the Lions in 2026
Gibbs has made the Pro Bowl in his first two seasons, while really breaking out this past season with nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
So, the bar has already been set high when it comes to his contract extension. It feels that Gibbs should end up getting a market-setting deal, with a four-year extension being on par with other running back extensions, as well as the Lions’ standard.
Barkley’s $20.6 million average annual value currently leads the way for running backs, so that’s the benchmark. Guaranteed money will also be important. Looking back at previous extensions, Christian McCaffrey got $38 million in total guarantees on his four-year, $64 million contract with the Carolina Panthers .
The Lions will likely add void years to spread out cap hits, and they’ll also have two years left on Gibbs’s rookie deal, including the fifth-year option that Detroit should pick up next year. That will help balance out the new money on a Gibbs extension, as the total compensation will be spread out over six years, not including any void years.
Gibbs could also choose to look for a three-year deal to get to the free agent market earlier, but contracts are usually renegotiated when there’s no guaranteed money remaining. So, he should end up getting another extension if he remains a top-tier back throughout his 20s.
Ultimately, I think Gibbs will break the bank, setting records in a number of major categories.
Projection: 4 years, $84 million, $44 million in guarantees