Despite having just one 12-team College Football Playoff thus far, changes are already in place for another expansion. Is there a model that benefits Michigan more than another? Let’s find out:
Last season, the 12-team College Football Playoff ruffled some feathers when it came to seeding, automatic bids and first-round byes. Recently, a new playoff format has been introduced for the upcoming season and moving forward, including changes to the seeding and who will get the first-round bye:
“As of 2025, the teams ranked Nos. 1-4 will also be seeded Nos. 1-4 and receive a first-round bye. Previously in the first edition of the 12-team CFP during the 2024 season, the four highest-ranked conference champions received a first-round bye, regardless of ranking.”
This is a solution in the minds of people who didn’t think Arizona State and Boise State deserved an auto bid AND a first-round bye. However, last year’s CFP instantly ended in a loss for every team that had a first-round bye (Oregon, Georgia, ASU, BSU). This change was probably a necessary one, and one that likely won’t have an impact on Michigan or any other specific Power Four team in the future.
However, where things get interesting is CFP expansion. A 16-team model getting some buzz is the 4-4-2-2-1-3 format. This would include four automatic bids for the Big Ten and SEC, while providing two auto bids for the ACC and Big 12. The top non-Power Four team would get an auto bid, while three other schools would receive at-large bids.
One of the main arguments in favor of this format is it seems to take some of the power away from the CFP committee, as they would have to work their rankings into the format. As it pertains to the Wolverines, this model would most likely help if they’re in a scenario where they’re close with teams that don’t have the same national brand. Had Michigan been in a similar spot as Indiana last year, it’s possible to see the Wolverines getting that final spot over the Hoosiers.
Another 16-team option getting a lot of attention is the 5-plus-11 model. This would give five conference champs an auto bid, with 11 at-large teams also making it in. This seems more designed to help teams with high expectations that don’t have a quality resume — teams like Ole Miss , South Carolina and Alabama from last year, for example.
This is the model Michigan probably would benefit from the most because of its brand and tough schedule every year. The athletic department has scheduled some tougher non-conference games over the years, and the Wolverines haven’t always benefited from that. It’s easy to see how the Wolverines might get into this 16-team model, even in a scenario where they have a few losses. The potential downside would be there are fewer and fewer big non-conference games scheduled, which would take away some of the value from the regular season.
What do you think about all of this? Which model benefits Michigan more? Which model would you like to see implemented? Let us know down in the comments!