Michigan Football’s strength of schedule is much more friendly this season than it was last year, and it could help spark a run to the College Football Playoff in 2025:
Evaluating a team’s strength of schedule (SOS) before any games have been played is by definition an arbitrary task. However, it hasn’t stopped — and won’t stop — people from looking at future schedules and analyzing every nook and cranny of it.
Michigan’s 2025 schedule doesn’t look incredibly imposing, and some preseason SOS metrics back that up. Could the Wolverines’ relatively soft schedule help propel them to the College Football Playoff (CFP) this year?
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer made news this week by complaining about the SEC’s difficult SOS :
Yeah, you kind of wonder what would have happened to other people if they had the chance to play our schedule last year, and it would only get tougher.
Apparently in DeBoer’s mind, losing to bad Vanderbilt and Oklahoma teams just didn’t matter. However, it brings to light what Big Ten and SEC teams think of when scheduling non-conference games, as well as the ongoing eight vs. nine conference game debate in the SEC.
Bill Connelly of ESPN is the most prominent SOS ranking creator, and he has Michigan with the 38th-toughest schedule in the country.
Now that 2025 CFB schedules are officially set, here’s the projected top 40 for SP+ strength of schedule.
(Reminder: The SOS rating is the projected win% an average top-5 team could expect against your schedule. OU and Florida will need to be top-5 caliber to go even 9-3.) pic.twitter.com/Lf3sKcgaLD
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) March 5, 2025
By those same metrics, Michigan is projected to win 9.3 games, much higher than what Vegas currently has with the O/U set at 8.5 wins.
As a reminder, here is what Michigan’s schedule looks like this fall:
- Week 1: vs. New Mexico
- Week 2: at Oklahoma
- Week 3: vs. Central Michigan
- Week 4: at Nebraska
- Week 5: Bye
- Week 6: vs. Wisconsin
- Week 7: at USC
- Week 8: vs. Washington
- Week 9: at Michigan State
- Week 10: vs. Purdue
- Week 11: Bye
- Week 12: at Northwestern
- Week 13: at Maryland
- Week 14: vs. Ohio State
In my eyes, the schedule is bookended with difficult games. Oklahoma in Week 2 will be a great litmus test for Chip Lindsey’s new offense. The Game at the end of the year could decide the CFP fates of one or both teams. In the middle, Michigan has tricky, but not impossible games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, USC and Washington.
What’s more notable is there is no Oregon and Penn State on Michigan’s 2025 schedule. Both are expected to be at or near the top of the Big Ten this year, so avoiding both could be instrumental to the Wolverines’ CFP hopes.
In the inaugural 12-team playoff in 2024, only one three-loss team made the field, but that was the ACC champion Clemson Tigers. No at-large teams made the CFP with more than two losses. With the 38th-toughest schedule — and the eighth-highest win total projection of the teams in the top-40 — it’s not a large leap to say the Wolverines could go 10-2. Michigan also has the fourth-highest odds to win the Big Ten. Coincidentally, four Big Ten teams made the CFP in 2024.
Another aspect of SOS rankings that favors the Wolverines is the difficulty of the rest of the Big Ten’s schedules. Wisconsin (No. 4), Rutgers (16), Purdue (17), Northwestern (18), UCLA (19), USC (20), Ohio State (21), Iowa (22), Michigan State (26), Minnesota (27), Washington (28), Penn State (29), Indiana (31), Oregon (32) and Nebraska (35) all have tougher schedules than Michigan on paper. Additionally, you can’t claim they planned the soft SOS, as the Wolverines have one of the toughest non-conference games of anyone in the conference with a road game at Oklahoma.
Put it all together, and there’s a world where the Michigan Wolverines exceed expectations and make the CFP in 2025. A favorable conference draw, along with unfavorable conference matchups for some of Michigan’s rivals, could create a perfect storm this fall.