What Michigan must do to make the College Football Playoff in 2024

What will it take for Michigan to make the College Football Playoffs in 2024? Let’s break down the scenarios.

We are less than a month away from the Michigan Wolverines kicking off their 2024 football season. They’re sitting on the mountaintop as the reigning college football national champions and they look to defend their Big Ten title as well heading into the new season.

Despite Jim Harbaugh and several key players heading to the NFL, a new standard has been set in Ann Arbor. The expectation for Sherrone Moore and this new look Michigan squad is the same: competing for the Big Ten, the College Football Playoff and a national title.

Offseason additions of the Washington Huskies, USC Trojans, Oregon Ducks, and UCLA Bruins make it significantly more difficult to win the now loaded Big Ten. However, that is no longer a requirement to make the playoffs, as the the new postseason structure expands to 12 teams. A conference title secures a spot in the dance, but it’s not necessarily the only way these Wolverines could compete for the national championship in 2024.

Michigan’s 2024 schedule is potentially the most difficult we have seen in the last decade. It’s going to be grueling for these players to face three of maybe the top five teams in college football this season on top of a already stronger Big Ten. But, this also plays heavily in their favor.

Last year and in year’s past, a single loss was detrimental to any teams potential of making the postseason. Now, that’s an ideology that is going to change drastically over the course of the next few years while the playoffs are at 12 and potentially expanding further.

The committee has made it apparent that they value the quality of competition in the Big Ten and SEC much higher than their competitors. It’s part of the reason why Florida State was surpassed by a one-loss Alabama team last season. Alabama hosted the Texas Longhorns , their only regular season loss, on top of playing a perfect SEC season. That was enough to push them over the Seminoles because of an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis. But I also wonder if that may have happened anyway because of the bias that the committee has shown to the SEC and Big Ten since its inception.

Two SEC teams have made the College Football Playoffs twice in it’s 10-year span, and the Big Ten has done it once as well. With the expansion by both parties, that bias is only going to grow even further in 2024 and beyond.

So what do the Wolverines have to do to find a spot in the College Football Playoffs in 2024?

The most obvious answer we have covered already, winning the Big Ten. If they go undefeated again, they are in. Even a loss in Week 2 to Texas and a perfect finish would do the trick.

But, let’s say they don’t win the conference and are gunning for one of the at-large bids. The five highest ranked conference champions are automatic bids, and the next seven highest ranked teams will find their way into the playoffs after that. That means there is a strong case for two and maybe even three loss teams to sneak into the postseason tournament.

If Michigan losses three games however, I could see it being really difficult for them to nab a spot. Even with a strong schedule, those losses are likely coming at the hands of Texas, Ohio State , and Oregon. DraftKings SportsBook has their win total heading into August sitting at nine, likely with those three contests being the catalyst for if they get to 10 wins.

A 10-win marker with this schedule almost surely means they are in the playoff. A win against Texas or Oregon at home or at Ohio State at the end of the season feels like enough to push them into the fold. That’s especially the case because it is very likely that all three of those teams find a way into the playoffs themselves.

But what this also means is that Michigan has to take care of business against the rest of the conference. Specific games that I have my eyes on are at home against USC, heading to Washington, the Michigan State game, and on the road against Indiana.

All of these teams are going to be gunning for the Wolverines for different reasons. USC had a down season last year with Caleb Williams, and this will be their opportunity to prove that they are a contender for the Big Ten in year one. Washington is obvious, losing to Michigan in the national title last year. Even with the coaching and personnel changes, going to Seattle and playing in that time difference won’t be an easy task. Michigan State got dogged last year at home and will want revenge under their new coaching staff. And, Curt Cignetti already has a vindictive motion towards the Wolverines, saying at his introduction that Purdue, Michigan, and Ohio State suck:

In simple terms, Michigan needs to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and beat one of their three CFP-caliber opponents to comfortably be in the playoffs by season’s end. With this schedule, it’s safe to say that 10 wins will be enough to get the job done. Anything less than that, and it’s going to be very easy to overlook the reigning champions for another squad even with the Big Ten and national brand bias that might keep them on the bubble for most of the season.