2024 was the first season for four former Pac-12 schools in the Big Ten. What would have happened in 2024 had the Pac-12 never dissolved?
The 2024 college football season was full of change. The expansion of the College Football Playoff (CFP), conference realignment, and the continued advancements of NIL were leading the charge of change. For the Big Ten, 2024 was the first season with Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA.
But what would have happened if the Pac-12 never dissolved?
First, let’s examine how school did in 2024. There’s no denying Big Ten play is tougher than Pac-12 play was in recent years. That makes Oregon’s 12-0, Big Ten Championship season even more impressive. USC, UCLA and Washington, however, didn’t have the same success. USC and Washington went 6-6, while UCLA missed out on bowl eligibility with a 5-7 record.
The Pac-12 schools who fled for the ACC had rough seasons themselves. Despite having the honor of hosting College GameDay for the first time, Cal hit a tough stretch in the middle of the season on the way to a 6-6 record with a bowl loss to UNLV. Stanford finished a forgettable 3-9.
On the other hand, some of the schools that landed in the Big 12 had success. Arizona State won the Big 12 in its first year in the conference and went to the CFP. Colorado also had a nice 9-4 season.
Had the Pac-12 never dissolved, they would have had two powerhouse teams in Arizona State and Oregon battling it out for conference supremacy. As the Ducks went undefeated until the CFP, let’s assume they would have won the Pac-12 and retained the No. 1 overall seed. Under the CFP structure of 2024 (which lasted all of one year), Arizona State would have been on the bubble.
In the conference supremacy battle, the Pac-12 would have clearly been a step below the SEC and Big Ten. However, without the Pac-12 schools bailing for the Big 12, those two conferences would have likely been on par with each other in 2024.
As for Big Ten play itself, it’s impossible to know exactly what would have happened as scheduling would have been different for each program. Undoubtedly, the established programs that now didn’t have to play Oregon would have benefitted from an easier schedule. Teams like Michigan and Ohio State could have picked up an easier win had they faced a weaker team rather than Oregon.
If you remove the regular season loss from Ohio State’s record, that would have created a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten between Indiana, Penn State and Ohio State. As the Buckeyes beat both Penn State and Indiana, they would have made the Big Ten Championship despite the loss to Michigan. To break the tie between Indiana and Penn State, it likely would have come down to the conference records of their opponents. This would favor Penn State, as Indiana’s schedule was about as easy as it gets.
A Penn State vs. Ohio State rematch would have decided who got a top-three seed in the CFP. The loser of that game, along with Indiana, still would have almost assuredly made the CFP, but it would have been just those three programs representing the Big Ten.
This incredibly hypothetical and subjective exercise taught me a few things. First, the dissolution of the Pac-12 was incredibly sad to college football purists. California schools playing in West Lafayette in November will never make sense to me. Additionally, conference realignment didn’t have a large impact on who made the CFP. The only team it would appear to have impacted in that regard is Arizona State, which may have never made the field with two losses and no conference championship.
Lastly, and most importantly, who you play on the schedule is everything. In a conference with 18 teams, you’re only playing half the conference each year. Strength of schedule can vary wildly when that’s the case. Teams that would have already played a tough Big Ten schedule, but then had a program of Oregon’s caliber added to it, were punished. We’re going to see more and more programs like Indiana make the CFP, as those schools ill have fantastic records with no notable wins to speak of.