The Detroit Lions are facing an unimaginable scenario against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. At the beginning of the season, Detroit never imagined the team wouldn’t make the 2025 NFC playoffs .
Detroit Lions Facing An Unimaginable Scenario
While a playoff berth is still within reach, the team no longer controls its own destiny. The grim reality is that with only seven NFC teams making the playoffs, the Lions are on the bubble at number eight.
Even if Detroit wins all three remaining games, the Lions won’t move up in the standings unless another higher-ranked NFC team loses multiple games. Right now, Detroit’s playoff fortunes depend upon either the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers , or Chicago Bears losing two or more of their final games.
However, Seattle’s amazing overtime victory on Thursday night reduces their likelihood of a two-game loss. The probability of Detroit making the playoffs depends upon the Lions achieving a higher winning record and holding the right combination of tiebreakers. For example, if the Bears and Packers tie in their game on Saturday night, the Lions are automatically eliminated with a loss against Pittsburgh.
Step One: The Lions Must Beat Pittsburgh
Beating Pittsburgh is the only thing the Lions are focused on right now. However, as Dan Campbell told the team, “Yeah, go to work. Go back to work.” He cautioned the team against getting caught up in the “what if” scenarios involving other teams. Instead, he urged, “So, keep putting the work in, the focus, the detail, and trust the guy next to you is going to do his job. You do your job, do it the very best you can do it, and let’s go find a way to win a game.”
Detroit has the advantage over Pittsburgh on paper. Despite the Lions’ up-and-down season, Jared Goff has been playing at an exceptionally high rate, completing 3,672 yards with 29 touchdowns and five interceptions. His QB rating is over 110%. According to FOX Sports, he’s ranked the number two quarterback, second only to Matthew Stafford . On the list at number 11 is Aaron Rodgers, with 248 completions of 371 attempts for 2,594 yards with 22 scores and seven interceptions.
Although problematic this season, the Lions’ offensive line has improved and is better at protecting Goff. According to OC John Morton, “It comes down to making sure we’re doing the right techniques, being disciplined with the way we set, the way we pick up, the way we ID, and we’ve done a good job, and we’re getting the ball out. We have to do that, and Jared’s really good at finding where to go with the ball right away.”
Lions’ Defense Can Win Against Pittsburgh and Aaron Rodgers
Describing the challenge of playing Rodgers, Campbell talked about his quick release and accuracy, “He plays fast. He plays fast, and he’s accurate. I mean, he’s always had the accuracy. He’s got such a quick release. I mean, he can process it like that. And it’s with a flick of the wrist, the thing is in the receiver’s hands at a perfect location to where they can do damage once they get it into their hands. So, that has gone nowhere, his ability to get it out and play fast is still there, very much there.”
However, Lions’ DC Kelvin Sheppard recently noted Rodgers’ tendency to be more stagnant and stationary in the pocket. “Probably the biggest difference is he used to get out on the perimeter with his legs, and he wouldn’t mind taking a hit or two here and there…, he’s not taking those hits anymore.”
In 2022, a young rookie named Aidan Hutchinson caught his first NFL interception on a Rodgers end zone pass to offensive tackle David Bakhtiari . Hutchinson would go on to nab two more interceptions that season, breaking an NFL defensive rookie record. This past week, Hutchinson and Al-Quadin Muhammad just set a new franchise record as the first Lions defensive duo to each log 9.0 sacks in a season. They’ll look to increase that number on Sunday.
Pittsburgh relies more heavily on its passing game than its ground game for scoring. Therefore, disrupting Rodgers’s delivery to favorite targets D.K. Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth is crucial to the Lions’ success. Earlier this week, Sheppard acknowledged planned changes designed to improve the Lions’ secondary performance, which will undoubtedly help that effort.
Detroit Must Get the Lions Tandem Run Game Going
The Lions have one of the NFL’s most explosive game-altering running backs in Jahmyr Gibbs . But Detroit also has the most talented running back duo in the NFL. The Lions’ offense is at its best when David Montgomery plays a bigger role. In Week 3, against the Baltimore Ravens , Montgomery had his best game this season, recording 151 yards on 12 carries with two touchdowns.
Two weeks later, against the Cincinnati Bengals , Montgomery notched 18 carries for 65 yards with one touchdown and one reception for 6 yards. In Week 10, playing against the Washington Commanders, he didn’t score a touchdown. However, Montgomery recorded 71 yards on 15 rushes, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Detroit won all three of these games, with Montgomery as the common denominator.
In the last three weeks, despite playing limited snaps, Montgomery scored a rushing touchdown in every game. Simply put, the Lions stand a better chance of winning games when utilizing both Gibbs and Montgomery. In a perfect scenario, if both are on the field at the same time, it splits the defensive coverage, potentially leaving one player open to score.
The Lions’ Premier Passing Attack
Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the league’s premier receivers. With 94 receptions for 1,140 yards and 11 touchdowns through Week 15, St. Brown is heading towards his fourth consecutive Pro-Bowl season. But this season, Jameson Williams is also garnering his share of acclaim. Together, the two are an elite combination of consistency, speed, and reliability. Jamo has 52 receptions for 936 yards and seven scores. This will be his second-consecutive 1,000-yard season.
Speaking to the media on Friday, Campbell was full of praise for Williams’ growing maturity, improved route running, and his understanding of the offense. “He’s grown so much…He’s a pro – the way he works, the way he digests the game plan, what it means to him…. He’s just taken off…When you’ve got the athletic ability he has, and the other things begin to come in – the discipline of your route depth… and how you stop and where you come back to the quarterback, what Goff wants, what we’re looking for, all these things…And with his speed and ability to stop, it makes it very difficult. So, he’s grown a ton. I’m proud of him.”
A Must-Win Game For The Lions
Detroit must win the next three games. This Lions team is at its best with their backs against the wall. Campbell’s team hasn’t lost back-to-back games since 2022. As of Thursday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook had the Lions as seven-point favorites over the Steelers. First, get the win against Pittsburgh. After that, the Lions can look forward to feasting on Christmas with a win against the Minnesota Vikings.
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