5-5 Michigan still haven’t earned a bowl berth. Here’s why Michigan’s tilt against Northwestern is a must-win for bowl eligibility.
After a National Championship season in 2023 for the Michigan Wolverines they’re now in a situation in 2024 where we’re past midway through November and they have yet to clinch bowl eligibility.
Michigan’s missed a bowl game twice in the past ten years — in 2020 during a 2-4 COVID-19 shortened season when the Wolverines went 2-4, and in 2014 when they finished 5-7 in Brad Hoke’s last year as head coach
Michigan, now 5-5, has two regular season games remaining — home versus Northwestern and away against No. 2 Ohio State (9-1).
Per ESPN Analytics, Michigan has a 79.6% chance of beating Northwestern, but just a 7.1% chance of defeating Ohio State. These percentages really magnify how important beating Northwestern is for Michigan to earn a bowl berth.
A bowl game is the bare minimum for a prestigious program like Michigan and head coach Sherrone Moore sees the value an extra game has heading into 2025.
“It’s huge for the program. Playing another game, getting another chance to play with your team, but building on the future,” Moore said. “Building, getting more practice. It’s like another spring ball for the young guys. It’s more football for the guys that do keep getting better at football.”
There’s no guarantee Michigan even gets a win against Northwestern, they’ll have to earn it despite being the favorite. Michigan ranks No. 129 in total offense and No. 38 in total defense while Northwestern ranks No. 130 in total offense and No. 58 in total defense. Things become exponentially more unfavorable for Michigan against Ohio State, who have the No. 17 total offense and No. 2 total defense.
Northwestern is 4-6 and still could make a bowl if they beat Michigan and Illinois to close out the season. Northwestern head coach David Braun said the team is focused on bowl eligibility and expects a time of possession-influenced, grind-it-out type of game against Michigan.
“If you look at these two teams, as Northwestern and Michigan match up, it’s most likely going to be a limited possession football game. Every possession is so critical,” Braun said.
Michigan’s coming off back-to-back losses against Oregon and Indiana and desperately needs to regain their footing in the final two contests. If Michigan does pick up a win against Northwestern only then will they have the proper momentum and juice heading into The Game against the Buckeyes.