Now that the brackets are out, who got the best draw amongst the eight Big Ten teams to make the NCAA Tournament? We take a look:
Selection Sunday came and went with as much fanfare as it always does. For Michigan fans, the exuberance of winning the Big Ten Tournament lasted about 30 minutes before making way for annoyance at being under-seeded in the NCAA Tournament. However, not every Big Ten team is unhappy with where they were seeded by the committee.
Today, we explore which Big Ten teams got the most favorable draw and which didn’t.
Most Favorable
Wisconsin: 3-seed in the East
It was as if the Big Ten Tournament Championship never happened. The Badgers were rewarded with a 3-seed despite the loss and will face 14-seed Montana, whom KenPom has as the worst 14-seed and No. 157 overall. Should higher seeds hold, Wisconsin would see 6-seed BYU in the second round. The Cougars are ranked 24th by KenPom and are one of the weaker 6-seed as well. The Badgers certainly lucked out with their path.
Michigan State: 2-seed in the South
The Spartans were widely expected to be a 2-seed, so that comes as no surprise. However, they were rewarded with an especially cushy road to the Elite Eight. 15-seed Bryant is barely within the KenPom top-150, and a potential matchup with 7-seed Marquette wouldn’t be too tough considering the Golden Eagles are the lowest ranked 7-seed on KenPom.
Michigan State would then get 3-seed Iowa State if seeds hold to form. The Cyclones just lost star guard Keshon Gilbert for the season, who was Iowa State’s second-leading scorer. All that to say, it would be more surprising if Michigan State didn’t make the Elite Eight than if they did.
Maryland: 4-seed in the West
Another one of Michigan’s Big Ten Tournament victims, Maryland was able to hang on to a 4-seed and will face 13-seed Grand Canyon. The Antelopes are an adequate mid-major having won the WAC, but they shouldn’t be much competition.
After that, Maryland will get either 6-seed Memphis or 11-seed Colorado State. As of now, this is the most likely first-round upset, as Vegas has Colorado State favored outright. Should Memphis pull it out as the higher seed, the health of Tyrese Hunter will be central to this matchup, as Hunter missed the AAC Tournament Championship.
Least Favorable
UCLA: 7-seed in the Midwest
The Bruins were hurt the worst by the bracket. Per Bracket Matrix , they were the highest rated 7-seed and were projected to be above two other higher-seeded teams in 6-seed Missouri and 5-seed Memphis. Their reward (or punishment) is a Round of 64 matchup with 10-seed Utah State, which is No. 52 on KenPom.
Should they win that game, the Bruins immediately get the highest rated 2-seed, Tennessee. A brutal draw for the Bruins.
Michigan: 5-seed in the South
The Big Ten Tournament clearly didn’t impact the selection committee whatsoever. Despite winning head-to-head in three consecutive days, Michigan is seeded behind Purdue (4-seed), Maryland (4-seed) and Wisconsin (3-seed). In games against those three teams, Michigan went 5-2 this season.
The Wolverines will face 12-seed UC San Diego, which is KenPom’s No. 36 team in the country. For context, that’s higher than one 5-seed, two 9-seeds, all four 10-seeds and three 11-seeds. If they weren’t a mid-major, there’s no chance the Tritons would be all the way down on the 12-seed line. Statistically, this is one of the best 12-seeds of all-time.
Should the Wolverines advance, they will face off with either Danny Wolf’s former team, 13-seed Yale, or 4-seed Texas A&M. The Aggies are the highest rated 4-seed on Bracket Matrix, but there is a large gap between the top three seed lines and A&M. KenPom has them at No. 17 overall and the second-worst 4-seed.
Michigan’s spot in this category is solely because of UC San Diego and the fact the game will be played at elevation and on short rest with the game being Thursday at 10 p.m. ET.