One of the great allures of having Matthew Stafford as the quarterback of the Detroit Lions over the last 12 seasons was watching No. 9 uncork the deep throw. Few QBs have ever had Stafford’s easy, natural arm strength and deep-ball velocity. It’s aesthetically gorgeous and it was an important part of what has made Stafford as successful as he’s been.
That is not the case with his Detroit successor, Jared Goff. The deep ball simply is not where Goff has buttered his bread as the quarterback of the Los Angeles Rams the last five seasons, or at Cal in college before that. Goff relies on pinpoint accuracy, proper spacing on routes and thrives on the intermediate routes.
It’s difficult to compare the outcomes because the two have played in such divergent offensive schemes, but it’s also important to know that the Lions offense fans have come to know under Stafford is simply not a feasible way to succeed with Goff.
When looked at under more of a statistical microscope, the differences between the two really stand out.
Johnny Kinsley of the Brick Wall Blitz painstakingly broke down the exact figures from all sorts of different deep passing situations and compiled them into a handy graph. His findings reinforce the popularly held belief that Stafford is a very good, albeit risky, deep thrower while Goff is near the bottom of the NFL’s regular starters.
The full compilation of all throws that traveled at least 21 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in 2020:
Stafford checks in at No. 9 (ranked by the accuracy of passes), sandwiched between Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert. There’s a lot to process in the data here, but there are two main conclusions from Stafford’s stats that reaffirm the game tape:
- He was not afraid to take shots to covered receivers deep.
- Stafford threw the deep ball to the middle of the field an inordinate amount compared to other QBs, though not always successfully.
Now that the offense in Detroit is transforming under new head coach Dan Campbell, offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and with Goff at the controls, the emphasis on throwing deep more effectively goes away. It’s simply not where Goff wins.
The new (effective March 17th) Lions quarterback, Goff finished near the bottom. Only Joe Burrow (!?!), Mitchell Trubisky, Andy Dalton and Dwayne Haskins finished lower in the rankings than Goff.
It’s from a different offense, one much more timing-based under head coach Sean McVay than what Stafford operated under Darrell Bevell in Detroit. Goff’s Rams also lacked a legitimate deep threat at outside wide receiver, though it’s also not a system that requires one to be effective.
The disturbing figures on Goff:
- He was dead last (3-of-19) in accuracy on tight-window throws of 21 or more yards. Stafford was 13th, lower than expected but still considerably better than Goff.
- The deep ball threat completely goes away when Goff is under pressure. Some of that is certainly schematic and by design, but he still went 0-of-9 on deep throws under pressure. Only the Saints QBs (primarily Drew Brees) were worse.
Kinsley strung out every possible breakout you could desire in a long Twitter thread, from deep throws outside the pocket to tight window passes to volume figures. It’s an interesting rabbit hole to descend…
IT’S HERE: The 2020-21 Deep Ball Project is finally out. See how accurate your quarterback was throwing the ball downfield! https://t.co/nIY6i5RDD8 pic.twitter.com/Gb5LzKgOsc
— Johnny Kinsley (Deep Ball Project Out Now!!!) (@Brickwallblitz) February 16, 2021
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