With just a handful of regular season games left, we have a pretty good idea of which teams are legitimate contenders to win the NCAA Tournament. Here are the favorites to win March Madness, according to Torvik and KenPom:
Believe it or not, the college basketball regular season ends this Sunday. Conference tournaments have already begun at the mid-major level, and will do so shortly for the power conferences. With Selection Sunday about a week away, who do the advanced stats favor to win the National Championship?
We turned to both Torvik and KenPom to see where they see things going as of today.
Tier 1: Duke (T: No. 1 overall, KP: No. 1)
What used to be a Duke/Auburn vs. the field discussion is slowly starting to turn into a Duke vs. the field argument. The Blue Devils have pulled away in the advanced stats department, as KenPom gives them a NetRtg of 39.37, nearly three points better than Auburn’s 36.46.
Cooper Flagg’s Duke team has lost just one game since Thanksgiving, so it would be a stunner if the Blue Devils didn’t at least make a decent run.
Tier 2: Houston (T: 2, KP: 3), Auburn (3/2)
Auburn may have lost pace with Duke, but is still right up there when it comes to the national conversation. Having lost to Texas A&M this week, it will be interesting to see how the Tigers rebound.
L.J. Cryer and the Houston Cougars have rapidly ascended and are loved specifically by Torvik, which gives them an 18.5 percent chance at winning it all. KenPom has the Cougars behind Auburn, but still solidly in the top-three.
Tier 3: Florida (4/4), Tennessee (6/5), Alabama (5/6)
The true strength of the SEC can be found in this tier. Auburn was clearly the class of the conference this year, but Florida, Tennessee and Alabama are all having excellent seasons and are legitimate contenders. Florida is slightly above the other two on both Torvik and KenPom, but look for potentially two of these teams to make a deep run.
Tier 4: Texas Tech (7/7), Arizona (8/14), Wisconsin (9/10), Michigan St. (10/9), Purdue (11/12), BYU (12/23), Missouri (13/15), Iowa St. (14/11), Maryland (15/13), Gonzaga (16/8)
There is a pretty clear line between the top-six teams in the country and everyone else, as things start to get murky in this tier. Both sites see Texas Tech as the best of this group, but there is a pretty big gap between the Red Raiders and the teams ahead of them in the above group.
The parity of the Big Ten can also be found here, as four teams show up in a tight band in the rankings. If history has told us anything, it’s to expect one or more of these teams to make the Final Four, but you can also expect a handful of these teams to be upset early on.
Tier 5: Kentucky (17/16), Texas A&M (18/20), St. John’s (19/17), Illinois (20/19), Clemson (21/18), Louisville (22/24), Saint Mary’s (23/21), Kansas (24/22)
Compared to the AP Poll, it’s a bit surprising to see St. John’s down here. The advanced stats clearly don’t favor the Red Storm. These teams are capable of beating any of the teams above them, but have some serious flaws that could rear their ugly heads at the worst time.
Honorable Mentions: UCLA, Ole Miss
, Michigan, Georgia, Marquette, VCU, Baylor
Sadly, Michigan falls in this category. Thanks to a disastrous past few weeks, the Wolverines find themselves 29th on KenPom and 27th on Torvik with just a 0.3 percent chance of winning the National Championship. Given preseason expectations, it has still been a successful season for Dusty May and company, but it’s tough not to imagine what could have been.