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Bills vs. Lions Preview: Will Detroit Exploit Buffalo’s Fatal Flaw?

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Bills Lions

The Buffalo Bills’ two worst performances of the season—losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams —were borne from an inability to stop the run. Now they travel to face a dominant Detroit Lions squad capable of embarrassing them on the ground.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott faces a lot of pressure to show his coaching staff learned from the mistakes made in last week’s 44-42 defeat by the Rams. Another disastrous defensive showing would strongly suggest Buffalo isn’t a true Super Bowl contender despite its 10-3 record.

Meanwhile, Detroit (12-1) has plenty of motivation as it attempts to hold off the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings (both 11-2) in the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Quarterback Jared Goff could also boost his NFL MVP case by outplaying Buffalo’s Josh Allen , the award’s current favorite.

The Bills and Lions are scheduled for a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday at Ford Field. Television coverage will be on CBS.

Bills-Lions Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 15)

X-Factors

Bills: LT Dion Dawkins

Dawkins earned Pro Bowl selections each of the past three years to establish himself as one of the league’s best blindside protectors. That’s why the Bills felt comfortable giving him a three-year, $60 million contract extension in March.

The 30-year-old Temple product hasn’t played up to that standard this season, though. He’s been called for 13 penalties , which is the NFL’s second-highest total. That includes eight false start infractions, causing the Buffalo offense to play from behind the sticks.

In fairness, Dawkins has still done his most important job (protecting Allen) quite well. He’s received a 80.5 pass blocking grade from Pro Football Focus . His overall grade stands at 69.7, however, because of the penalty problems and struggles in run blocking.

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The Bills can’t afford to rack up a ton of penalties on Sunday. Since it’ll probably be another high-scoring game, even one or two possessions that end in a punt could be the difference. It’s going to take a near-perfect performance to beat the Lions on the road.

Dawkins should handle his matchup with Detroit defensive end Josh Paschal just fine. That’s not the concern. Making sure the flags don’t fly against him is the biggest goal.

Lions: CB Amik Robertson

Robertson, Detroit’s slot corner, faces one of the NFL’s toughest challenges Sunday. He must attempt to slow down Khalil Shakir , Buffalo’s top target and one of the league’s most efficient pass-catchers.

Although Shakir moves around the formation, he figures to work almost exclusively out of the slot this week with the expected return of rookie Keon Coleman . The trio of Coleman, Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins should handle almost all of the perimeter snaps.

While Robertson likely won’t be able to completely shut down Shakir, his task will be limiting the wide receiver’s specialty: yards after the catch. His ability to create separation and then explode into the open space is why he’s third in YAC yardage this season.

Robertson has recorded 34 total tackles, four passes defended and two forced fumbles in 13 appearances this season. The corner’s ability to provide run support has been valuable, but he’s struggled in one-on-one matchups. His PFF coverage grade stands at a lackluster 52.4.

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The 26-year-old Louisiana native will be one of Detroit’s most important players come playoff time. This week is a great test to see if he’s up to the challenge.

Key Matchup

Bills Defensive Linemen vs. Lions Running Backs

The Bills’ defensive quandary was on full display last week. Buffalo strongly prefers to play a two-high safety shell. McDermott doesn’t mind giving up yards with an eye on playing strong in the red zone and causing a few timely turnovers.

Here’s the problem: when the Bills run into a veteran quarterback who can carve up the zone and a strong ground game, they struggle mightily. Kyren Williams ran wild early, which forced Buffalo to bring its safeties into the box, and then Matthew Stafford started playing pitch and catch with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp .

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The defensive line must play a lot better. That’s the only solution. The group has been getting pushed around for a vast majority of the season.

What does that mean? Well, it probably starts with far fewer snaps for Von Miller. The future Hall of Famer has been virtually useless since returning from a four-game suspension. He’s a complete non-factor against the run, so when he isn’t racking up sacks there are a lot of empty plays.

Beyond that, the Bills must get better play from the defensive line tandem of Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. They were one of the league’s best interior duos last year, but that hasn’t carried over. Their lack of impact plays is why opposing running backs are finding such massive running lanes.

Buffalo didn’t have much time to work on fixes, either. Now it’s going up against the Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, which is a nightmare for a defense struggling against the run.

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Here’s how the rushers, nicknamed Sonic and Knuckles, have performed this season:

  • Gibbs: 1,016 rushing yards on 178 carries (5.7 YPC), 10 touchdowns
  • Montgomery: 771 rushing yards on 180 carries (4.3 YPC), 12 touchdowns

The Lions are going to run early and often until the Bills prove they can stop it. Detroit may end up near 40 rushing attempts in the contest.

Final Score Prediction: 38-31 Lions

Quite simply, the Bills have provided no reason to believe they can slow down the Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to establish the run, Buffalo will have to change its defensive structure and Goff will have open throwing lanes to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta.

If that’s indeed how this game plays out, it’ll be fair to question whether the Bills have a legitimate chance of making a deep postseason run. The AFC is loaded with talented offenses and it’s not enough to simply hope turnovers will offset significant baseline problems.

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Allen and the Bills should be able to keep pace, at least for awhile. The offense looks as healthy as it’s been all season, barring any late-week setbacks. So it’s another game where Buffalo’s quarterback might be able to improve his MVP case, even in a loss.

It’s just hard to imagine a scenario where the Bills defense is able to generate consistent stops, especially on the fast turf of Ford Field.

So look for the Lions to increase their winning streak to 12 on Sunday afternoon.

Main Image: Gary A. Vasquez – USA Today Sports

The post Bills vs. Lions Preview: Will Detroit Exploit Buffalo’s Fatal Flaw? appeared first on Last Word on Pro Football .