Amon-Ra St. Brown is going off best ball draft boards as the overall WR5 and an ADP of 9.3. One of the key points we stressed in our off-season fantasy takeaways articles is the importance of looking at data points and coaching changes. That brings us to today’s write-up regarding the draft cost of St. Brown in fantasy this season. There are multiple things to consider before taking him at pick nine overall. We are not telling you not to draft St. Brown, or do we consider him a bust? However, to take into account the overall fantasy landscape and the return on value as you build your fantasy roster.
Is Amon-Ra St. Brown a Pass at His Current Price Tag?
Should We Be Concerned Within The Fantasy Community About St. Brown in 2025?
Amon-Ra St. Brown finished last season 11th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game, which is good, right? However, that is a drop off from 2023, where he finished in the top six. The buzz coming out of Lions camp continues to be the growth and potential for a Jameson Williams breakout campaign.
So let’s do the math on offense. Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Williams, and St. Brown are all returning. Are there enough targets and scoring opportunities to go around? Last season, St. Brown’s 141 targets tied Davante Adams for eighth best among wide receivers. LaPorta had 83 and Gibbs had 63. If what the Lions tell us is true about Williams, then he will have to improve upon the 91 targets he had in 2024.
St. Brown also set a career high in touchdowns last season with 12. Barring injury, something has to give. Touchdowns are also one of the most difficult statistics to predict in fantasy football. Before last year, his career average was seven touchdowns per season. If he regresses to that mark, does he return first-round value?
How Does The Ben Johnson Departure Affect The Detroit Offense?
Last season, with Ben Johnson as the Detroit Lions’ offensive coordinator, Jared Goff finished as the overall QB5 . In 2024, the Lions were top 10 in pass attempts, fifth in completions, and fourth in passing touchdowns. Since Johnson took over as offensive coordinator in 2022, Detroit has finished in the top five in total offense and points scored. In addition, they finished no worse than fifth in expected points per play. Our concern now is with the departure of Johnson to Chicago, what will the offense scheme and play calling look like under new playcaller John Morton?
The positive is that Morton worked on Johnson’s staff in 2022 and spent the last two seasons as the Denver Broncos’ passing game coordinator. If the Lions continue to use the short or quick passing game, that does benefit St. Brown. He excels at that level. However, if Williams is going to be a larger factor as rumored, the deep ball will have to be more present in 2025. Last season, Detroit utilized the deep ball less than 10% of the time. Something has to give as far as the target share in the Lions’ passing offense.
Detroit has a plethora of offensive weapons to feed, and couple that with the losses of Kevin Zeitler and now Frank Ragnow on the offensive line. Much the same as Brock Bowers , St. Brown is a fade for us at his current price tag. The better strategy is to target Jared Goff in round seven or eight and get exposure to the entire Detroit offense.
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