Amon-Ra St. Brown was a key player for fantasy owners last season, finishing as the overall WR3 . He will no doubt be looked upon to provide the same output again in 2025. In June, we discussed some concerns regarding the possibility of St. Brown being a potential pass at his current ADP. One of the key points we stressed in our off-season fantasy takeaways was the importance of examining data points and coaching changes. That brings us to today’s fantasy outlook regarding St. Brown. There are things to consider before taking him at pick eleven overall. We are not telling you not to draft St. Brown, nor do we consider him a bust. However, to take into account the information on his overall fantasy landscape and his return on value, as you build your fantasy roster.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Outlook: Will He Return First Round Value?
Fantasy Profile: Amon-Ra St. Brown
2024 Year in Review
Last season, as previously stated, Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as the overall PPR WR3. He garnered 141 targets, 115 receptions for 1263 receiving yards, and a career high 12 receiving touchdowns. Among qualified fantasy wide receivers , he was first in catch rate at 81.6%, second in receptions, and was among the best in yards per target with nine.
Some additional data points to consider include: St. Brown finished last season 11th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game. However, that is a drop off from 2023, where he finished in the top six. He fell statistically in two other categories. His fantasy points per game dropped from 17.0 in 2023 to 15.2 last year, and his targets per game decreased from 10.3 in 2023 to 8.3 in 2024.
2025 Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected to score 227 fantasy points, on 107 receptions for 1,197 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. We have two concerns as to St. Brown returning his draft value in 2025. First and foremost, St. Brown is an obvious safe first-round pick, and no one can argue taking him in the first round of fantasy drafts. However, we just do not see him going nuclear like Ja’marr Chase did last season. The effect of fellow Detroit Lions teammate Jameson Williams’ emergence last season was evident. We saw St. Brown drop in expected fantasy points, targets, and fantasy points per game. Couple that with head coach Dan Campbell continuing to talk up Williams again, and does the production slide continue again in 2025?
Do the math, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Williams, and St. Brown are all returning. Are there enough targets and scoring opportunities to go around? Barring injury, something has to give. Touchdown regression could be coming for St. Brown as well. Yes, he had a career high of 12, but his career average is seven per season.
Last season, St. Brown’s 141 targets tied Davante Adams for eighth best among wide receivers. LaPorta had 83 and Gibbs had 63. If what Campbell tells us is true about Williams, then Williams will have to improve upon the 91 targets he had in 2024.
Next, the departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is a concern. Last season, the Lions were top 10 in pass attempts, fifth in completions, and fourth in passing touchdowns. Since Johnson took over as offensive coordinator in 2022, Detroit has finished in the top five in total offense and points scored. In addition, they finished no worse than fifth in expected points per play. Our concern now is with the departure of Johnson as head coach of the Chicago Bears . What will the offense scheme and play calling look like under new playcaller John Morton?
Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football ADP
Amon-Ra St. Brown is going off best ball draft boards as WR6, with an ADP of 11, down two spots from his 9.3 in June. The ability of all the Lions offensive weapons to ‘eat’ in fantasy is a concern, making Amon-Ra most likely a pass for us. We are not necessarily alone in our thinking, either, with the drop in ADP.
Main Photo: [Junfu Han] – USA Today Sports
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