For what feels like the biggest regular season finale in NFL history, we chatted with the one and only @ArifHasanNFL about this highly-anticipated NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.
It isn’t a playoff game, but it might as well be, and we would never pass up the opportunity to get some intel from the opponent’s perspective. We called on Arif Hasan—check out and subscribe to his great work here —to give us some insight into the other 14-2 team in the division, the difference a couple of new edge defenders made in this Brian Flores defense, Sam Darnold’s play-action effectiveness, and what his prediction is for this Week 18 matchup.
Two 14-win teams playing for the NFC North title, the No. 1 seed in the conference, and a chance to earn a week’s worth of much-needed rest in a grueling 18-week schedule. There really isn’t a question here so much as there is a chance to reflect on what feels like the biggest regular season game the NFL has had in recent memory—maybe ever?—and it involves the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings .
This is outstanding. Obviously, the intersection is different for the two teams; the Lions being in the position is meteoric, an incredible repudiation of their past and affirmation of the patient approach Sheila Hamp Ford took when she first hired, and then stuck with, Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes.
For the Vikings it’s refreshing and a great turnaround from where they were at the end of the Zimmer era. Lions fans may see this moment as proof that they’ve arrived and aren’t mere one-year wonders, but Vikings fans might see this moment as another illusory brick in the tower of hope the Vikings have been constructing. Until the clock strikes 0:00 it may be hard to believe that this Vikings team is real.
But I’m not sure I remember as momentous a moment for the league held in an NFC North matchup. I love seeing it. Certainly the Vikings have been in end-of-season key matchups but to see the league watching, knowing they can change everyone else’s outcomes, is special.
Sam Darnold’s season is something no one saw coming from the outside looking in, but when you hear Kevin O’Connell talk about the journeyman quarterback, you can’t even doubt how much those inside the building believed in Darnold and his ability–especially after the Vikings knocked off the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 .
From looking at some of his numbers, one aspect of his game that’s been especially effective—and efficient—this season has been his ability operating under center and off play action (10.6 yards per attempt, 16 TDs, 9.0% big time throw rate; all first in the NFL out of play action). Can you tell us about how KOC and Co. have utilized those to create the best version of Darnold we’ve seen so far?
It’s certainly an interesting element of his play because Darnold is not the play-action maven that Kirk Cousins was. He’s not quite as good at it as Cousins was but also not reliant on it.
That, I think, makes the whole process look better. Darnold can do a lot of different things and that makes deception like play action really effective. The Vikings don’t use play action as often as most Shanahan/McVay teams do, but the design is just as powerful. And they spend a significant time on mechanical details, like the footwork and ball handling on play action.
They have a keen understanding of what defenses are trying to do against various PA looks and seemingly tweak things every few weeks. It’s a great self scouting operation. And I think that’s a big part of the success. And it helps to have a quarterback with a strong arm who takes chances.
The two players on the Vikings defense that have garnered a lot of attention are the new additions: Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard. How has Brian Flores brought these two into the fold and turned this defense into one of the best in the NFL?
It might be the case that people imagine the skill of an edge rusher matters less when one has a heavy blitz scheme, but the emphasis on run defense from interior defensive lineman means they need that rush from the edge. Having the two of them has been critical.
Both are versatile but of the two, Greenard is more of a pure pass rusher that more often lines up on the edge or as an interior linemen on pass rush downs. Andrew Van Ginkel is more of a Swiss army knife; he can line up as an off-ball linebacker or occasionally at safety and overhang. That movement gives him a ton of rush angles and surprisingly good coverage.
That’s the key to making these boutique blitzes work. If you’ve got an edge rusher who can drop and cover or an off-ball linebacker who can rush, you’ve got a new world of possibilities.
What’s been your favorite part of this iteration of the Minnesota Vikings this year–and what are your expectations for them in the playoffs? Does the outcome of this game have an impact on those expectations?
I love the team dynamic, honestly. Most years when I talk about what I like about the team, I’ll talk about the skill of some individual players or the schematic innovations produced by the team.
But it is impossible to watch this team and not fall in love with the atmosphere, something I’m sure Lions fans can relate to. The players love each other. The coaches love the players. Kevin O’Connell getting choked up about Sam Darnold’s journey or Cam Akers’ resilience or Brian Flores’ belief is otherworldly, something I don’t get to experience often covering the NFL.
As for expectations, I think they are a team with the baseline talent to make it to the divisional round, with or without the bye. I wouldn’t be surprised by a conference round appearance though I think the Super Bowl may be out of their grasp.
A win against the Lions takes the governor off, though. Beat the Lions and they have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations in my mind.
The last time these two teams met in Week 7, the Lions got the game-winning field goal with little time for the Vikings to mount a rebuttal. Since then, Minnesota has gone 9-1 and put themselves in position to win this division. The line opened at Lions -3.5, but dipped down to Lions -2.5 earlier on Tuesday, and has since evened out around the standard -3.
What’s your score prediction for this one?
Maaaan. I have no idea what to make of this Lions team. Fully healthy, I easily take them outright. And what they have going is fun; Jameson Williams has come into his own and the offense is operational in a way it wasn’t before with that new element. It’s an exciting offense with a million ways to win.
Defensively, they’re getting it done but it certainly seems much more volatile and reliant on turnovers more than down-to-down play. To me this suggests a shootout with multiple turnovers, perhaps multiple turnovers for both teams. In that environment I think I’ll take the Vikings to cover and win.