Breaking down six key matchups with a deep statistical dive from the Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions
For the second consecutive year, the Detroit Lions will have a home Divisional Round game, and their challenger this time around is fittingly the Washington Commanders . For a team that continually has been slaying their franchise’s demons, the Lions’ ability to beat a Washington franchise, which embarrassingly blew them out in the 1991 NFC Championship Game, is another opportunity to put their past woes in the rear-view mirror.
The Commanders, with second overall pick quarterback Jayden Daniels, running a rejuvenated Kliff Kingsbury offense, took the NFL by storm this season. Based on preseason projections, they are the most unexpected Divisional Round competitor. Head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters built a winning roster with a strong locker room culture that had an eight-win turnaround from last season.
The Commanders are nearly double-digit underdogs and the Lions team point total of 33.5 is the highest of any team in any game this season for a reason. The only scenario where the Commanders come into a raucous Ford Field and prove they belong will be if the dynamic Daniels plays lights-out through the air and on the ground. Given that, a number of this preview article’s matchups will evaluate how Daniels operates.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro or FTN Fantasy.
No-Huddle Havoc
One aspect that makes the Commanders offense unique is their reliance, and unified mastery, of a no-huddle offense helmed by Daniels. It’s something they have incorporated at an absurdly high frequency throughout the year, as the Kingsbury offense often does, in part to ease Daniels’ transition to the NFL.
Daniels played 1,079 snaps in the regular season and an overwhelmingly league-leading 673 of the snaps (62.4%) were out of no-huddle. No other quarterback ran more than 290 snaps out of no-huddle. Daniels had 388 out of his 599 total dropbacks out of no-huddle (64.8%) which translated to 18.1 no-huddle attempts per game—the most as far back as FTN’s data goes (2019).
The Commanders no-huddle approach allows them to dictate the defensive personnel on the field, and prevent them from fully communicating their defensive arsenal of plays while tiring out some of the defenders on the field.
This season, from no-huddle, Daniels produced 2,147 passing yards (first), 13 passing touchdowns (first), and 109 first downs (first). Interestingly though, those impressive counting statistics, don’t translate to some efficiency metrics.
From no-huddle this season, Daniels also produced 7.0 yards/attempt (t-14th), 66.1% completion percentage (18th), seven interceptions (most in the NFL), +0.66 EPA/dropback (18th), 3.1 YAC/Attempt (18th), 48.9% success rate (19th), and only a 7.5% explosive rate (24th). Every single one of those passing metrics is worse when Daniels runs no-huddle versus when they huddle normally.
One advantage to the no-huddle is the improved success Daniels has toting the rock, which is likely part of the rationale. When doing so, Daniels’ results on the ground totaled 579 rushing yards (first), 6.4 yards/carry (fifth), 37 first downs (first), 0.39 EPA/attempt (third), 6.4% DVOA (sixth), 59.3% success rate (sixth), 12.1 avoided tackle rate (third), 5.3 yards before contact (fifth), and 1.1 yards after contact (first).
Overall as a rushing offense, when it comes to no-huddle, the Commanders 309 rushing attempts is 148 more rushing attempts than the next closest team this season. Their 111 no-huddle rushing first downs is 56 more than the next closest team. From no-huddle, they average 5.3 yards/carry (fifth), +0.22 EPA/attempt (eighth), 55.3% success rate (10th), 3.1 yards before contact (sixth), and 14.9% explosive rush rate (seventh). The fact that those efficiency metrics are all top 10, despite their frequent tendency to do so, is quite impressive. The Commanders’ no-huddle attack on the ground is their strength on that side of the ball aside from Daniels’ magic-making on late downs.
Having Alex Anzalone back for the Lions defense is a major benefit for a number of reasons but in particular with no-huddle assignment and alignment communication.
The Lions defense has faced 89 dropbacks (14th) from no-huddle passing and only 31 rushing attempts (23rd) from it this season. The discrepancy is likely based on opposing teams no-huddle efforts against them being when the opponents are trailing and attempting to make up the deficit. Facing the Bears twice this season was good preparation for the no-huddle, as they run it the second most in the league and accounted for 21.6% of the no-huddle snaps the Lions faced.
Against no-huddle passing, the Lions defense has fared decently in making plays. They’ve allowed only a 59.0% completion percentage (sixth), 7.6 yards/attempt (23rd), +0.06 EPA/dropback (17th), a 48.7% success rate (13th), forced a 5.1% throwaway rate (sixth), had 13 pass break-ups (fifth), and recorded three interceptions (t-third).
But as highlighted above, passing hasn’t been the strength of the Commanders no-huddle offense. It’s a limited sample size, 31 carries, but the Lions run defense regresses mightily when defending it from no-huddle.
From no-huddle, the Lions defense has allowed 5.7 yards/carry (29th), +0.32 EPA/carry (29th), 71.0% success rate (31st), 3.3 yards before contact (28th), 2.4 yards after contact (25th), a 29.0% avoided tackle rate (31st), and a 19.4% explosion rate (29th). They devolve into one of the worst run defenses when the opposing offense doesn’t huddle.
The Lions defense will need to key in on not letting the Commanders catch them off guard after a successful first or second down play or after converting for a new set of downs. I’ll be keeping an eye on if the Lions still lean into their base defense usage, as they did for a majority of the season, or if the Commanders’ no-huddle frequency has them playing more nickel, as they’ve done so more recently. Regardless, it’s safe to assume that Aaron Glenn has been hammering home their strategy in defending the hurry up in this week’s preparation.
Preventing a dual-threat debacle
During the current Lions regime, and dating back to before Glenn was defensive coordinator, there has been much consternation among Lions fans about their inability to defend mobile quarterbacks like Daniels. Even Dan Campbell on Monday, when asked about that perception of being unable to handle running quarterbacks, replied with “Tell me who does?”
It’s true that the success of mobile quarterbacks is now a challenge for most teams in the modern era of football. Unfortunately, there is some truth in that the Lions have struggled this season when tasked with stopping fleet of foot quarterbacks.
The Lions defense against both scrambles and quarterback designed runs, are outside of the top 20 teams in a majority of metrics. However, some of their worst performances against mobile quarterbacks coincide with Anzalone’s injury absence. As highlighted above, Anzalone will be a pivotal player in the Lions ability to containing Daniels on the ground, not only because he’ll join forces at the second level with Jack Campbell, but also because it removes other linebackers who had to fill in his place that were liabilities against athletic quarterbacks. Below are the Lions’ defensive metrics when defending both scrambles and designed quarterback runs, in games Anzalone played (Weeks 1-11, 18). While they aren’t great numbers, they’re far better than when he’s not on the field.
QB Scrambles:
- 7.8 yards/carry (16th)
- 9 first downs allowed (14th)
- +0.61 EPA/carry (22nd)
- 57.1 success rate (12th)
- 38.1% explosive run rate (26th)
- 4.8% avoided tackle rate (13th)
QB Designed Runs:
- 4.6% yards/carry (23rd)
- 8 first downs allowed (18th)
- +0.26 EPA/carry (18th)
- 58.3% success rate (15th)
- 25% explosives run rate (31st)
- 25% avoided tackle rate (29th)
Besides Anzalone, Ifeatu Melifonwu’s return is one I think will positively impact keeping Daniels corralled in from game breaking plays with his legs. Melifonwu’s availability has allowed Glenn to play more nickel defense, getting another smaller, more athletic body on the field to enhance the overall speed of the defense. Having Melifonwu or Brian Branch consistently closer to the line of scrimmage will be another added benefit in their efforts.
Daniels as a threat on the ground is undeniable. His 891 rushing yards this season was second only to Lamar Jackson (915), while his +67.0 rushing EPA, 348 yards after contact, and 85 15+ MPH runs led the league.
Defending the run from no-huddle and stopping Daniels on the ground will be the Lions defense’s largest obstacle in putting their own offense into a position to succeed. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card game, the Commanders offense owned the time of possession to the tune of 35:26. They limited the Buccaneers offense to only seven possessions the entire game. To win this game, the Lions offense will need as many opportunities to own the clock and pile points onto the board against the Commanders defense.
Dose of their own medicine
Another avenue for the Commanders offense to stay on the field is their historically dominant fourth down offense. It’s been well-documented this week, that the Commanders 87.0% fourth down conversion is the highest in the NFL this season. In fact, their fourth down offense had the highest conversion rate of any offense with at least 15 fourth down attempts since at least 1991.
On the other side, the Lions know a thing or two about aggressive fourth down decision making, as their 33 attempts is the fourth most this season. Both the Lions (+119.9%) and Commanders (+103.5%) were the only two teams in the NFL to gain over a full game’s worth of win probability added as a result of going for it on fourth down this season. I would hate to be the casino pit boss if Dan Campbell and Dan Quinn were on the same craps table together.
The Lions defense faced 29 fourth down attempts this season (eighth most) and were very prepared when defending it. The Lions defense was second in the NFL in allowing only a 41.4% fourth down conversion rate. To further tap into their fourth down performance, the Lions defense recorded a -0.67 EPA/play (fifth), -0.89 EPA/pass (sixth), 1.6 average yards separation/target (third), eight quarterback pressures (fourth), +0.25 EPA/rush (ninth), 0.10 rushing yards before contact (sixth), and a 28.6% stuff rate (10th) on such plays.
The Lions will be a formidable challenger in mitigating the Commanders offense from extending drives on fourth down and getting the ball back in their offense’s hands.
Glenn’s bread and butter
Aaron Glenn’s defensive philosophy as defensive coordinator of the Lions has been to play a ton of man coverage. This season, the Lions defense led the NFL (tied with Denver) by running man coverage on 60.7% of dropbacks.
Against man coverage, Daniels completed 62.3.% of his passes (11th), threw 20 of his 25 passing touchdowns (t-seventh), averaged only 6.4 yards/attempt (26th), registered a 103.9 passer rating (seventh), a +0.07 EPA/dropback (19th), a 43.7% success rate (28th), and an 8.3% explosive pass rate (29th). As a rookie, aside from his passing touchdowns, Daniels has been a much more comfortable and competent quarterback against zone coverage. His ability to shred zone coverage explains why he was able to have so much success in the Wild Card round against the Buccaneers, as they run zone coverage on 66.3% of dropbacks (third).
If the Lions defense can stop the run and make the Commanders one-dimensional, you can bet they’ll continue to rely on the strength of their man coverage abilities. That’s even though man coverage—with defenders turning their back to the quarterback more often—is more susceptible to quarterback scrambles.
Five yards and a cloud of dust
The Sonic and Knuckles Comeback Tour is going to be appointment television Saturday night. The duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for nearly 2,200 rushing yards, 32 total touchdowns, and nearly 5.0 yards/carry this season. Montgomery’s Ford Field pregame player introduction, in his first game back since what was initially reported as a season ending knee injury in Week 15, is going to set the tone for the rest of the night. Who knows? Maybe even the two running backs run out and are announced together again.
The reason for the excitement is because the Commanders run defense might be the weakest unit among all units in this Divisional Round matchup. They actually allowed more yards on the ground, 2,337, than Gibbs & Montgomery totaled on the season (third most allowed in the league).
Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt’s run defense allowed 4.8 yards/carry (28th), 42.9% success rate (24th), +0.03 EPA/carry (26th), 2.3 yards before contact (28th), 2.4 yards after contact (20th), and a 13.1% explosive run rate (t-26th). As a surprise to no one, the Lions are one of the best under-center run teams in the NFL, while the Commanders run defense is the opposite. On such runs, the Commanders run defense has allowed the highest success rate (47.0%) and the most yards before contact per carry (1.8), while also ceding the second highest explosive run rate (13.7%)
The expectation going into the season was that the Commanders should be stout up front, and free agent linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu have held up their end of the bargain. But their edge defenders, Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr., are very vulnerable hunkering down against the run, and the once Pro Bowl caliber interior duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have fallen off a cliff this season. Additionally on the interior, their 2022 second-round pick Phidarian Mathis was cut three weeks ago, and recent second-round defensive tackle, Jer’Zahn Newton, is a skilled gap shooting penetrator who has experienced some tough-sledding in the ground and pound NFL trenches. Any way you slice it—whether it’s in the red zone, on early downs, or on third down, outside zone or on power-running—their run defense has been the Achilles heel of the team.
It’s a game that should allow for Gibbs, Montgomery, and the Detroit People Movers to take over early and control the game throughout, while keeping Jayden Daniels glued to the bench. Ticket prices are so expensive in Ford Field, at least he’ll have good seats for the fireworks show.
Running the Goffense
Similar to the Lions’ rushing attack, just about any metric favors Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing offense. Goff and Ben Johnson have been the most lethal when facing man coverage.
While Dan Quinn doesn’t quite have the horses to run man coverage, he still has relied upon it heavily this year. On the season, the Commanders defense has run man coverage on 57.6% of dropbacks (sixth), in the last eight weeks they’ve ran it at the second-highest rate (61.5%), right behind the Lions, and they even ran it on 78.3% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks last week.
Goff lead the NFL with 71.3% completion percentage against man coverage and threw 20 passing touchdowns without a single interception. There have been only four quarterback season since 2021 that threw 10+ touchdowns and 0 interceptions against man coverage. Jared Goff has three of those four such seasons (2021, 2023, 2024). The Commanders defense, not to be outdone, allowed 15 passing touchdowns and two interceptions against man coverage this season.
It’s a tale as old as time for the league’s highest-scoring offense. The Lions should be able to consistently run the ball and set up Goff for manageable situations to kill the Commanders with death by a thousand chunks on in-breaker routes (which they struggle against). This game is the offenses to win.