Yet again, Michigan basketball seems destined for far too many close contests, with most ending up poorly. Here are three thoughts on the heels of back-to-back overtime affairs:
Sunday, the Michigan Wolverines did something they had not accomplished in 23 months: win in overtime. Five straight losses, including Thursday’s at Minnesota, comprised that span, emblematic of an even broader issue. Though the head coach has changed, and nearly the entire roster has turned over, the past three seasons have seen the Wolverines essentially collapse every time there is a close game, and boy, there have been plenty of them.
The numbers are shocking: when the clock hits zero at the end of regulation, 32 of the past 84 games have seen Michigan leading or trailing by no more than six points. Yes, over 38 percent of the games since 2022-23 have essentially been decided by one or two possessions. Seven of 18 games (38.9 percent) under Dusty May meet this criteria, so he has picked up right where Juwan Howard left off.
Close games are nothing new to college basketball, even though the Wolverines experience them at a rate well above average, so should we really care? Unequivocally, very much so. In these 32 close contests, Michigan has won a whopping NINE of them, good for a .281 winning percentage.
While the sample size is still small, anyone watching the past three seasons can attest to the fact that this team is not set up to be late-game killers; if anything, it almost feels like these scenarios are the worst situations for this group. May has been impressive on the whole, but to fully revive this program, this is an area he must address.
Here are three thoughts on escaping this painful reality on the heels of back-to-back overtime affairs.
Who is The Guy?
With so many games coming down to a shot or two, it is difficult when the roster does not have an obvious player to take the ball. The most electric playmaker is ostensibly Danny Wolf, but his wildness gives me pause. I admire his willingness and ability to make something happen, whether it be attacking the rim or slinging passes, but his abysmal turnover rate creates a big downside as well.
The traditional answer would be the point guard, but Tre Donaldson has yet to consistently prove he can be that player. Donaldson does shoot well from three (41.8 percent) but he not been able to push Michigan over the top when trailing late. Vlad Goldin has been able to do that some, but as Big Ten defenses are figuring out how to slow him down, the formula is not so easy.
Ultimately, despite ridiculously efficient shooting numbers for much of the season, the Wolverines still look a bit unsure with the clock winding down. There are definitely benefits to having multiple players able to take the last shot, but in reality it means multiple players have fallen short when given the chance.
Charity
After top-100 finishes in free-throw percentage in 2021-22 and 2022-23, the Wolverines finished in the 200s the next two seasons and are just 176th nationally right now (72.1 percent). Though not the the sole reason for the four losses this season, free throws clearly have made an impact; three misses late on Thursday easily could have made a difference against the Gophers.
Protecting a lead is much harder when Michigan leaves the door open via points left at the line. For a team that is playing on a razor’s edge, a single point in either direction can be massive. The fact that Donaldson and Wolf struggle at the line really complicates this squad’s ability to see out games. Even potentially steady wins have fallen into the two-possession category, often because teams are finding success fouling the Wolverines.
The best way to avoid close losses
…is to avoid close games in the first place. EvanMiya has Michigan about average in giving up kill shots (10-plus scoring runs), though many of these have come with a big response by the offense. However, this has always seemed like living on the edge, and the Wolverines saw second-half leads slip away in each of their four defeats.
It goes without saying that protecting leads is important, but for a team that has suffered so many close losses over the past three seasons, this needs to be at the top of May’s priorities. Turnovers and untimely defensive lapses are the big culprits, but really the solution is just playing better situational ball. Until that happens, the narrow losses are unlikely to end, and ultimately that puts a ceiling on what this team can be.