Michigan is NCAA Tournament bound, but still need four wins to reach the Final Four. Today, we take a look at what the easiest (and hardest) ways to get through the bracket are:
In a remarkable turn of events for the Michigan basketball program, the Wolverines are NCAA Tournament bound for the first time since 2022. While it’s a great accomplishment for Dusty May and his squad, the stakes only get higher from here, as the Wolverines will try to make a Final Four and National Championship push.
Filling out a bracket for the NCAA Tournament is a timeless tradition, but unfortunately so is having that bracket turn to kindling before the end of the first round. March has proven to be full of madness (I’m here all week), and the art of picking a bracket — or at least the perfect one — is nearly an impossible task.
In a full 64-team bracket, there’s over nine quintillion combinations (9 with 18 zeroes), but today, we’ll just be determining what the easiest and hardest paths are for Michigan to win the South Region. That means we’ll narrow it down to just a 16-team bracket and a mere 32,768 possible combinations. Easy, right? My dog could do that.
Of course, there are certain combinations we know won’t happen, like a 16-seed winning in the first or even the second round, so we’ll try to keep these projections within reason. In other words, think of these as the most likely of the hard paths, and the most likely of the easy paths.
Without further ado, let’s get into the projections.
Hardest Path
No. 12 UC San Diego, No. 4 Texas A&M, No. 1 Auburn, No. 2 Michigan State
When finding the hardest path for the Wolverines, we don’t have to do much more than go with the chalk method. If the higher-seeded teams win games, it will make Michigan’s path harder.
Regardless, Michigan will play UC San Diego in the opener, which is a tough draw on its own. The Tritons have been one of the best mid-major teams all season, enter with a 30-4 record, and are No. 36 on KenPom . Between offense and defense, they’re pretty balanced, but they hit lots of threes and force turnovers at a high clip. Those are key ingredients for a team to pull off an upset, and they should play Michigan tough.
After the first round, a date with Texas A&M would be difficult in the Round of 32. The Aggies have been a bit inconsistent, but when they’re on, they’re really on. Texas A&M leads the nation in offensive rebounding and is pretty stout defensively. Michigan has a knack for giving teams second chances, so this could be a big hurdle in this matchup.
Moving on to a matchup with Auburn, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, the toughness of this matchup needs little explanation. The Tigers have been considered the best team in America for much of the year and boast a lineup that’s both deep and experienced. Despite their recent skid, they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
Finally, to round out this scenario, we’d see Michigan facing Michigan State for the third time this season. The Spartans have had their way against Michigan this year, winning both matchups by a combined 30 points. Michigan State is great defensively and solid on offense despite not lighting it up from three-point range. The Wolverines haven’t been their best against Tom Izzo and company this year, and a third matchup would certainly be tough as well.
Easiest Path
No. 12 UC San Diego, No. 13 Yale, No. 9 Creighton, No. 7 Marquette
Of course, even on Michigan’s “easy” path it would start with UC San Diego once again. For all the good that the Tritons do, they’re still relatively untested — the best teams they’ve played are Utah State and San Diego State. Furthermore, what if their three-point shooting runs dry? What if their aggressive defense leads to fouls rather than turnovers? Michigan is a popular upset pick in the first round, but a big win is still within the range of outcomes.
Yale over Texas A&M in the first round is another possible upset, as the Bulldogs can shoot well from deep and rebound well on both ends. However, like UC San Diego, they’re untested and haven’t played many opponents of Michigan’s caliber this year. Furthermore, an off night from their best player John Poulakidas could complicate things for them.
It might not be so far fetched for Creighton to make it this far, as the Blue Jays are in a toss-up 8/9 matchup. Furthermore, center Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the few in the nation that can go toe-to-toe with Auburn’s Johni Broome. Creighton turns the ball over plenty, meaning the Wolverines could win this matchup if they take care of the ball themselves.
To round out our chaos scenario, I don’t think we could rule out a sleeper run from Marquette. The Golden Eagles’ record and resume have been bogged down thanks to a rough second half to the season, but they were solid earlier in the year and are still ranked No. 28 on KenPom. They’ve been prone to hot and cold stretches from deep, so they could ride Kam Jones and the three-ball to this Elite Eight matchup. They’re soft in the middle though and can’t always be relied on to bury shots, meaning a Michigan victory is possible.
Of course, this “easy” scenario would mean plenty of chaos and is far less likely than the previously described “hard” scenario, but keep these keys in mind if Michigan runs into any of these teams during its tournament run.